[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

I think we are now seeing an escalation again…..I thought the hemispheric cold pattern would be setting up now for a cold/to very cold last 1/3rd of month, doesn’t seem so.  I think last 1/3rd is still on…..maybe a very quick switch?  Still holding out for something notable and lengthy…..

 

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[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 blizzard81 I agree and an awful lot of the GFS ensemble runs do too.  Far from a done deal at this stage.  I love run 26…..if only

 

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[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 

could be an extraordinary end to 18z. LP over Iceland to drop SSE, Atlantic ridging to Greenland and linking to arctic HP?

 

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[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 TEITS made me laugh when I read it Dave.  

Going forward as the 06z shows I think a quick switch will occur and models generally aren’t picking up on it yet.  The difference between 0z and 06z is shining example….vastly different

 

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[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 TEITS agreed Dave….expect humdinger charts to build

 

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[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

SSW incoming, QTR incoming, ECM signalling this…..keep watching, don’t give up the ghost….not yet

 

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[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 daz_4 you are ‘expecting’ a now scenario.  It isn’t now….10-14 for cold set up to develop….last 1/3rd of Feb into early March….I think ‘potential’ wallop.  Of cse North UK in for ‘early fun’

 

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[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Shenanigans.  GFS earlier was on Diazepam.  We now see the creep/shift back to the ‘anticipated’ scenario.  Stick with it, don’t take each run as gospel…no matter what it shows.  Watch the 24hr run for run, for me winter is still returning 

 

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[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 bluearmy indeed Nick there is complete agreement on this week!

 

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[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 E17boy  I think be prepared/of mindset we miss out, but if the LP does slide E/ SE as I anticipate then there is a chance the snow will shift southwards as it clears.

 

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[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

I’m liking the synoptic development of the 06z a lot….and as crazy as it sounds it’s a run that is pretty much on my money.   Timings look pretty good too.  Icon and 06z GFS sliding the LP into near continent is how I saw and still see it.  Then where the GFS heads to in deep FI….yep I like it and ‘generally’ how I think it will pan out.  HP moving north/ NW settling there with troughing to our E /SE = cold to very cold with chances of snow aplenty…..Our winter is arriving it would seem.

 

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[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 northwestsnow they won’t be conclusive no matter how ‘improved’ or worse they look

 

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[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 mountain shadow which shows the lack of confidence at such short range and further chances of more adjustments .

In their update they even quote that details could well change over coming days.  

I agree with @damianslaw that it could take up to at least Wednesday before it’s settled

 

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[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

So my take on it.  ECM and UKMO more on the money (and quite a few GFS ensemble runs).  Snow moving S S/E after striking Midlands, Mid Wales Notrth etc as the LP slides into Low Countries.  Cold HP to move over the UK from West (cold nights particularly).  Then I’m ‘really’ keeping my eye on the developments after that….potentially where even more wintry set up develops.  Lots to watch and wait for…but I’m with the UKMO and ECM direction with the shift S of the LP after it hits our shores.

 

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[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Personally I’m focused beyond Friday, ie from 10-14 Feb inwards….but am watching with interest the developments.  Living in the SE I’m not anticipating anything next week, but if my suspicions are correct, there’s some potential serious winter weather to come.  
Don’t discount that strong anomaly signal for HP to our NW

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[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 

now we are talking.  There’s more to resolve….but winter is definitely looking to come back.  I don’t think the exact track will be resolved for a couple of days yet

 

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[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

It would seem around the 7th is the day to watch….that marks the southward extent of the cold from the north before the LP coming up from the SW engages with the cold air.

 

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[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

For me we / I zoned in for 10-14 Feb for the next cold spell to strike (with Scotland/North maybe a touch earlier) before I went skiing last month.  I think the latter half of Feb that many places across the board are in with a chance of decent snowfall throughout the rest of the month.  I suspect some parts of our islands will get walloped but if anywhere is to miss is the far south/SE on the initial contact…..  We shall see how this develops…..an easterly down the line ‘with bite’ imo is not out of the equation.  All aboard the rollercoaster.

 

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[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 northwestsnow a ‘myriad’ of widespread snowfall events are beckoning 

 

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[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 TEITS at his best.  I concur Sir…glad to have you on here Dave

 

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[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Kasim Awan just a frame.  You can’t call a west based -ve NAO on 12 hours….

 

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[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Kasim Awan I don’t know what you are looking at re west based NAO?

 

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[Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks]

 northwestsnow way too early for MetO to jump in (though I suspect it’s very much on their ‘radar’ of thoughts).  
However, 10-14 for me on track, Scotland and far north before as was likely.  Watch mode now for increasingly wintry synoptics to appear, with the south also in the mix for a ‘proper’ winter episode.

 

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[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Back from Austria, beautiful week but progressively thaw conditions in resort, plenty of good snow 1570 metres upwards.

I posted 10-14 Feb re cold signal/set up prior to leaving, I think that’s still about the right timescale….albeit Scotland and high levels of Northern England could see something v early next week.  
 

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[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted Sunday at 17:35

Location: Redhill, Surrey

I’ve got a feeling that a HP for mainly the south and near continent is looking  to set up shop after the weekend….and dig it’s heels in.
 Going to wait until Wednesday and see where we are then….as there can be adjustments …but Kaprun for 20-27 is looking HP dominated with chilly nights but mildish sunny days.  Still there’s a lovely snowbase in place and a Glacier

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So we are at Friday, and to me the HP looks like it will ‘generally’ be in situ as suggested.  I suspect we’ll be in a similar place on my return on 27th.  Be nice to return to something far more juicy looking, but for now have a good week….I think I might.

 

ECM for 29/1….be interesting to see what it looks like at t48.

 

regards

 

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