[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

56 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

It could very well be early mate in all honesty. The date is just an educated guess that has more chance of being wrong than right for the start of a pattern change to one conducive to high lat blocking near scandi or Iceland. I do feel fairly confident of us being in a favourable pattern however by mid Feb at the very latest. Your opinion based on the ens suites at this moment in time is well founded. Evidence would suggest at this moment in time that your timings are more likely to be correct pal

10-14 Feb at earliest, could have a lot of HP ‘domination’ in Feb prior.  Can’t see a cold signal appearing before then

 BFTP

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

On 15/01/2024 at 10:00, Josh Rubio said:

Can’t help but think looking at the models beyond the mild spell, trying to find any hope of further cold/snowy weather is just setting yourself up for further disappointment. 

Definitely forget January from this weekend…..it will be ‘westerly fayre’ as everyone knows.   Then one must think that cold won’t just happen overnight….the pattern change would take longer than that so for me at least 1st week of Feb is out too.  Yes I am writing off 2 weeks.  Then we’ll see what’s brewing.

 

BFTP

[Moans, ramps and banter]

1 hour ago, Lord Grogon said:

If I'm not mistaken, wasn't Feb 86 the imfamous "too cold for snow" month?

It was Feb 86….but in Swansea we had a huge dumping before it got incredibly cold and the snow, with top ups mid month, remained all month like it would in Alpine villages …..amazing month

my favourite winter month of all time.

 

BFTP

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

 

19th Jan 1986…..anyway back from that?

 

BFTP

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

37 minutes ago, Cambrian said:

These are interesting to look at - the 0z EPS 200mb winds for the North Atlantic, synonymous with the jet stream.

The animation for days 1-5 shows its reinvigoration, heading northeast out of the US, making a beeline towards the UK and Ireland.

Days 6-10 shows the northern arm of the jet stream readily weakening and dipping south over the mid Atlantic before splitting (bifurcating is the word I am told!) around the southern European high pressure. 

To be taken with a pinch of salt for days 10-15, but at face value, some indications that the northern arm will continue to weaken, with the southern arm becoming more dominant. The trend over the US is interesting with the jet stream noticeably sinking south and strengthening towards the end of the run, which raises the eyebrows with a longer range mean. 

This all fits with the strong NAO+ signal in yesterday’s ECM46 weather regime forecast becoming established by the 21st, but as currently shown, it’s a relatively sharp peaking in mobility that weakens by the end of the month, with a strong and persistent blocking signal thereafter. 

  

The pressure anomalies for the first two weeks of February show high pressure steadily building north through the UK and Ireland, consistent with the weakening of the northern arm of the Atlantic jet stream shown in the EPS. 

A long way off, but something considerably more blocked being indicated, possibly worth looking out for more evidently coming into the range of the NWP models over the next few days.

 Brilliant post.  Yes we see this Euro HP set up, it isn’t going away but it doesn’t mean it will be a slug in situ…..the gradual shift northward (be it N/NE/NE) plausible, if slow.  
It is what it is from this weekend, but don’t despair.  I’m still waiting for Wednesday to see what signals are picked up….but enough in the 06 suite to keep me nicely interested

 BFTP

[Worldwide Mountain & Snow Sports Discussion 2023/24]

1 hour ago, WINTRY WALES said:

Love Austria too! Mayerhofen my favorite ski resort to date

Mine was Kitzbuhel, beautiful village and great Apres…..but Saalbach for skiing….micro climate giving incredible ski conditions 

 

BFTP

 

BFTO

[Worldwide Mountain & Snow Sports Discussion 2023/24]

I ski’d Val D’Isere last year, when you get flat light it makes skiing so much tougher.  We went by train too, recommend it.

20/1 i’m returning to Austria, my favourite ski country.  Going to Kaprun.  Looks very cold first 36 hrs then a reasonable warm up….could be Spring like….but it’s difficult to tell up the mountains , wind direction can make huge differences

 

BFTP

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

I’ve got a feeling that a HP for mainly the south and near continent is looking  to set up shop after the weekend….and dig it’s heels in.
 Going to wait until Wednesday and see where we are then….as there can be adjustments …but Kaprun for 20-27 is looking HP dominated with chilly nights but mildish sunny days.  Still there’s a lovely snowbase in place and a Glacier

 

 

BFTP

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Retorical Question 

Well I didn’t expect record smashing cold for the ESB!!!! 
 

BFTP

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

To boredom and another 2 weeks of winter lost

Not 2weeks….that’s the point.  Next week is looking very interesting….but agree unfortunately Herts will be probably the driest part of the country….so cold and cloudy 

 

BFTP

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

 

any guesses where this will lead?  I’m intrigued 

 

BFTP

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, kold weather said:

I think regardless of how much the HP tries to build there is huge momentum coming from the jet around 168-216hrs that almost certainly kick it too far SE. Whilst the models maybe being too forceful with this, I think its pretty inevitable the Atlantic is coming back in, at least for a time.

Before that we still have some interest, though experience suggests these channel runner lows tend to end up being just a little too far south. I suspect at this point that will be the case here as well and it'll be close but no cigar with this one, sadly.

That all being said, I think we will get at least one more good shot at a cold pattern through February so for now I'm not hugely concerned about how rough the mid term looks.

More than one shot, and the Atlantic coming back in is not set in its ferocity or longevity.

 

BFTP

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

 

my earlier post re this about the Atlantic unfiring as we look at US

 

well 18z brings that forward…by a lot…24-30 hrs

 

 

BFTP

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

 

t144 18z won’t look like this…going to be an enjoyable several days of lots of ups and downs….

 BFTP

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

 

this is getting interest rising.  Atlantic Express becoming Gatwick Express ?

 

BFTP 

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

deep cold, make no bones about that. No short term down grade

 BFTP

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, Garthvader said:

The 0z runs will be quite interesting  

RE the LP coming from SW yes!   Maybe not that soon for beyond….but looking forward to midweek!!

 

BFTP 

2 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Any chance of another 50 miles push North do you think?

No.  Caerphilly like the Gobi Desert…sorry

BFTP

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

 

wow.  Already we see potential changes afoot.  As I said this Atlantic influence unlikely to be a trans continental express.

BFTP

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

2 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

Is your thinking that we could see heights rises  to the North  East being modelled later next week?

I’m thinking we’ll see some northward ridging appearing.  Where that settles up for grabs but Atlantic train not a long distance express

 

BFTP

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

59 minutes ago, Weather of Mass Disruption said:

Presumably due to all the cold flooding down into the USA and firing up the jet stream. Seems to be the same most year's these days. The last thing we need is a fortnight of storms with copious amounts of rain  

But look at this profile for the US….I anticipate the jetstream to suddenly ‘unfire’

 

Going to be a very interesting week of model watching

BFTP

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

12 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Hopefully, it will be a short-lived spell of westerlies because we are running out of winter

It’s winter now…3c to me is winter with a very cold week ahead

 

BFTP

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

A (the breakdown is coming so we’ll get  3+ weeks of mild zonal weather) fatigue is creeping in.  Irrespective of what is being shown, I think it’s going to be fascinating to ‘actually’ see how the ‘westerly’ pattern occurs, and for how long.

21-25 seems the a peak ‘westerly’ incursion of some kind, which has been anticipated within this thread.  I think it will be interesting watching going forward how this plays out…..no I don’t think it might ‘switch’ to keep us in a freeze…but any projection of weeks of ‘usual conveyor belt’ is by no means secured.  
It’s 3c here today….pretty cold.  Colder to come?   

 

BFTP

 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

The chances of LP systems being sent on a more southerly trajectory after this cold spell are waning (which still gives plenty of opportunity for snow to lower levels for Midlands north..not just the hills as some postulate).  The LP diving down NW/SE looks good for those places….more than 5%

For late Jan into early Feb, I personally can see something more towards GEM with HP UK to Denmark with a chance of a continental influence for the far south.

 

BFTP

 

 

 

 

BFTP

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

 

MacD…….

 

BFTP

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 hour ago, booferking said:

What about the low north of us sweeping the cold away. 

t120

 

T144

 

sweeping what cold away?

 

BFTP