BLAST FROM THE PAST

January 6

7 minutes ago, Drifter said:

The trouble with the ECM is that northerly looks like it’s on borrowed time and would turn milder soon after.

Look at the gfs, the 00z and 06z yesterday? Then look where it’s returned to. Like I said the other day, expect volatility from models on individual runs. And the warming in the Strat is nicely on time…even if technically it isn’t a major SSW……I’m sure it will have ramifications

BFTP

January 6

45 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Still going up..

Technicality’s or not, that’s a SSW in my book

BFTP

January 5

0z t192

12z t168

I know which I prefer

BFTP

January 5

I think the GFS is on fact finding mission. Tbh, on a long term scale I quite like the 12z…..it’s not binning a longerterm cold set up….indeed it’s struggling, with the cold still very much in the thro

BFTP

January 5

Well deep fi on GFS isn’t following the AAM response posted by Matt Hugo yesterday. Are we about to it not become as important a driver this time round?

fascinating change in GFS given what may be on the table. Wobble or right….only the next 7 days will tell us the answer for midmonth

One expects a wax and wane even with nirvana…..but today GFS isn’t really waxing before it wanes. The main thing currently is there’s a lot of runs to come by all models….but next week will likely confirm the way forward….not today, tomorrow or yesterday

BFTP

January 5

8 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Lots to be resolved...

6z v 0z EC

Even with the ‘perfect’ runs for cold at that range for detail there was /is still lots to be resolved.

interesting one for me this one. Will the high sink , hold or have another go at Greenland? The surface result which is bitterly cold at this point

BFTP

January 4

Folk keep looking for the ‘downgrade’

look at the negative tilt on the LP over Canada…it’s almost horizontal. Apart from the AZLP…..Atlantic is ZERO

BFTP

January 4

Absolutely pouring down still here. Been pouring since 1430hrs

BFTP

January 4

31 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

As long as it's not BFTP (Fred saying it)...hang on, God dam it!.

I haven’t said a word

BFTP

January 4

8 minutes ago, cold snap said:

Hot of the press . Thoughts ?

The green contours are so amplified….incredible. JH would say a very ‘stable’ outlook.

BFFP

January 4

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC 46 is just Northern Blocking basically , for 3 to4 weeks..

Incredible.

Unfortunately in this set up the NW will be bone dry and have a Fohn effect….I’m sorry pal

BFTP

January 4

4 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Why shouldn't I, they are usually over egged at that timeframe and milder closer to the event. Next weeks easterly was showing minus 8 to 10 for 2/3 days. Now its showing minus 5 for 24hours

Seas are still warm around our shores

Plenty of runs have shown colder again. And that’s just 4 days away

-8s for SE

BFTP

January 4

11 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Synoptically it certainly is. But the uppers tell a less cold picture, at least initially

So you trust the uppers at day 10 ?

BFTP

January 4

Guys…..forget the ‘detail’ of 10+ days….the pattern is rock solid. For me it will NOT remain a dry cold

BFTP

January 4

4 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

I don’t think it will always be like this it’s been a year where the tropics have dominated. If we had a stronger Strat or another driver over riding this I don’t think we could call this pattern with the same confidence but gdsm tools are extremely valuable. That I definitely know this year using them

I think (my inference) is that it will become more stable as a tool.

BFTP

January 4

28 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

There is someone who doesn’t post on here who is professional who has taught me a lot and one day I will thank him and name him for the time he’s spent learning me and giving me access to gdsm products that I shouldn’t really have but after this year the respect I have for this science id honestly say to enthusiasts please do some learning it’s the future of weather forecasting I have no doubt about it! If I showed people my notes and messages you would not believe the success I’ve had from this in 2023. It’s pushing on 85% forecast success for 3-4 weeks ahead of time!

Interesting post Scott. Would love to see the comparison of success going forward over next 10 years to the last 10. 2023 I think has become an important year.

BFTP

January 4

3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

T96 it’s raw.

That’s not raw for the South….it’s perishing

BFTP

January 4

1 hour ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Sooooooo when are we allowed to tell friends/family?

13th

BFTP

January 4

perfection….NYE 1978 on the cards here

BFTP

January 4

1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Icon is gagging for it

Nice little tweet from Judah here also. Slowly but surely I feel we are heading there..we cant be expecting upgrades every run,the idea being the output stays solid.

When he says Ides of Jan…..anyone know the date of the ‘Ides of March’ ? from Julius Caesar

BFTP

January 4

1 minute ago, Harveyslugger said:

I'm a newbie.is that good or bad?

The negative tilt of the Low Pressure southern tip of Greenland is so mych more pronounced. Blocking is massive…..not normally bad

BFTP

January 4

Just now, LRD said:

Shortwaves don't kill Greenland Highs. The broadscale atmosphere does, allowing shortwaves to exist in unfavourable places, thus making it look like shortwaves kill a Greenland High

Agree with this hence why last 30 were so different to 60/70/80s

BFTP

January 4

So reading Matt Hugo’s post, reading what others have been posting, I reckon there’s a huge ‘watch’ going on with the MetO.
The ‘forecast’ response with the atmosphere is very 60s/70s/80s whereby the anticipated set up held it’s course…..I remember confident calls by the greats Fish, McCaskill, Bill Giles when what they called happened.

let’s see where we go….I’m very comfortable with the projection

BFTP

January 4

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Shortwave sent packing by 66, I love an early upgrade, I wonder if we can get some -12s across the UK on the 12z runs

06z ECM Control melted the SW away too

BFTP

January 4

13 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Best post of the winter!

It sums up perfectly what our amateur forecasters @Catacol @Met4Cast have been saying and what I’ve been trying to say myself (although it’s a challenge for me to put anything into a lot of detail or to have the patience to put in writing my understanding having dyslexia other than to rhythmically talk about the 15th of January like some African voodoo spell but I just hope this year will encourage other amateurs this year to take the time to research this science. It’s taken me 3 years to research to have a true understanding and my next stop is the stratosphere! All in all a thoroughly enjoyable year this year from a learning perspective

Scott

you do rather well pal, don’t do yourself injustice. However, one tip….don’t say 15th….hedge your bets 14-16 landing point

BFTP

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