BLAST FROM THE PAST

January 8

1 minute ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

Battle ground snow is absolutely terrible for most in the south as it’s always rain.

South Wales is ‘The South’…..Berkshire is The South, north Surrey is The South….heavy snow

BFTP

January 8

this to This! Come on it’s awesome

PROPER snow depths

BFTP

January 8

Very very interesting indeed. Great factual thread this, the ice rebound is a head scratcher.
keep it going Dave ….been and is a great read

BFTP

January 8

6 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Tell me this then - Where have the sub -10’s and NE’lies gone that were showing up in the models last week ?

1. Not getting NE’lies is not a downgrade especially when deep cold is still flooding in. Different parts of the country fair better from different directions. Eg N/Nw or E with cold embedded.

2. Thanks for explaining your viewpoint. you are quantifying a downgrade from ‘some’ runs that were showing cold of an extra-ordinary level. now we can see why you say there’s a downgrade and yes a slight downgrade from ‘them’ runs.

Now compared to many runs on the weekend we have been upgraded

BFTP

January 8

1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

The latest synoptics strongly favour Northern regions with the South at mercy of milder incursions.

Clearly nowhere near as good as the models were showing a few days ago with everything watered down.

The most misleading post of the day and why so many get confused

BFTP

January 7

A snaphot doesn’t always tell a tale

Downgrade? Maybe chilly for SE?

no, widespread cold….

the point I make is make sure you look at the run, what leads up to that ‘snapshot’ before worrying about a downgrade or upgrade.

BFTP

January 7

The 12 z was a stormer too. Different in deep FI but more or less same cold but different angle. Whets the appetite somewhat

BFTP

January 7

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

T240:

A few runs lately have appeared to have had the vortex on collision course, but this one’s actually done it! Direct hit!

And cold hits before this day 10….so day 10 is BREACHED!

BFTP

January 7

another perfect run…..they slip then come back, the theme has remained. Is this run right….general theme is…suspect a few more tweaks here and there to come. But a good way to say good night

BFTP

January 7

liking this a lot. -8 down eastern side and spreading with a potential NNW/SSE diving low/trough…..and much less influence from SW so should be a better/cleaner N’ly shot…..prolonged cold, deeper cold from north

BFTP

January 7

15 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Yep certainly can't argue with that mean up to day 8,

But Tamara's post was also interesting regarding not expecting the extended ensembles to have a very good handle on things at range at the moment

Not just that, but that westerly inertia is coming but with cold embedded and jet on southerly trajectory…..I think GFS is sniffing this idea looking at individual 12z ensembles

BFTP

January 7

There we go

BFTP

January 7

7 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Agree.. we don’t want it sitting there and filling.. nearer it gets then more of should disrupt and go under lowering heights to our south.

It’s fine, just at the point now where the cold is embedding and blocking solid. It’ll either slide or the block will exert further. Attack would be a snow machine. For me as I’ve said, many twists to come, even this run hasn’t resolved it….but shows also that there’s no definitive Atlantic breakdown. Indeed this run would highlight Tamara’s re-inforcing post from earlier. Plenty to look forward to….and I think back to Matt Hugo’s post too….blended with my own view….happy as a coldie.

BFTP

January 7

AzLP….feel free to attack from the SW when you are ready

BFTP

January 7

0z

12z

look at NW part of Hudson Bay…..that lower anomaly prevents the GHP draining into North America….result a more solid and steady GHP

BFTP

January 7

Why doesn’t the chart archive work?

BFTP

January 7

6 minutes ago, MJB said:

Too true Cat -5c ( 2m daytime temps not 850's were hit in '47 '63 ( sadly i didn't experience those ) '79 '81 '84 '87 '91 '10 close to it in March 2018, severe cold is rare

You forgot 86….Feb 86 was a sub zero month.

For those micro analysing the runs upgrade/downgrade etc and how 06z is upgrade. Very cold, dry and complete collapse in deep FI with no cold come back

BFTP

January 7

1 minute ago, Zero Visability said:

But definitely positive, showing this is far from game over.

Exactly that,

BFTP

January 7

The theme remains generally. There’s no upgrade or downgrade at day 8+, just variations. Like I said last week, we won’t resolve the detail for midmonth until into next week

BFTP

January 6

18 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

We are about to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory here aren’t we…

No just another slight variation on the theme. Bitterly cold following with heavy snow for the south. Hell of a run….again

BFTP

January 6

6 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

Does anyone know what model the BBC use for their forecasts? As looking at the EC/GFS/UKMO I don't see a low pressure coming up from the south increasing temps, and later "Wintry Showers" from the north?

Not Met Office anymore…..

BFTP

January 6

My concern is my flight to Salzburg for my ski trip to Kaprun 20/1/24.

BFTP

January 6

19 hours ago, Windysun1 said:

You could be correct bluearmy but i took up differently.

Infact if you look at the lack of blocking at the end of the ECM run..anemic is putting it mildly. Does it have any relevance to his post i dont know but its certainly disappointing. Il give it to Sunday to see if there is any back tracking.

Im gone off on a bit of a tangent here not toally strat chat. Sorry mods.

As you know I pm’d you way back in Dec that I anticipated a SSW early Jan ….for me it’s here and happening. I don’t think Cohen is talking about the end of winter is nigh on over here. I’ll stick to my gins, deep cold landing point 14-16 Jan…..bonus with initial thrust for S/SE in t48 hrs….but that will ease….main thrust remains 14-16. This strat warming has/is imo currently being underplayed and will have a big knock on effect. Don’t expect ‘continuous’ deep cold….but

January 6

GHP re-invigorating….now this is the run of the year……severe cold embedded

BFTP

January 6

That is serious cold weather

BFTP

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