[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

13 minutes ago, booferking said:

Definitely a turn for the worse168hr ukmo.

 Not if you are expecting Northern Blocking Nirvana…we expect a relaxation/Atlantic influence ….look at the LP south of Greenland ALREADY disrupting…..very interesting 

 

BFTP

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

 

look at this further warming.  Treat the models post t192 with suspicion…..GFS FI….very suspect.  I’ll judge come Mon/Tues.  if models are showing the same….then we know.  Not yet.  UKMO is very interesting 

 

BFTP

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

48 minutes ago, offerman said:

Hi Blast,

Can you post a link for me please to that graphical chart UKMOffice chart. Thanks 

Meteociel

 

BFTP

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

2 hours ago, TillyS said:

Gone a couple of frames later though - see my post.

No northerly blocking = door open for the Atlantic to return  

You looking at the same UKMO I am?  

T120

BFTP

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Mattwolves3

 

mate I anticipate some sizeable shifting of runs over the next few days

 

BFTP

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

 

much better….and likely imo

 

BFTP

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

For me GFS is on a wobble, there’s a whole lot of winter weather to get through over the next 7+ days….indeed it’s 3c here now….bloody cold.  
Excellent consistency from Tamara, I really am focussed on 20/1….I fly to Austria for ski trip to Kaprun…..snow is good in the Alps….I don’t want an issue at Gatwick….but I’m on ‘watch mode’

 

BFTP

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

something to throw in here in my experience.  Any inroads from a westerly direction doesn’t mean an end to a cold spell.  If it’s a relaxation of the deeper cold (but still cold) then a renewed assertion of deep cold later to me is a continuation of a cold spell.

There has always been an ‘anticipation’ of westerly influence coming in at some point (likely from 20/21)….let’s wait to see how that develops.  It’s only a bust if we go into GFS deep fi bartlett territory.

Cold incoming (blinking pretty chilly out there today)….let it develop and assess when the fi becomes into the reliable

 

 BFTP

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Oh no!!!! Noooooooo!’   12z flat as pancake

 

BFTP

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

14 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

 

Hi BFTP I've read a lot about Tamara's thoughts, do you have a link to it? Thank you

Page 38 in Highlights thread 

 

BFTP

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

3 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Ties in perfectly with @Tamara views of oscillating heights between Greenland and Scandi with a southern tracking Jet, almost the best we can hope for really.

True….and if it comes to fruition one has to tip their hat to her (Tamara doesn’t ramp…but that was as close to a ramp you would get)….and I personally see no reason for it not to ‘generally’ pan out as such

 

BFTP

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

 

yes end of the run but also end game.  That profile is insane….Feb ‘86 anyone?

for those too young to remember or know of Feb ‘86….CET -1.1

Just a comment on the 06z btw…

 

BFTP

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

11 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

What model do you think that is closest too,

06z for 16th

 

BFTP

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

6 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Very, very good 06z. very very good day 4 FAX..

That is a beauty of a fax chart.  Northerly plunge very much in charge.

Look at north tip of Scotland…trough number 1…that’s really cold air behind that

 

BFTP

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

7 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

Do you think a Scandi High is the next direction of travel  given the nh profile?

Firstly let’s get the southerly tracking LPs as per GFS 06z, then the confirmation of further warming….then we can see how the vortex reacts.  There’s certainly signs of shallow wedge of higher pressure developing over there to start with

 BFTP

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, Bricriu said:

Do you think a Scandi High is the next direction of travel  given the nh profile?

Tough to call, renewed northern blocking a very likely outcome

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

2 minutes ago, Malarky said:

With the jet that far south and a technical SSW close to being forecast around the 17th, end of Jan/early Feb could be beautiful.

In honour of Scott, I’ll say 30 Jan.

30/1 Malarky Day.  There is a renewed warming forecast too.

 

BFTP

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

4 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

Where did this  GFS run come from. Could this be the model getting a handle on all the recent warmings in the strat?

As LRD says and I agree, the signs were there on the 18z.  I also think moving on that the 00z was better than yesterday’s 00z…like for like

 BFTP

[Autumn & Winter 2023---2024 Stratospheric Polar Vortex. Events, Analysis, Discussions AND Outlooks]

 

the first warming was significant but came from such a low baseline whereby the strat was seriously cold….hence maybe why it didn’t get ‘all the way there’ to a split?  However, look at the forecast for a further warming….this could get very interesting 

 

BFTP

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

ukmo t120

t144

 

 

ecm t144

 

looks decent enough to me before any Atlantic inroad…..from the SW

 

BFTP

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

8 hours ago, Ladyofthestorm said:

I hope your leg pulling. Lol

Potentially we have some pretty good conditions for snow, I would bet on it even in the South. 

There is absolutely nothing in the teleconnections to suggest anything mild at all . 

We have an elongated PV and it's suffering big time. I'm suspecting we will see a technical SSW finish the job like 2013 soon. 

Yes indeed, the point I believe has been laboured about taking individual runs as ‘correct’

IMHO There is a very decent chance of high impactual snow events for the UK ahead.  Where gets it is still to be sorted but the adjustment south is under way

 BFTP

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

24 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

I didn’t get the Scott Ingham day full stop I found it a little embarrassing as I’m just a weather enthusiast tbh Phil! But if a forecast comes off why would you not be enthusiastic about it when you’re learning. This place is a my d*** is bigger than yours atmosphere n i just care about the science only! I’ll get more wrong than right!!

Told you to say 14-16 approx rather than 15th.  Scott, don’t worry about the doomsayers, still a week to go and look at 18z compared to earlier runs …..the game is STILL ON.  You made the call, you stick by it….due to the science you’re learning and for me it’s a hit no matter longevity which I’m sure tomorrow will look mire potent than today…

 

BFTP

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

It’s over….no doubt about it…it’s over…….barr the 18z….which shows that a daily run means diddly squat.  I read John Holmes’ post earlier today….many must have….and to me the ‘singular’ very changeable gfs rubs are garbage.

nothing is sorted yet, details are certainly not bagged….and raging SW’lies are way down the list

 

BFTP

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

 

beautiful

 

BFTP

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

They all look similar at t144 and all then allow the Atlantic attack from SW after.  It seems to me how the attack will manifest itself.  Is t168 when the westerly inertia is set to kick back in?

 

BFTP