BLAST FROM THE PAST

January 4

potentially this by Monday

BFTP

January 4

So day 11 makes it 15th Jan….landing point has been 14-16 Jan. so I’d say it’s been day 18/17/16/15/14/13/12….and now 11. With a taster day 3/4

BFTP

January 4

The concern of the ECM this morning I could not understand. To me it was an excellent run and beyond T240 would look like the 06z GFS. No issues there imo on that front. Very interesting post from Matt Hugo and to get the drivers to work in sync with atmospheric response needs assistance from elsewhere, another driver….otherwise it would work all the time? Synoptics upcoming worthy of 3-4 decades ago.

I want the Atlantic to have a go a la ECM and GFS 6z…..be very interesting to see the outcome

BFTP

January 3

25 minutes ago, Joseph Hudson said:

pardon my ignorance what dose that mean its that good or bad for cold

Better for initial cold easterly

BFTP

January 3

6 minutes ago, Bristle Si said:

According to "Severe Weather Europe", earlier today:

A Stratospheric Warming event has now begun, and is expected to play its role in the large-scale weather pattern change in the first half of January. With snow events over the United States and cold air periods over Europe, the second winter month finally delivers proper weather.

Yep, I wasn’t convinced a SSW wasn’t happening.

BFTP

January 3

1 hour ago, cold snap said:

Without sounding like a bore Nick .

I'm a little bit suprised by the emphasis on the ECM.

Again it's at 240 hours that we see it show it's hand.

Might be June time at this rate by the time there is push from the North.

No the whole run is excellent. Day 10 is 13th….anticipated land time 14-16….but land time for SE /S is day 5

BFTP

January 3

ECM…..perfect for prolonged cold spell

BFTP

January 3

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

I reckon this could go west based..hope I'm wrong!

No I don’t think so….looks very promising

BFTP

January 3

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

850's not as cold as GFS/UKMO? maybe not as much snow in Kent

That will be bitterly cold, even though the -8s have passed over there isn’t really a warm sector….it’ll be freezing cold …..

BFTP

January 3

stronger easterly developing…..I think we have the initial upgrades needed going forward for prolonging the cold

BFTP

January 3

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Outlier, surely ??

Well it’s different!!! That’s a start

BFTP

January 3

33 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Bloomin heck... this place will be full on prison riot if that was too occur..

Also Booferking thanks for the link

BFTP

January 3

Where can one view the ECM 6z control?

BFTP

January 3

33 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

What you thinking? Heights into scandi as an option instead of Greenland?

Something we haven’t seen yet, no retrogression/attempt at all. Now i’m not ‘forecasting’ that as the outcome but as a run or 2….just years of model watching something ‘different’ pops up.

BFTP

January 3

Wondering if we are going to see some ‘very different’ runs come 12z post 5-7 days

BFTP

January 3

2 minutes ago, IDO said:

I mentioned this morning the poor historical performance of the models viz a GH, and we are seeing on the 06z that being downgraded to more of a wedge, with the dominant high now settling on Iceland.

I must say I prefer this option and hope it can allow a colder flow.

Real cold easterly to develop off that. I think it may then move onto another attempt at retrogression. I like it too, solid set up

BFTP

January 3

Is the 06z developing a Scandi HP? Certainly pulling away from a GHP

BFTP

January 3

t144 00z

T138 06z

very little between them, but big difference on 850s. Fractions hemispherically….don’t get caught up in individual runs.

BFTP

January 3

14 minutes ago, Premiere Neige said:

Not sure solar flares have that much affect on our weather. We are protected from what is ejected from the sun by the magnetosphere. I may be wrong but that's my understanding...

We are but our magnetosphere has waned somewhat over last 20+ years….hence even with glancing blows we are getting more and stronger auroras. Vikings in the past used auroras….they never sailed shortly after auroras.

Re models, more dramas and changes likely…but theme generally remains.

BFTP

January 2

18z looking to be monumental…..direct Arctic hit incoming

BFTP

January 2

12z

18z

I’m liking the 18z

BFTP

January 2

6 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

The issue with the mid month retrogression is the modelled extent of the UK high. With it so large the retrogression signal may not be enough to detatch it from the Hadley cell. Another issue with this is the potential for the cold shot to slide east of the UK with the UK high staying relatively fixed.

Only if the initial High is too far north

BFTP

January 2

7 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Are we really chasing day 10 charts again for something noteworthy..haha

No, it’s always been 12-14 January

perfect alignment

BFTP

January 2

Nothing imo has changed. Very good chances going forward for very cold conditions. There’ll be subtle changes to model runs.

So here’s something to think about. If the way forward is the retrogression of the HP to Greenland, careful what one wishes for re the first HP. If it moves too far north when it retrogresses all the real cold plunges to our east and the Atlantic rolls in under the block. The ECM retrogression is perfect, that’s a direct hit. We want the trough to plunge over the north sea.

point in case. No further north that this. Works out great….but only just

BFTP

January 1

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

The main concern still is and probably still will be for a while the high sinking into the Azores.

When?

BFTP

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