BLAST FROM THE PAST

Reciprocated BFTP

I would anticipate that the cold uppers wouldn’t be mixed out for long as the LP would dive SE, so a very interesting weather patten…..some would definitely benefit from it…..all conjecture at that range fir sure. Just commenting on ‘the run’ not that it’s spot on at all. No Hyperbole as LRD puts it….commenting on ‘the run’ which is exceptional synoptically ( and unlikely due to how strong the HP is) with some pretty decent temps involved. BFTP

Just a model run, comment on it….read the build up and potential continuity. That maybe childish….but it’s the model forum. It’s a great run….yes a run. Good night and maybe tomorrow there’ll be no ‘shoot from the hip’ response BFTP

It isn’t flattering out….that LP is developing and would move NW/SE into a cold UK. Look at the run, read the run BFTP Give it up LRD….we are talking a model run here….don’t get personal….we strive to improve Put me on your ignore list….I’ve just done that on you BFTP

The HP is a wow, the sheer size and strength. It’s not all about the snow. But the sheer set up is a wow, and probably unlikely …..no doubt BFTP

What you expecting or wanting….a 5000 mile Easterly from Kamchatka? BFTP

Christmas Eve Night into the big day. You are CLEARLY not looking at the movement of the LP, primed to dive NW/SE with cold uppers mixed out for a short time before they pour back in. Simply a great run…..but that’s all it is…a model run BFTP

look at the HP to out WSW and the LP south tip of Greenland…..ready to loop over NW/SE axis into a very cold UK? VERY interesting run…if just fot fun Added….Wow BFTP

Incredible run….it’s cold and about to get re-inforced and colder…. BFTP

At t264 there’s more HP on Eastern Seaboard to join and re-inforce the Atlantic HP. So yes very possible, no serious jet streak. BFTP

If this run was to come off….it would be historic. This is leading to a total Atlantic lockdown BFTP

that is a serious Atlantic HP next frame t240 where is this leading? Atlantic shut down? BFTP

t240 from ECM 00z. t216 12z. That HP over France and South UK will be ‘sucked’ back West. T240 12z….it’s moving West BFTP

It’s only with good cause if one is anticipating locked in bitterly cold NE’lies or a frigid Scandi HP. I currently think the current GFS 12 z is a ‘reasonable’ path forward…..and it isn’t mild mild mild. No disaster, just not Nirvana….and as Catacol says, there’s plenty to still go through before what is going to happen is clearly shown. BFTP

With the way MJO is getting, I think this 12z GFS won’t be too far off the mark. It gets some decent cold air in, but the blocking in Atlantic doesn’t ridge up and hold so the cold isn’t locked in. (However, it isn’t a mild outcome with GFS 12z scenario….and Summer B post explains it well.) That scenario of Atlantic ridging north to HLB seems to slipping away unfortunately….but I don’t mean for the winter, just Xmas period….which could still pack a punch for some places. I’ll be keeping an eye on some storm potential approaching and over Christmas with NW and N’ly gales. BFTP

For you….amazing BFTP

Have a look at the GFS control 12z. Basically at various stages 21-24 Dec the whole GB and Ireland will likely see snow…. NW and West get it. Then NE/E/SE get it. but tbf that looks fairly widespread. BFTP

In that note….I’m sitting in the camp that Xmas week can be very interesting but no real locked in Northern blocking (not an issue imo and potential pretty stormy conditions)….but comfortable with further stronger shots as we go through Jan and Feb. BFTP

Just to show a type of chart I always look for…..this is CLASSIC retrogression trigger scenario for northerly plunge BFTP

The ‘hope’ builds, lovely 00z gfs, even more encouraging signs, some really good reading on this page guys….thank you. Laters…as off to delivery groceries BFTP

We are in early signs of potential change. The change that will gather momentum imo. Even at this early stage….encouraging. Today in Surrey with the windchill…it was really cold and NOT mild. Real Cold is ‘on tap’ this winter imo….Can we tap in? Chances are very much there…..but I think ‘plunging lows’ NW/SE or trough to our NE is the way ahead around Xmas week BFTP I

Followed up by a positive 00z. There are hints, just hints that last 3rd Dec will set up into a cold direction. Not unreasonable outcome when whole ‘package’ of drivers is looked at. BFTP

Look poor to me. Bftp

Around NYE 1978 in Swansea, we had drifts as high as the front door. Also in December 1981, the snow level was over 2 feet. My 15 month old sister standing in garden with the snow level to her head. Jan 1987 massive snow drifts again in Swansea…the legendary easterly. BFTP

That looks like a MJO phase 5 set up BFTP