BLAST FROM THE PAST

potentially this by Monday BFTP

So day 11 makes it 15th Jan….landing point has been 14-16 Jan. so I’d say it’s been day 18/17/16/15/14/13/12….and now 11. With a taster day 3/4 BFTP

The concern of the ECM this morning I could not understand. To me it was an excellent run and beyond T240 would look like the 06z GFS. No issues there imo on that front. Very interesting post from Matt Hugo and to get the drivers to work in sync with atmospheric response needs assistance from elsewhere, another driver….otherwise it would work all the time? Synoptics upcoming worthy of 3-4 decades ago. I want the Atlantic to have a go a la ECM and GFS 6z…..be very interesting to see the outcome BFTP

Better for initial cold easterly BFTP

Yep, I wasn’t convinced a SSW wasn’t happening. BFTP

No the whole run is excellent. Day 10 is 13th….anticipated land time 14-16….but land time for SE /S is day 5 BFTP

ECM…..perfect for prolonged cold spell BFTP

No I don’t think so….looks very promising BFTP

That will be bitterly cold, even though the -8s have passed over there isn’t really a warm sector….it’ll be freezing cold ….. BFTP

stronger easterly developing…..I think we have the initial upgrades needed going forward for prolonging the cold BFTP

Well it’s different!!! That’s a start BFTP

Also Booferking thanks for the link BFTP

Where can one view the ECM 6z control? BFTP

Something we haven’t seen yet, no retrogression/attempt at all. Now i’m not ‘forecasting’ that as the outcome but as a run or 2….just years of model watching something ‘different’ pops up. BFTP

Wondering if we are going to see some ‘very different’ runs come 12z post 5-7 days BFTP

Real cold easterly to develop off that. I think it may then move onto another attempt at retrogression. I like it too, solid set up BFTP

Is the 06z developing a Scandi HP? Certainly pulling away from a GHP BFTP

t144 00z T138 06z very little between them, but big difference on 850s. Fractions hemispherically….don’t get caught up in individual runs. BFTP

We are but our magnetosphere has waned somewhat over last 20+ years….hence even with glancing blows we are getting more and stronger auroras. Vikings in the past used auroras….they never sailed shortly after auroras. Re models, more dramas and changes likely…but theme generally remains. BFTP

18z looking to be monumental…..direct Arctic hit incoming BFTP

12z 18z I’m liking the 18z BFTP

Only if the initial High is too far north BFTP

No, it’s always been 12-14 January perfect alignment BFTP

Nothing imo has changed. Very good chances going forward for very cold conditions. There’ll be subtle changes to model runs. So here’s something to think about. If the way forward is the retrogression of the HP to Greenland, careful what one wishes for re the first HP. If it moves too far north when it retrogresses all the real cold plunges to our east and the Atlantic rolls in under the block. The ECM retrogression is perfect, that’s a direct hit. We want the trough to plunge over the north sea. point in case. No further north that this. Works out great….but only just BFTP

When? BFTP