BLAST FROM THE PAST

Look at the gfs, the 00z and 06z yesterday? Then look where it’s returned to. Like I said the other day, expect volatility from models on individual runs. And the warming in the Strat is nicely on time…even if technically it isn’t a major SSW……I’m sure it will have ramifications BFTP

Technicality’s or not, that’s a SSW in my book BFTP

0z t192 12z t168 I know which I prefer BFTP

I think the GFS is on fact finding mission. Tbh, on a long term scale I quite like the 12z…..it’s not binning a longerterm cold set up….indeed it’s struggling, with the cold still very much in the thro BFTP

Well deep fi on GFS isn’t following the AAM response posted by Matt Hugo yesterday. Are we about to it not become as important a driver this time round? fascinating change in GFS given what may be on the table. Wobble or right….only the next 7 days will tell us the answer for midmonth One expects a wax and wane even with nirvana…..but today GFS isn’t really waxing before it wanes. The main thing currently is there’s a lot of runs to come by all models….but next week will likely confirm the way forward….not today, tomorrow or yesterday BFTP

Even with the ‘perfect’ runs for cold at that range for detail there was /is still lots to be resolved. interesting one for me this one. Will the high sink , hold or have another go at Greenland? The surface result which is bitterly cold at this point BFTP

Folk keep looking for the ‘downgrade’ look at the negative tilt on the LP over Canada…it’s almost horizontal. Apart from the AZLP…..Atlantic is ZERO BFTP

Absolutely pouring down still here. Been pouring since 1430hrs BFTP

I haven’t said a word BFTP

The green contours are so amplified….incredible. JH would say a very ‘stable’ outlook. BFFP

Unfortunately in this set up the NW will be bone dry and have a Fohn effect….I’m sorry pal BFTP

Plenty of runs have shown colder again. And that’s just 4 days away -8s for SE BFTP

So you trust the uppers at day 10 ? BFTP

Guys…..forget the ‘detail’ of 10+ days….the pattern is rock solid. For me it will NOT remain a dry cold BFTP

I think (my inference) is that it will become more stable as a tool. BFTP

Interesting post Scott. Would love to see the comparison of success going forward over next 10 years to the last 10. 2023 I think has become an important year. BFTP

That’s not raw for the South….it’s perishing BFTP

13th BFTP

perfection….NYE 1978 on the cards here BFTP

When he says Ides of Jan…..anyone know the date of the ‘Ides of March’ ? from Julius Caesar BFTP

The negative tilt of the Low Pressure southern tip of Greenland is so mych more pronounced. Blocking is massive…..not normally bad BFTP

Agree with this hence why last 30 were so different to 60/70/80s BFTP

So reading Matt Hugo’s post, reading what others have been posting, I reckon there’s a huge ‘watch’ going on with the MetO. The ‘forecast’ response with the atmosphere is very 60s/70s/80s whereby the anticipated set up held it’s course…..I remember confident calls by the greats Fish, McCaskill, Bill Giles when what they called happened. let’s see where we go….I’m very comfortable with the projection BFTP

06z ECM Control melted the SW away too BFTP

Scott you do rather well pal, don’t do yourself injustice. However, one tip….don’t say 15th….hedge your bets 14-16 landing point BFTP