BLAST FROM THE PAST

240 00z….poor 216 12z….chances BFTP

I think the AZH is moving on a different angle….chances here….oh yes, Matt Hugo posts worth reading BFTP

that is COLD! BFTP

Merry Christmas BFTP

Yep, slower but better BFTP

Interesting subtle change to the LP by ESB 12 z has it much further South and less likely to loop over the AZH? BFTP

Night of The Monster….1st horror film I ever sat through. That’s one monster and we don’t want that to verify!! BFTP

the 00z GFS in deep FI gives the ‘feel’ of a SW/NE tilt. But looking at each perturbation and the ens, it’s on the high end mild. So something to watch but not a done deal. BFTP

Wonder what the equivalent thread is like with the Aussies….bonkers anomalies everywhere. BFTP I’ve plucked this one from the GEM as an example that little depression SW tip of Greenland. That develops into the storm force nw’lies /n’lies. Wasn’t this what Matt Hugo mentioned to watch out for yesterday? here’s the feature on GFS I’ve been in the potential storm or 2 camp for Xmas for a while. Wonder if the story of storminess over the festivities will be the main story . BFTP

Hopefully it’s right….and a nice update for coldies from LRD… BFTP

Indeed, but just highlighting as an example of what is anticipated over the pond re the mild being removed by a severe plunge of cold. Also it scuppers us too. Way too far ahead of cse BFTP

Don’t speak too soon. That is a serious plunge of cold I believe they think the mild blip will be broken with a severe plunge of cold. This would tie in BFTP

Happily done. Let’s have a cracking build up best Fred

Agreed LRD….let’s move forward and start afresh. Sorry if I peeved you regards BFTP

Let it play out BFTP

GEM at 240. Amazing chart. One trough to come over top of the AZH with HP to dominate US/Canada to Greenland…..very STRONG cold profile that going forward. BFTP

Carinthian I have been of the opinion that we could see some cold cyclonic stormy conditions. Wouldn’t be surprised if we had a named storm or two over the festive period. Your post and the jetstream profile Nick posted would certainly open the window to this. BFTP

Could be better….but compared to previous runs of the ECM….a lot better. Massive HP cell…with the Vortex shifting to our NE….not a bad position to be in. Pretty cold invasion to come after this, but probably not long lasting. However, it opens the door for more. BFTP

GEM earlier and now the ECM….it’s all hyperbole of cse….that has a potential decent northerly lined up….and that HP is still a wow….very impressive. Hyperbole? BFTP BFTP

Agreed….wow. Very impressive BFTP

GEM, yes it doesn’t ‘quite deliver’ but that’s an interesting change. 1 week is a long time. And let’s not think this is ‘hyperbole’ as someone might put it, as no big freeze anticipated….but an interesting variation appearing towards the GFS BFTP

What we are seeing is if there is a cold shot, it’s likely to be that….a cold shot of a few days and not a spell. And there could be a couple of them potent enough to be of wintry interest over the holiday period (could be some cold cyclonic stormy conditions?). Will be very interesting to see if we get them. 20th seems to be the GFS theme of the first shot BFTP

Agreed. If one looks further west it’s HP over the US, ECM for me would lead to retrogression around 24th….and no hyperbole. BFTP

Just needs a ‘kink’ in the isobars or a little runner and there could be some good falls of snow. Lovely GFS run. UKMO won’t be on board as too far ahead. ECM could show some support in it’s far reaches….so quite a few days and runs before we gain a decent insight BFTP

Christmas Stocking for E/NE USA BFTP