BLAST FROM THE PAST

A uk High is the likely start whereby we move forward. The set up isn’t going to allow a stagnant UK High. Trouble is the ‘wanting it now’ which I understand. BFTP

I can’t see the despondency, pretty decent set of 00z runs. SE for a change certainly looking in a good place. This first bite for me is just that, as mentioned I anticipate there to be a second hit and of a stronger block….with surface cold not really disappearing before it arrives. ECM at t240 looks primed for the retrograde. from Spaceweather the talk is NASA says a SSW is occurring. But it’s warming and hitting a stratosphere that was incredibly cold and the warming isn’t anticipated to be as strong as 2018 but is much earlier in the season. I mentioned a while back if the starting supercold point would have an effect. For me half glass full beginning to get re-filled BFTP

12-15 Jan when we await….with titbits before. Runs aren’t kicking cold out, just that we’ll be ‘working’ our way into it. Cold shot/s are coming earlyish new year but not sustainable….yet BFTP

Doubt it. Your AZH is getting squeezed away to become an asset BFTP

Monster run incoming massive potential for big GHP blocker down the line BFTP

interested to see where the pub run is heading…. BFTP

ECM following GFS 12 OP. T240 would imo lead to a second tilt with a proper Atlantic block BFTP

No optimism….the ridge has been ‘blocked from going north…. however…second bite? BFTP

As I tried to expiain, I didn’t like the t96….never discount the GFS BFTP

Look at the nose of the depression around Newfoundland….could lead to the blocking of the HP ridging far enough north 00z t144 12z t120 BFTP

T96 hmmmm BFTP

Not surprised that GFS did this after initial collapse. That is what’s needed 1st time to sustain the cold, because that will lead to a ‘spell’ of cold BFTP

potential important point of the run? Roughly t120 06z Now 12z. Focus around Newfoundland. On 06z look at the lobe which swings out to do this and prevents the Atlantic HP from moving any further north. Let’s see where the 12z goes. Added-At t150 the change is subtle but better….will it be enough BFTP

I think the positivity should be there and a case of getting through the more probable stormy Xmas week (which we have/are). Re talk of length of cold spell, well it won’t be continuous and no doubt waxing and waning but a propensity for -NAO signal to be more prevalent as we go deeper into winter. That’s my take on this winter. BFTP

ecm t144 ukmo t144 I don’t get the posts saying they hope UKMO comes on board? Looks on board to me. Is GFS op off on one? It is a thorn in the side unless/until it shows the same… BFTP

US top to bottom in the freezer….very bad for us BFTP

Indeed it is!!! Anything can happen in lala land BFTP

So you take a still…not bad. But so misleading as regards to the build up and movement…..it’s a very good chart….LP to dive NW to SE…. BFTP

something serious to develop from here….my reading of this is anticipating one hell of a run BFTP

one direction from here. LO in Atlantic ridges N. LP southern tip Greenland moves east. UK HP retrogresses W/NW. plunging trough over us or to our NE/E in lala land BFTP

It isn’t pants. How is it disappointing? What were you expecting by Jan 5th? It certainly isn’t heading towards blow torch SW’lies with a SW/NE LP axis

T90ish 06z 12z improved going to see how interesting it gets going forward. The more likely stormy period has arrived and to see us into New Year. Also i’m not convinced of the no SSW….at least inasmuch the story isn’t over yet. Wonder if the fact it was SUPER COLD has affected ‘forecasts’ and as it has warmed…more to come? BFTP

Day 8-10 are a long way away….details will change, chances are very much there ….ECM tonight after 0z….tick BFTP

I’m happy with the build up, not Day 10. Day 10 hasn’t just appeared….it’s built towards it. BFTP

Agreed, ECM imo is a cold bomb about to go off BFTP