BLAST FROM THE PAST

Not if you are expecting Northern Blocking Nirvana…we expect a relaxation/Atlantic influence ….look at the LP south of Greenland ALREADY disrupting…..very interesting BFTP

look at this further warming. Treat the models post t192 with suspicion…..GFS FI….very suspect. I’ll judge come Mon/Tues. if models are showing the same….then we know. Not yet. UKMO is very interesting BFTP

Meteociel BFTP

You looking at the same UKMO I am? T120 BFTP

Mattwolves3 mate I anticipate some sizeable shifting of runs over the next few days BFTP

much better….and likely imo BFTP

For me GFS is on a wobble, there’s a whole lot of winter weather to get through over the next 7+ days….indeed it’s 3c here now….bloody cold. Excellent consistency from Tamara, I really am focussed on 20/1….I fly to Austria for ski trip to Kaprun…..snow is good in the Alps….I don’t want an issue at Gatwick….but I’m on ‘watch mode’ BFTP

something to throw in here in my experience. Any inroads from a westerly direction doesn’t mean an end to a cold spell. If it’s a relaxation of the deeper cold (but still cold) then a renewed assertion of deep cold later to me is a continuation of a cold spell. There has always been an ‘anticipation’ of westerly influence coming in at some point (likely from 20/21)….let’s wait to see how that develops. It’s only a bust if we go into GFS deep fi bartlett territory. Cold incoming (blinking pretty chilly out there today)….let it develop and assess when the fi becomes into the reliable BFTP

Oh no!!!! Noooooooo!’ 12z flat as pancake BFTP

Page 38 in Highlights thread BFTP

True….and if it comes to fruition one has to tip their hat to her (Tamara doesn’t ramp…but that was as close to a ramp you would get)….and I personally see no reason for it not to ‘generally’ pan out as such BFTP

yes end of the run but also end game. That profile is insane….Feb ‘86 anyone? for those too young to remember or know of Feb ‘86….CET -1.1 Just a comment on the 06z btw… BFTP

06z for 16th BFTP

That is a beauty of a fax chart. Northerly plunge very much in charge. Look at north tip of Scotland…trough number 1…that’s really cold air behind that BFTP

Firstly let’s get the southerly tracking LPs as per GFS 06z, then the confirmation of further warming….then we can see how the vortex reacts. There’s certainly signs of shallow wedge of higher pressure developing over there to start with BFTP

Tough to call, renewed northern blocking a very likely outcome

30/1 Malarky Day. There is a renewed warming forecast too. BFTP

As LRD says and I agree, the signs were there on the 18z. I also think moving on that the 00z was better than yesterday’s 00z…like for like BFTP

the first warming was significant but came from such a low baseline whereby the strat was seriously cold….hence maybe why it didn’t get ‘all the way there’ to a split? However, look at the forecast for a further warming….this could get very interesting BFTP

ukmo t120 t144 ecm t144 looks decent enough to me before any Atlantic inroad…..from the SW BFTP

Yes indeed, the point I believe has been laboured about taking individual runs as ‘correct’ IMHO There is a very decent chance of high impactual snow events for the UK ahead. Where gets it is still to be sorted but the adjustment south is under way BFTP

Told you to say 14-16 approx rather than 15th. Scott, don’t worry about the doomsayers, still a week to go and look at 18z compared to earlier runs …..the game is STILL ON. You made the call, you stick by it….due to the science you’re learning and for me it’s a hit no matter longevity which I’m sure tomorrow will look mire potent than today… BFTP

It’s over….no doubt about it…it’s over…….barr the 18z….which shows that a daily run means diddly squat. I read John Holmes’ post earlier today….many must have….and to me the ‘singular’ very changeable gfs rubs are garbage. nothing is sorted yet, details are certainly not bagged….and raging SW’lies are way down the list BFTP

beautiful BFTP

They all look similar at t144 and all then allow the Atlantic attack from SW after. It seems to me how the attack will manifest itself. Is t168 when the westerly inertia is set to kick back in? BFTP