BLAST FROM THE PAST

Ecm 0z t192 no reason to think that 12z won’t follow the above 0z. ecm 12z t168 maybe the pendulum is swinging back BFTP

Indeed Feb….but still funny BFTP

temps tank….except the UK. Anyone else find that ironically funny BFTP

Yep, had my eye on that last week or so pre Xmas that named storms more likely to be the story rather than cold etc. Pretty stormy even down here in sheltered Surrey currently BFTP

SW and South Wales, Eire…..Blizzards of epic proportions BFTP

Look at the mild sector over the NW….sleet event? BFTP

Eric Webb @webberweather As this oldie paper from Black & McDaniel (2004) lay out (link below), the initial state of the troposphere is *very critical* to determining if a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SSWE)'s circulation/potential vorticity anomalies will propagate into the troposphere. The development of a -NAO during the onset phase of this year's (likely) SSWE is a very strong indication that a SSWE would likely anchor/intensify a -NAO in place for most of the rest of this winter (& possibly into early spring) -ve NAO to early Spring!!?. There we go BFTP

Said in as a joke BFTP

deep freeze about to kick in until April……. BFTP

You MUST concentrate on getting well…priority and WE want to hear that you are off oxygen. COME ON !!!! x BFTP

so I’ll be watching this. and this from ukmo at only t144 IF it’s here next weekend BFTP Ramping will be in full flow….i’m already starting BFTP

Many Good Wishes to you all on this wondrous day. Some beautiful pics Tamara, and I think the thread will be waiting with Great anticipation on your analysis….and it does indeed sound quite exciting. Don’t keep everyone waiting too long!!!. On that note, I haven’t ramped yet ………. BFTP

As we go past Christmas Day we are seeing a pattern of LP systems crash through the UK. Wet, yes….possible new storm names, yes…….cold pattern (4c and below daytime maxima), no……mild pattern (12-14c)…….no. We are not seeing a SW/NE movement….that’s the wet and mild pattern. I think interest is building currently as we enter into 2024. I was born in 1967…..and 90% of my Christmas’ have been Green but I’ve lived through many memorable winters BFTP

This Hadley Cell expansion, why isn’t adversely affecting Mongolia and China etc? BFTP

love this …. Changes continue to be played with. 06z GFS/this ECM imo is best we can hope for over Xmas….i’m not worried . I’m looking towards January and beyond. Further signs are apparent of the jet shifting south, and look at that PV BFTP

My punt is 1985 BFTP

Too much focus on Christmas, there’s signs of a potential change to wintry period in Jan….just as we start 1st day of winter. It was either Christmas 85 or 86 where I went for Xmas drink with my dad, brother and best friend and it was 16c and sunny…..historic cold weather followed. Today was 13c….cool in comparison BFTP

Been looking at the models intensely last few days and thinking ….am I seeing the jetstream projected to starting to track more southerly? After ECM tonight very much so. Still thinking ‘storms’ could be the bigger news story over Xmas period, but going into Jan I wouldn’t be surprised to see an uptick in cold synoptic pattern. Posted in the strat thread, some ‘unusual’ stuff going on up there….not ‘unknown’ but pretty uncommon BFTP Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99584-model-output-discussion-into-winter/?do=findComment&comment=4981006

Hence the current early SUPER COLD up there currently. Not unknown but pretty unusual. Could be very interesting come early Jan BFTP

Been looking at the models intensely last few days and thinking ….am I seeing the jetstream projected to starting to track more southerly? After ECM tonight very much so. Still thinking ‘storms’ could be the bigger news story over Xmas period, but going into Jan I wouldn’t be surprised to see an uptick in cold synoptic pattern. Posted in the strat thread, some ‘unusual’ stuff going on up there….not ‘unknown’ but pretty uncommon BFTP

It’s ‘unusual’ for sure…..in earlyness and numerically….let’s see what happens. I think an early Jan SSW of some magnitude is plausible BFTP

From Spaceweather. Three days in a row PSCs have been sighted in Norway and Sweden. Widely considered to be the most beautiful clouds on Earth, polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) are rare. Earth's stratosphere is very dry and, normally, it has no clouds at all. PSCs form when the temperature in the Arctic stratosphere drops to a staggeringly-low -85 C. Then, and only then, can widely-spaced water molecules begin to coalesce into tiny ice crystals. High-altitude sunlight shining through the crystals creates intense iridescent colors that rival auroras. During a typical Arctic winter, PSCs appear no more than a handful of times, and the first sightings usually come in January. This week's apparition marks an early start, and may herald many more PSCs to come. So would a SSW event be affected by this either way? Is it a precursor or dampener? BFTP

Close your eyes, breathe deeply, smell the fresh cold air…..and just maybe…. Plenty of chances going forward, when you are full off turkey and wine….it won’t matter….just watch a bit of Bing BFTP

take care Matt, retired in March 2017, lost my dad Jan 9th 2018 and my mam May 19th 2019. It ain’t easy, I’d be lying if I said it gets easier…..nope, you just get better at dealing with it. Cherish the great memories, make sure you do your ‘visits’…..even better if there is plenty of snow on the ground. Best BFTP (Fred)

There’s no reason to concern about super cold and snow during Christmas. It’s very early winter, chilly will do for me but I remember the super warm Xmas (in Swansea) in 1985……historic winter month + followed. Won’t go any further….chances will be there…..and btw I remember more Green Christmas’ than white….a lot more…and i’m no Spring chicken BFTP