BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Everything posted by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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For me GFS is on a wobble, there’s a whole lot of winter weather to get through over the next 7+ days….indeed it’s 3c here now….bloody cold. Excellent consistency from Tamara, I really am focussed on 20/1….I fly to Austria for ski trip to Kaprun…..snow is good in the Alps….I don’t want an issue at Gatwick….but I’m on ‘watch mode’ BFTP
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something to throw in here in my experience. Any inroads from a westerly direction doesn’t mean an end to a cold spell. If it’s a relaxation of the deeper cold (but still cold) then a renewed assertion of deep cold later to me is a continuation of a cold spell. There has always been an ‘anticipation’ of westerly influence coming in at some point (likely from 20/21)….let’s wait to see how that develops. It’s only a bust if we go into GFS deep fi bartlett territory. Cold incoming (blinking pretty chilly out there today)….let it develop and assess when the fi becomes into the reliable BFTP
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the first warming was significant but came from such a low baseline whereby the strat was seriously cold….hence maybe why it didn’t get ‘all the way there’ to a split? However, look at the forecast for a further warming….this could get very interesting BFTP
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- spv
- strat warming
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
BLAST FROM THE PAST replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
BLAST FROM THE PAST replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes indeed, the point I believe has been laboured about taking individual runs as ‘correct’ IMHO There is a very decent chance of high impactual snow events for the UK ahead. Where gets it is still to be sorted but the adjustment south is under way BFTP -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
BLAST FROM THE PAST replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Told you to say 14-16 approx rather than 15th. Scott, don’t worry about the doomsayers, still a week to go and look at 18z compared to earlier runs …..the game is STILL ON. You made the call, you stick by it….due to the science you’re learning and for me it’s a hit no matter longevity which I’m sure tomorrow will look mire potent than today… BFTP -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
BLAST FROM THE PAST replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It’s over….no doubt about it…it’s over…….barr the 18z….which shows that a daily run means diddly squat. I read John Holmes’ post earlier today….many must have….and to me the ‘singular’ very changeable gfs rubs are garbage. nothing is sorted yet, details are certainly not bagged….and raging SW’lies are way down the list BFTP -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
BLAST FROM THE PAST replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
BLAST FROM THE PAST replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
They all look similar at t144 and all then allow the Atlantic attack from SW after. It seems to me how the attack will manifest itself. Is t168 when the westerly inertia is set to kick back in? BFTP