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Everything posted by Ali1977
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Ali1977 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
T192 looks primed, on par with the GFS. And with UKMO cold by day 7 we have a general consensus as to where we are heading - wintery nirvana ️ -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Ali1977 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Battleground Snow the good this is that this is less than a week away, just - somewhere has a chance of a pasting - probably end up further north that the UKMO shows but hopefully not!! -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Ali1977 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Ali1977 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
northwestsnow 100 percent some big snow falls under that -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Ali1977 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
WINTRY WALES looks good for most of the south with the thickness and those 850sand likely getting colder and reloading snow events looking at the pressure charts -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Ali1977 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Battleground Snow that UKMO is a beauty as is the GFS - I’m feeling the biggest snow dump for years is ikon the cards later next week. Inland and/or altitude obviously helping !! Anyone got snow charts for the UKMO 168? -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Ali1977 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Lukesluckybunch It’s one Op run, the last one was snowy by day 9 - there will be lots of chopping and changing as models try to work out the path of the LP swinging SE at day 6-10!! I think the best thing is to watch for trends in the ENS for now!! -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Ali1977 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Ali1977 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Day 9 GFS Op looking cold and snowy - ECM may be similar as the cold air shifts south Cold and snow shifting south on the ECM too - day 9 seems to be the day winter could start getting interesting again - GFS better for pushing the cold south sooner though -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Ali1977 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Ali1977 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Control and mean at day 8, strong signal for cold that - even if it’s only a 2-3 day spell it may be better for more widespread snow -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Ali1977 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Ali1977 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Ali1977 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Chase about to start again, and the signal is moving closer too so we aren’t chasing from T300+ as we do sometimes!! day 10 looks good - ENS hopefully supporting too -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Ali1977 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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So everything was looking good for late Winter and now signals aren’t so good - well personally the long range signals are clearly worth toffee - so with that February is still very possibly going to be wintery - so far I’ve had no snow what so ever living on a pretty decent hill - sad times, so everything is crossed for Feb and early March. Mid March onwards , I’ll be ready for the heat
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Day 10s, I think we are staring down the barrel of our next chase - and it isn’t at day 16 on the GFS which is nice!! This time we are chasing the easterly or north easterly - rather than getting watered down like a northerly these can often quickly establish into something far colder
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