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manutdmatt1986

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Posts posted by manutdmatt1986

  1. OK, first of the hi-resolution models and it's NAE:

    13031015_0900.gif

    It's showing a lot less precip:

    13031018_0900.gif

    and not in our region during it's current time-scale:

    13031021_0900.gif

    It look like it could just be starting to show the extreme South part of the snow potential in it's last chart of the current output:

    13031100_0900.gif

    Not encouraging, but we aren't by any means there just yet....

    nail-biting-disease.jpg

    The last chart is only Midnight Sunday. The front isn't really due to push up until after then.

  2. UKMO-GM modifications have the M4 as approximate delineation. Broad consensus at this range, but halfway-house approach for yellow warning at present. Either way, UK4 (extended), run with cold, nil & warm biases, generates only snow as PPN signal. That model also has M4/Bristol as approximate N'rn boundary by 12z Mon, across ESE to Sussex (ish) in so far as the southern UK event is concerned.

    Awaiting latest EC-EPS and MOGREPS snow probs updates.

    Sounds like yet another near miss for me. Thanks for the update, Ian.

  3. Typical the GFS comes on board and the UKMO/ECM are relatively poor compared to previous outputs.

    The problem with the UKMO is the HP needs to be further N to increase the convective potential.

    http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?15-06

    The ECM between +120&+144 would bring some convective snow showers but beyond this it would be just cold, dry, dull, miserable type weather.

    Still im not worried because the positioning and orientation of the HP will change even inside +72. Lets just hope the GFS/GEM are right.

    Apart from the possibility of a channel low bringing widespread snowfall to many southern areas.
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