manutdmatt1986
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Posts posted by manutdmatt1986
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Anyone seen the high resolution NMM model? - http://images.meteociel.fr/im/1157/nmm-1-60-0_ybb5.png
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Latest GFS looks very snowy for the South East - http://images.meteociel.fr/im/1062/gfs-2-66_ora7.png
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Things look snowy in the South West by 6am Monday according to the NAE - http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=48&ZOOM=1&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&PANEL=0&LOOP=0&INFO=0&WMO=
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OK, first of the hi-resolution models and it's NAE:
It's showing a lot less precip:
and not in our region during it's current time-scale:
It look like it could just be starting to show the extreme South part of the snow potential in it's last chart of the current output:
Not encouraging, but we aren't by any means there just yet....
The last chart is only Midnight Sunday. The front isn't really due to push up until after then.
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Still waiting for some decent snowfall here (it was a rotten winter). I think the snow looks likely to just miss here yet again.
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Low to SW is 5mb stronger at T+42 on GFS 18Z - that will lead to a slightly further north track and the precip further north - but so will the colder 850 temps!
Yep. I was just about to say the low looks slightly further North. 18 z - http://images.meteociel.fr/im/2533/gfs-0-60_khu5.png 12z - http://images.meteociel.fr/im/649/gfs-0-66_ngl5.png
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UKMO-GM modifications have the M4 as approximate delineation. Broad consensus at this range, but halfway-house approach for yellow warning at present. Either way, UK4 (extended), run with cold, nil & warm biases, generates only snow as PPN signal. That model also has M4/Bristol as approximate N'rn boundary by 12z Mon, across ESE to Sussex (ish) in so far as the southern UK event is concerned.
Awaiting latest EC-EPS and MOGREPS snow probs updates.
Sounds like yet another near miss for me. Thanks for the update, Ian.
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Latest from UKMO as far as Thurs sees little change to previous: in summary, "Risk of a few light wintry showers on exposed eastern coasts, increasing risk of loc moderate wintry showers in the S/SE by Thurs".
I like the sound of that! Thanks, Ian.
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More widespread snow further North on this run due to the high being further North. Poorer for snowfall in the South East. No point getting hung up on such small details at this point though.
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I'm liking this run very much. A much better angle of attack from the East, cold spreading West quickly and snow showers packing into Eastern areas.
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Apart from the possibility of a channel low bringing widespread snowfall to many southern areas.Typical the GFS comes on board and the UKMO/ECM are relatively poor compared to previous outputs.
The problem with the UKMO is the HP needs to be further N to increase the convective potential.
http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?15-06
The ECM between +120&+144 would bring some convective snow showers but beyond this it would be just cold, dry, dull, miserable type weather.
Still im not worried because the positioning and orientation of the HP will change even inside +72. Lets just hope the GFS/GEM are right.
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You guys think its actually snowing in Strood/Rochester. Awww bless
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Scratch that, it's sleet rather than snow.
HA! What a crap winter this has been for us down here (Medway)
Heavy sleet. I think that counts as a blizzard for us
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Properly snowing in Rochester at last. No idea if its settling as I can't tell from my office window. A lot of cars driving through Rochester from other areas this morning were covered in thick snow but the ones that had been in Rochester overnight were bare. Sums it up really.
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Our heaviest snowfall of the winter at the moment. You can actually see some of the snowflakes without squinting and we almost have a sprinkling on some of the car roofs.
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Norfolk and Suffolk already had snow events this winter can u feel sorry for us please lol I've had to lampost watch about 7hours of melting snow :-((((((((
Which part of North West Kent are you in? I've almost got a dusting on some of the car roofs here. Its a whiteout compared to the rest of this winter.
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WOW! It's actually properly snowing! I never thought I'd see the day!
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Car windscreens and roofs starting to turn white. I think that counts as a white out by Rochester standards
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Oh dear
Well, when I say white its more like slushy.
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Car windscreens starting to turn a bit white. Officially my 2nd best snowfall of the winter
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The Medway snow shield has been breached!!!!!! Just a shame everything is drenched.
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Sleet has finally turned to snow here. Unlikely to settle I would think.
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Thought my height would help tonight
How tall are you?!
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I'm giving up!! We won't get anything out of this tonight...... We need our snow to come from the east!
Yep, we've seen no strong easterlies this winter and our area has had a terrible winter as a result.
South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 9th March 2013
in Regional
Posted
It showed Monday being snowy but tomorrow being snowless. Where had all the snow showers gone?!