manutdmatt1986
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Posts posted by manutdmatt1986
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Those are from the GFS, which I don't rate at all. The NAE has just updated and looks good!Oww that could be messy tonight:
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Can someone explain where the idea that the snow chances for our region have downgraded? None of the models have downgraded the risk (they all have consistently shown rain during tomorrow turning to snow during the evening) and none of the professional forecasters have suggested downgrades. Thanks.
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Dear me guys. 90 mins ago we were all looking forward to a nice snowy spell tomorrow evening and night. Now it's all doom and gloom. How many times have the models chopped and changed over the last 48 or even 12 hours. Come on a bit of patience is needed here. I'm off to to bed now, and will eagerly await the forecasts tomorrow. Over and out. Night all!
None of the models have downgraded the snow chances four our region and none of the professional forecasters have changed their forecasts for our region. I don't know where the doom and gloom from some people on here has come from!
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Ah well. I expected downgrades, was hoping it wouldn't happen but never mind...
There haven't been any downgrades!
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Which is what has been forecast all along.............18z NAE has downgraded again. Rain for the majority by lunchtime. Perhaps some light wet snow late evening. No doubt it will change again overnight though.
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NAE for midnight Sunday. Much as you were - http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201302091800&VAR=prty&HH=30&PRINT=1&ARCHIV=0&PANEL=0&INFO=0&WMO=
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hi teits.
The GFS will be to far NE/E.
It always is.
S
Agreed. The GFS precipitation charts are always wrong and continue to go against all the other models and forecasts from the professionals.
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NAE out to midday tomorrow - http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=18&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= So long as the precipitation stays light whilst its too warm to fall as rain it will mean the surfaces aren't too wet for the snow to settle tomorrow evening.
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People do realise that the cold air isn't due to dig in until tomorrow evening, don't they? Only people seem to be writing off snow in 24 hours time because the temperature are too high right now! As for the graphical forecasts on the BBC and Met office websites, ignore them. They are purely computer generated and have no human input.
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Come on gfs ppn charts!! Die ukmo and nme!
The GFS gives rain for almost the entire region with only temporary snowfall.
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Fully expecting downgrades and a shift north east now after reading mod thread
Erm, why? I have seen nothing to suggest that. Ian is saying that the Met Office don't agree with the snow amounts shown on the NAE for Central Southern England. Nothing to do with our region.
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From Ian Fergusson:
"No. High res no panacea: can actually exacerbate inaccurate solution. For example, UKMO-GM and MOGREPS-R output bears little resemblance to 12z NAE re snow distribution and amounts in central-southern England. Hence awaiting 18z with interest".
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Hmm, I am not sure this is going to be cold enough judging by the 850`s.
I am going to set sail for Holland in the morning and see hat happens.
The 850hpa temperature isn't a very important factor in this setup. Things such as dew points and precipitation intensity will be more important.
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Interesting map from the Met Office - http://twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/300298144065916928/photo/1
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Just seen the National forecast which appeared to be running off new data. It looked like the Northern extent of tomorrow's snowfall was further South but it still looked good for our region
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@Essexweather on twitter!
"Rain turning to sleet around Midday. Full snow by 6pm"
"5cm+ expected."
"Expect upgrade to Amber warning later today"
Bring it on!!!
These guys were near perfect during the last cold spell.
I believe they get information from the Met Office, somehow
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42nae shows rain for most
48 even worst
That would probably be light snow which, for some reason, the NAE always shows as blue (a bit confusing).
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Hmmmm. Latest NAE doesn't look good so far. Only out to midday Sunday but the snow risk looks to be much further North - http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=prty&WMO=&ZOOM=0&RES=0&PERIOD=&PANEL=0&ARCHIV=0&BASE=201302091200%26HH%3D24
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Victor meldrew has the most apt name on the forum.
Good luck tomorrow. I think there will be some very variable reports across the region as opposed to jan when most got similar totals (apart from manutdmatt)
I'm in negotiations for the Medway snow shield to be temporarly deactivated
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Freezing here in the chilterns. Had wet snow all morning. But nothing laid. Had a tweet to say the Gritters aren't Gritting tonight. But think they are going to regret it.
Temp 2.2
Dew point just below freezing
House even colder look
K x
A sure sign that snow is on the way. They only grit the roads when a light frost is expected.
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The high resolution WRF model on meteociel looks great for our region - http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php
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Truth be told If i had the choice i'd pull my funding/tax payers money for the met office, I'd hate to think what they'd forecast if we had the type of event that the ne USA is having. Would probably forcast a chance of snow, then loads of people would've died
Forecasting the weather in the US is a lot easier than forecasting the weather in the UK. The UK has the most complicated weather on earth.
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Just seen the latest BBC South East video forecast which appeared to show an amber warning signal when the warning level is only yellow....
South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 9th February 2013 17:00hrs>
in Regional
Posted
First signs of the colder air starting to dig in. Here we go! Its on!