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manutdmatt1986

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Posts posted by manutdmatt1986

    London & South East Regional Discussion 22nd January 2013 22:00hrs>

    in Regional

    Posted

    Yep, me as it happens.

    A period of snow is shown for the weekend but it would turn back to rain after a few hours. There has been a slight trend however for the trough to dig further south on the last couple of runs. If this trend is repeated in the morning we could be looking at a significant snow event in the SE. It's not there yet before anyone gets excited, but with the models its important to look at the trends from run to run rather than just the one chart. This additional resistance from the block is sneaking up on us quietly.

    As an example of how a poor looking chart can deliver big time if someone can find it its worth posting up the chart from last feb which at face value looked rubbish.

    Jason

    Wouldn't bet against it. The models, in particular the GFS, tend to overdo Atlantic incursions and are often too progressive with any breakdown of blocking and cold conditions. Wouldn't surprise me if we did see a decent spell of snow though I do think the Atlantic will push through and bring milder conditions, at least for a while. My main concern for the chances of a breakdown being snowy is that the uppers won't be particularly cold, only around -4 to -6 I think.

    London & South East Regional Discussion 22nd January 2013 22:00hrs>

    in Regional

    Posted

    Croydon Council highways division have a MetO radar monitoring system. The staff can keep an eye on developments and can call the MetO's hotline at any time. The top man at the Council decided to send out the gritters earlier based on my Yamkin style intervention laugh.png

    Do the cleaning staff answer the phone?

    It doesn't appear to be going anywhere. In fact it's fragmenting as it tries to progress northwestward

    I'm rich!!! clapping.gif

    London & South East Regional Discussion 21st January 2013, 12z onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    As the front heads back west we could see more in the south pushing north dragging the ppn over and off the channel.

    Also major thaw toady not really that bothered as I hear the ECM has thrown out a interesting mix tonight?

    Don't see a great deal of excitement in the ECM apart from maybe heights trying to rise in the Midland Atlantic and up toward Greenland? - http://images.meteociel.fr/im/8772/ECM1-240_hxw0.GIF

    London & South East Regional Discussion 21st January 2013, 12z onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by manutdmatt1986

    Fridays POSSIBLE snow event-

    Well the breakdown is coming- however the is obne last try of a snow event for this region in particular if the shortwave trough extends south & we stay on the northern flank before it dies & slides away into france.-

    ECM PPN for Friday night- ETA midnight- possibly later-

    http://en.vedur.is/p...122_1200_84.png

    http://en.vedur.is/p...122_1200_90.png

    850s ok-

    http://en.vedur.is/p...122_1200_84.png

    Possible slush on the south coast -

    So a possibly 6-10 hour event with strong southerlies ahead it could bring blizzard conditions over the downs & elevated areas-

    Estimates- especially for the north of london- 5-10cm before it melts Saturday.....

    you have your early warning......

    S

    Rain more likely to low levels I would think? Atlantic lows normally just bring rain rather than snow to rain down here, unless they undercut like last Friday of course but that seems unlikely this time.

    A slight covering of snow here biggrin.png

    Stopped snowing now nonono.gif

    Gritters were deployed at approx 19:00 ph34r.png

    MetO really got this snow forecast wrong spiteful.gif

    Friday/Saturday back edge will be very interesting for the SE as we will have a few cm's clap.gif

    Next big freeze in my books will be early Feb cold.gifcold.gifcold.gif

    Maybe we should have bets on when the next cold spell will start (assuming there will be another one this winter).

    London & South East Regional Discussion 21st January 2013, 12z onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    I would like to clear something up about what I said and hopefully draw a line about it. Matt of course is entitled to his opinion, it's just that for me, personally it was too much. Sometimes he said how people were going OTT and how much of a non event this is in three different ways on nearly each page! Today wasn't the first time and I just thought oh no, not again. So no offence Matt, I just found your comments and repetitiveness a little too much. I heard them the first time.

    I practically live in that model thread so am very fine about hearing bad news. Just not in that way.

    I hope that the arguments can stop now and to the mods, I am sorry about this. I realise I should've just blocked without saying anything.

    Didn't even realise you'd commented on my comments so no worries blum.gif I just thought some people were being ridiculous with their predictions which leads to false hope for some and it sounded like they were hope casting rather than forecasting. A big snow event was never on tonight but from some comments you'd think it was. A few places have obviously been lucky and seen a decent dumping though (mainly Surrey by the sounds of it).

    London & South East Regional Discussion 21st January 2013, 12z onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by manutdmatt1986

    Mate you've got your own opinion and so has everyone that's what this forum is about but it's not worth bickering over snow. It just ruins the thread

    Tell that to the others as well! I didn't start the abuse! Unfortunately, some people get upset when they don't see people predicting what they want to happen. My fault for being realistic I guess.

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