[Moans, ramps and banter]

1 minute ago, PsychedelicTony said:

The met website local temperatures are fairly accurate. 

For 48 hrs yes!

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

The models point to a cold week but bbc weather app forecasts don’t reflect this. 5C in Essex next week is only 1C below average.

Some on here were talking about ice days earlier.

It’s quite  amazing that when the models pick up a mild signal, it’s rarely wrong!

Apps are already via viewing- stale data. leave them alone if you want the sharpest/ updated output.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

QT- eps 12z Monday/Thursday… romping. the devil in the shortwaving  detail - yet undetermined…

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

Low is too far south

1 thing 4 sure even though we have divergent syndrome via gfs + 168 hrs max> it will be the go to raw for this feature….

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

144 ec  the scope  is very much there @ undercut!! The 850 hpa could be a whole lot different within range @36 hr mark- the geographical land points way off still.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Let’s get this party started on the 12>shorts- at the eyed on snow progs… it’s - the extended don’t  look to shabby either!

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Very very nice UKMO 168

Txt book arctic impact flow- and pop ups galore…

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, Drifter said:

Just a word of warning - GEM snow charts are absolutely useless. 

I’m surprised it isn’t showing is snowbound today!

All precipitation charts as as useful as a blind man ona sight seeing holiday at the juncture..but take note when there’s a blend of the  craved … via all outs- .. as there is.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

If possible notable snow events are your staple.. without deep entrenched cold “ The Canadian/GEM 12z run is your  go to mod…. What an afternoon already…. Ukmo hopefully rumping-the raws .... on we move @ec12

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

I don’t know!! The gfs is evolutionary sharp/ reliable out to 180.. then it’s a dogs dinner!! It’s trait n, fold after that is a confused mess!!.. craving energy’s response and default mode is now looking real!!!- miss management for sure .

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

It would do better if it didn’t close it in the first place.  Really think GFS has this wrong!

…imo

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Could be a rippper!!. Could just do with a drop rather than floating low country dynamic! Then the polar air literally meets the Chanel feature!!!… possible news maker in the offing…

Ohhh err gfs 12z

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

This is gonna be incredibly interesting/ intriguing this @ channel low- at spilling arctic flow = snow   

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Could be a rippper!!. Could just do with a drop rather than floating low country dynamic! Then the polar air literally meets the Chanel feature!!!… possible news maker in the offing…

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Gfs stern in finding anyway possible to keep notable cold away from our shores… even tho… opportunities are abundant..

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, KTtom said:

UK long range weather forecast

Tuesday 16 Jan - Thursday 25 Jan

Cold with wintry showers affecting northwestern coasts, with showers moving inland especially in the north, clearer in the south. Potential for more persistent snow through Tuesday in the northwest. There is risk of unsettled weather pushing in from the south through midweek, potentially leading to areas of snow and sleet where it meets the colder air across the country. Confidence is low regards the timing of the arrival of any such disturbance, but there is an increasing risk of something potentially disruptive at some point in this period. Widespread frosts continue by night with wintry showers from the northwest between further potential pulses of snow as weather fronts move in from the west these likely drawing in milder conditions by next weekend.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Thu 11 Jan 2024

Likely?/ and nxt weekend..   that’s all you need to think after a 7 day already cold / probably snowy period!!!

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

54 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

So we’re really all now freaking out because some random dude said to @MATTWOLVES 3 on Twitter that the met office are going to downgrade a forecast for over a weeks time? Oh okay then 

Nuts isn’t it!!!

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

If it does turn out to be a 7 day cold spell, that would be very disappointing with all the positive signs that were / are present.

Personally, I think that T96 is the limit of any credibility at the moment. There is far too much uncertainty beyond that, to the point where the OP runs are effectively useless.

I’d agree 96/120 hrs is the snap off point atm .. for sure…

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

It feels like upto 180h GFS 06z has everything wintry possible but lets us have none of it. I'm hopeful we see changes in the modelled positioning of the lows etc.

It’s almost a certainty kasim @changes on scale as we approach the outbreak.. I’m happy as a pig in poo right now

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Forming Chanel low.. honestly if your not happy with these winter Synoptics/ possibilities.. give up the ghost!!! The 6z has everything wintery “ possible “.. and will like throughout the ..

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, Snowman. said:

More runs needed.

  

As per previous post the wobbling is fraught.. alignment tricky n dynamical.. but we’ll get there shortly.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Big upgrade here via 6z what’s not to like .. the polar jet rocking at us… and a variety of decent solutions from here on in… 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

25 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

The APERGE still rock solid in bringing a much cleaner northerly been consistent for a while now 

Good mod the AE.. very underestimated in grand scale Synoptics.. and even moreso locale/geographically via precipitation 24/36 hrs out…And just to quickly say- the cross board ops— AND supports won’t come into respectable lines until Friday / Saturday.. when the nearing of actual arctic outbreak is almost upon us.. these raws swinging n swaying are obvious!.. the colds nailed.. just how cold - how long awaits the watch… that should in itself be an enjoyable thing… some seriously need the meds… CHILL

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

For those mentioning the GFS 18z det being part of a trend..

Yeah, not so much! Very tight cold clustering, det is outlier territory.

Cracking set out to the 19th

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

23 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Huge dump 

I’m headging  my bets this early on unusually,that this will be about fruition track n drop!!! @ classic engagement then pivot as the cold air starts to repel the system.. speculative- but my punt early day’s.. we’ll see

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

5 hours ago, tight isobar said:

Go to the ec- this ev for overall hemisphere / placement / compare-Synoptics.. then follow the 18z American (gfs) for Atlantic runners into the trough-cold air in situ.. on we run .. 

to reiterate… it’ll be far from nailed here but the scope is gaining.