tight isobar
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Posts posted by tight isobar
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Go to the ec- this ev for overall hemisphere / placement / compare-Synoptics.. then follow the 18z American (gfs) for Atlantic runners
into the trough-cold air in situ.. on we run ..
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Savior if needed
.. there’s ya bk packer right there for keeping everything Cush…if indeed needed.. via icon 12z
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The German 1 @96.. decent slant n, shape to the father flow!!.. and those shorts are being ushered away via now governing cell placement
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Right let’s ride on
for the 12z today. We are now in encroachment @ cold . There are boundaries/ diversity/ dynamical unresolved… But what a situ to be heading into
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12 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:
Control run bringing the -15c Isotherm through the North of the UK is mental and it remaining cold after!
They are the 00z tags..
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Just now, kold weather said:
Despite a rough start the 18z run goes onto to become a bit of a classic.
Goes to show what better upper synoptic can do in the long run if we luck out.
A rough start??. You wouldn’t have the GFS atm as a babysitter!!!
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Just now, Scott Ingham said:
This feels like it’s picked up on the next stage of travel into Scandi and has rushed through the outcomes forgetting we’ve got a large blocking high in Greenland!
Bang on
.. the evolutionary trait of the gfs after 108/168.. is somehow disturbing!!.. it deviates in a Bipolaric slant…. Then by way of narssasism, goes from zero to hero….
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1 certain aspect now. It’s as plain as , plain. The gfs- American model..is either having a bout of turmoil.. or is going to lead rapid now via it’s evolution/evolutions. And the cut point is without doubt via the overnights. 00z suites.. at least resolve is near.
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The good point in basis.. when the American mod op/raw- is up against most/ all other raws at given time stamps!! And also starts shortwave/ lps ejection from the weaker lobe… it’s failing..
.. so the gfs is on dynamic .. playing catch up.
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18 minutes ago, tight isobar said:
The Icelandic wave still niggles but as former the breakaway relative shortwaves look better tracked..
Shutdown time again.. the gfs is either seriously misfiring on the polar field.. or it’s steadfast with the new by road!!@simple…
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The Icelandic wave still niggles but as former the breakaway relative shortwaves look better tracked..
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Without getting into-inter run
to run snaps…. This is where explosive energy’s could bear fruit via gfs- evolution. A cluster bomb 
drop of shortwaves bonding.. can quickly distract western lobe transfer -east.. we’ll see in this run But it’s a start for the good.
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While the 18z gets running
.. just to flag up .. the devolution between today’s 12z mst’s and the 12z yesterday!.. via the gfs !!… the switch is emmense!.. the 18z should re- ignite the pathway… ?!!
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5 minutes ago, Bartlett High said:
Why can't we get a chart like this?
Whatta winter That was 12yrs old and.. it still sticks with me… also RIP Ian mCcaskill…another 1 has to bite someday… “ is it now”?? … maybe??!!
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The overall Synoptics are the main point…And the ec12z offers up very decent ones for cold for the uk @168- and forwarding.. you’d take these Synoptics at any given year..
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2 minutes ago, markw2680 said:
I have absolutely no idea what any of that means
“Summed up”… it’s as much use looking at precipitation charts.. anytime at such long time frames… let alone northern hemisphere modeling being clueless- as a whole- at that range
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4 minutes ago, frosty ground said:
Check that against the uppers in places like Europe, not even remotely correct or worth paying attention to.
Straight up here (no offense to yaself or indeed anyone)- but looking at singular time wrap precipitation frames… when the state of flux grand scheme is in turmoil for decipher in itself.. ain’t at all worthy!
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22 minutes ago, Allseasons-Si said:
Unfortunately it would phase with the ESB trough(red arrow),so not that good really,we need clean seperation of these two for height's to sustain the pattern.
No lies
.. we need every dynamical reinforcement. To de-stabilize the morphing of the father/ daughter lobes!.. this is where the models are at loggerheads though (which is good)!.. as the energy forcing through the at/ nw- polar reaches are in a state of confuse right now.. but the feeling is positive… as you’d expect such as the polar reaction is always a confuse of mass b4 cross/ stable alignment. I’m sure we have this 
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Gfs falling off the boat here!! And is making AGAIN a mess and a mountain- out of pac ridge format.. and miss management of energy’s for sure now !!!
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Brutal arctic air looking to want to spill.. the Greenland/Canadian formats also looking good for the holding pack!!
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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
We’re trying to build up our defences against the Dark Force as in the Atlantic attack . The Death Star will try and attack the weak point of any blocking .
Thats why we want that straight flow and block in a better position before Darth Vader and his sidekicks attack .
Its crucial to have a solid start , if you see that bulge in the flow early and the block orientating more ne sw it’s easier for Vader to break through our defences.
At that point the battle is almost lost .
# Save Princess Leia !
You been on the vino at all ,this arvo nick
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Very nice.. much sharper Synoptics.. helping the alignment of both flow.. And blocking
@ the German mod..
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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:
ICON at T90 hrs is an upgrade on its 06 hrs run . Better profile to the ne .
Much better on the German..early in
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Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by tight isobar
Tbh I’d fully expect that- the operational will regularly whip with the control- in these Atlantic v cold air masses .. I’m kinda liking it with those other members bellying down..@ battleground!