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Posts posted by tight isobar
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I know this will some “resonating “.. but after the initial evolution/ stages 0/168.. the gfs looks FAR to progressive with pop up energy miss placement.. I maybe wrong but we’ll soon have an idea @ ens/12z…
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Cross lobe engagement!.. and the gfs 6z wants shut off!
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5 minutes ago, Catacol said:
ECM has just thrown out the most potentially snow charts across the UK from days 8-10 that we have seen since 2018. I'm in a rush - I dont have time to read the many pages of comments, though I will predict that some are very happy at these and some are bemoaning the marginal 850s in the south and sounding the doom-bell.
850 predictions at day 8 are utterly irrelevant. Look for the pattern. Cold trough, channel systems bumping into it. There are snow opportunities likely from both convective shower streams off the north sea as well as cold/warm boundary frontal events.
This is about as good as it gets. Happy days says this pig in sh*t. Enjoy your own day if you can and remember (contrary to my initial post yesterday!) that 12z forecasts are verifying better than 00z at the moment so let's build on this morning's foundation later on.
Couldn’t have written this better myself .. And just to highlight, 00z suites have been lagging.. And as you say the 12z have Been the pack cruncher’s.. with all other about in between.. on we march to our now started cold period
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I’d take this in any winter going forward- @ ecm 00z- low/ mid southern England.
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Gfs12z absolute snowfest- but drains the cold in stages.. and latter.. some run through on its own elaboration’s!!!- and just another sync on winter Synoptics going forward
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Snowing steady here Bampton.. settlement on roofs / grass..
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Just arrived bk in Bampton/ west oxfordshire.. snowing lightly..
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7 minutes ago, leaskovski said:
Is Reading and its surronding areas included in this group or should I be in the southern one, not the SE one? There should be a map or something that shows what areas actually are.
Tricky 1 that.. I’m caught between uxbridge- middlesex, And my other place of living at times Bampton west oxfordshire!! Anyway you’re covered in here
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Off to my 2nd place of living this afternoon….west oxfordshire… could be another place that may hold reasonably this evening!!!
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Ec seems to be struggling with the whole arctic Synoptics!. However- this mornings total evolution seems to be getting to grips…slowly…
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That’s a cracking 168 ecm polar profile- given not sharp clearance around Greenland- however those heights are hard punched deeply into the pole. And want that fatherlobe locked clear on the eastern most side.
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Gfs 18.. sliding into line with its Canadian sister mod- nearly txt book blocking via Greenland.. and a polar spillage of some awe !!
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Ukmo graphical precipitation/ flow variations.. picking up vividly on streamer activity. And for around an 8 hr period through tomorrow it’s not hard to see shower activity pushed well inland and on a more northerly track….( Amounts and exactions null atm)-as winds veer notably more easterly-. Longer term steady as she goes- ec12z basics. The beer run will be a good watch this evening.
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Just now, Penrith Snow said:
I love the kink in the isobar over Cumbria
But I ain’t kinky
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Im personally looking 4 the new ice age