tight isobar

Alls well that ends well- perhaps??, ecm on a clear page of heights building around Scandinavia!!, not as prounced as the GFS in given time frames.. but ‘certainly ‘ the door is becoming ajar for the continental/easterly rhythmic ..

Ec@ 192 - hints of shallow heights into Scandinavia- she’s going the gfs route

Ecm - mid table- notching northerly #2 (nxt week)and as again my reckoning is the 850s being underplayed atm..

Well,if current modelling continues with the easterly route- then many times nowhere does better than southern And eastern Britain.. so keep the faith

The Canadian - wants to keep us ina cold flow of variations practically throughout its run ?.. gonna be an interesting viewing of the ecm 00z suite.. for sure - and it’s matching - or not of evolution!

Jeeeez massive upgrades this morning- with the wrap of heights.. -12 hpa, now making inroads to uk via progressive evolution via the 00z suite.. as the easterly component gathers momentum (maybe) also northerly # 2 is looking pretty nailed.. to what extent/or modified content, still remains to be resolved... fantastic trends this morning @ long may they continue.

Just had a peak into the north west/ north east regionals!!. Some impressive snowfalls- vids/pics

Heavy clumpy sleet now.. as dictated via net -Dar...@uxbridge definable conversion taking place now as true polar air digs behind.

Current conditions here @ Uxbridge 2c and light sleet. The 18z gfs is now completing and was of note on many factors!!!!

Now alternating bk to an Atlantic persuasion!, there are many many options going forward... and it would seem for the better- in cold terms-!

And indeed via the 18z @240 we indeed have a continental feed!!!. Let’s hope for more of this going forward @ been noticing up in the supporting data’s of late also.

Gfs 18z and we have a nearly easterly with a wrap of height @point - Scandinavia.. the signals are gaining rapid ,and early for this evolution , of late !!

Another day - Another pronounced, modelling of a Synoptic- troubled- vortices eject polar vortex. And as mentioned the other day northerly incursion # 2 gaining momentum. And as again also I’ll still note that it may easily trump the weekend incursion. And where another week will make a difference in the temperature plot region @ into December!!..

Wasn’t talking about snow/precipitation charts just today’s raw - operational, that’ll be the one closest to the nark of track etc for the nxt 12/24 hrs!..@ always is @12z imo of course.

Ecm the 1 @ this point @ track @ trace.always trumps

The polar high won’t go away either.. and ties in with probable Pacific differentiations - via Nina construction

The 2m, temperature plots .. and again they are telling short/mid term.. through the euro view it’s dip n, dive. With even current raw models tipping the knife edge notions of possible tap ins ..@rest well @ major blocking formats to be resolved.

. Again we face a bizarre season.@winter with conflict- and miss modelling at a short range.. as we gain.. keep this in mind @ la- Niña consequential.

These Synoptics are of regulatory momentum right now, and have been in single sector courses for a while.. mid December, is to say the very least.. an interesting trigger point!!

I’ve snapped this frame : marker for the reason of the endless possibilities of a disruptive tropospheric polar vortex, and as b4 the outer equations @Especialy - Nina responses hold a lot of characteristic weight, to the non tuning of model alignment. And that is for around mid December, and the possibilities of the drainage of the temporary limit home based vortex.. looks to me - that-the bailiff wanted her out!!! We’ll go into mobility for sure.. but not for long.. I’m sure.!! @ pack those other upper layer bags missus , and look for residences elsewhere

My money is rapidly heading that way @momentumn overide= Scandinavia formats.

The ens throughout the latest suite @6z offering no real solutions.. lots of scatter! We’ll leave this to the rawest outs @ rolling operationals for the nxt few days!- that would be a sensicle option imo. I’ll personally be delving through the Nina latest reference for “perhaps some disclosure “?!.. @ being kept toe-tipped firmly.

We can as we have, see a drain of the main lobe Canadian pv.. extracting to the north eastern side!.. models are toying with both scenarios atm- with a limp it pv also at its home point!@canadian geographical.. either are as likely as the other as we stand... so need need for panic on any front atm!!- on we go..

A good balancing post- however I’m sure the majority in here-as everywhere, are well and truly on the fence for the mid- December period. And as it’s obviously now a more winter based thread- persons will look for all entry’s for a colder soulution. So I found some of you’re post a little bitter in quotation!.@Bias etc. But I suppose it would be a boring place.. And indeed world if we were all one way thinkers on the same page.

One can only imagine having an arctic high in place here.. at this time with pv vortices running amok.. and sitting over northern Scotland.. @Armagedon comes to mind.. some quite Bizzare Synoptics appearing into the FI points... a very interesting start to what could be a very bizarre winter ! Rest well