tight isobar

Vortex disconnects. With Nina workings . I’m f these Synoptics fail ya as a cold persuasive human- then see how much wool ya local knitting shop has!. And rekindle - or start a new hobby ?

Eps - 500s scripture!.. and the pub poke ?? Were dancing on thin ice.. or “maybe thicker “?? ?.. blocking formatting is of notability . I decipher as I drink juss .. a little more . The seasons are short... life is shorter ???.. @ enjoy

Imo- the deflation is a tad premature?!.. what’s you’re progs on why that maybe?@ I can’t understand why.. I’m intrigued??

Ya gotta love the “bipolar thread “.. where people can melt away - with not only model-meteorology analysing , but who’s had more brew than them!?.. Anyway this is still as my day.. an- open party . But we need to submit what’s - what with the 10 day window.. after today’s 12z outs . Have a good day...@ I am

Err- yeah ??- but you’re wallet, and liver hasn’t been traumatised has it?? By my doings... .

!!! , whoa .. that’s way tooo, premature. An incursion of cold is certain.. the depths- and rolling possibilities once we get to fruition is still as open as anything. And moreso with where you’re situated @ morcambe, north west facing... at- even the initial shot @northerly... you are in a prime geographical for anything in precipitation form , becoming wintry in nature . There is a lot on the table through coming days.. and indeed weeks

Your in the wrong sorta forum mate ???@whos that at the window ?

Well, that’s a deciphering , discussion in itself. What I’m more interested in, if you always get away with being right/correct.. can I have your missus sisters phone number

Bk, in the here n, now.. still after the initial incursion (that even could still alternate) .. ignoring the scatter spreads the mean is below the main... and that has to make the scale for cold.. into colder (given an array of outs).. the possible route for... a better decline for members.. with the shunt of limbering on winter proper.. in our vicinity!!@ these the London ones.. edit; I’m getting a good feeling here... !!

It’s becoming an- obsession of mine scrutinising paper/ logged formats, of Nina/nino el- opposition, of ramifications of seasonal inflation/influence- decreased- or stability of , but more exclusively, for both upper layer effect @mess/@trop/strat oss/. And the influence on both reversal of layer /trades,and the conjunction with the initial oceanic surface- gradient- welling into the equatorial gas, filters toppings into the largest influence of water mass @pacific!.. and the wonder is.. even the top analysts (no names) are as obsessed as myself.. more so than upper layer secondary @SSW , which is now surely the notion for the above mentioned..@: oceanic forcing.. but that in itself demons almost hypocrisy... and there’s the wonder!!.@whos the real initial antagonist!!?.. anyway in short.. the mortal prognosis for all above.. imo could not be better for ourselves this season!.. and have a little empathy for the CMS @computer models trying to infiltrate/intake the dramatics of such, because oddly as their data inputs upgrade, it seems the more diverse the prognosis become!!.. this was never an- exact science @ meteorology!!?.. great tho, ain’t it.. and that’s why we-are here ?

F-I as it’s spoken, as a rule is @144 hrs. And that being on a regulated platform, @even cross modelling agree.. in placid situations. As routed/ evolve atm I would “personally clump @96hrs “- and that as an example of possible dramatic syncs!

The true circumstances of tropospheric/strat resonates are the same as .. supercharged-supercells combination/combustion.. the states are in a prime zone with land mass- and deep fed oceanic feeding of energy..= thus even minor block formats will by physics encourage a water feed like try- of spill .. thus > news casting @ POLAR Vortex visits/ falls on USA .. when in fact it doesn’t!! It’s residual upper layer formats of that.. but in compare , it isn’t the fore mentioned.. as it is what it is.. the pc>@ polar vortex is what it says on the time..@polar.. and is dripping of upper layer construction.. anyway.. if we see as “modelled recently “ a drop off vortice: from the polar vortex.. then its one for the meteorological winter booklet!??.. and I’m starting to wonder truly.. that possibilities with such shunts.. are beginning to land in laps ?

Signature trop , response.. and with a buy 1 get 1 free drop.. honestly, I’m as exited as I’ve ever been mid- long term .. Nina refers are still also at crossroads with mentions of possible results/responses @our quadrant.!!.

Eps 12z @ Themos/@500s as good as they get in regards November late!and the punching of the pv is more than of note. The ample for cold spillage is paramount ..and you’d have to say going forward from this -as regards the norther hem profiling.@ blocky as lego!!

@jet profile; it’s looking real wheel and come again.. as the Pacific sting jet will only aid /encourage wave effect.. and open up yet more blocking situations. There is plenty.. plenty to be looking at from here on in .. especially if cold is you’re persuasive way

The angle, of alignment on the run12z retracts “initially “ the real cold.. (hp)but as again- this cell will ebb around and change the Synoptics. Anyway this another overall decent out @12z gfs edit; and yet another very snowy run mid- long range... on we move

That’s absolutely staggering cold for anytime let alone November..@the Greenland plate

Well not quite some data show at-least a partial greeny, and to add we really don’t need a full scale hlb Greenland high for deep cold in the uk.. that being only for prolonging any incursion. Further I’d personally be looking now for eastern /north eastern block formats.. going forwards.. given current modelling!

Cracking stiff via the 6z and illustrating- or at least should- throwing the towel in on the cusp of turning cold— colder is a never thing... onwards we march @ not forgetting this was always progged for late November in the 1st offing.

On thing of note and a big note .. what were losing in timeframe at point Greenland.. were gaining out east @ euro trough expansion...keep watching..

Exactly that

The 18z is a great run ?.. and for these visions.. it intersperses evolutionary trait that matches the Synoptics... where we are generally cold, but having blink eye transition into somewhat milder/brief interludes.. and trust me.. for those tactical evolutionarys.. the best cold/snowy spells come .. and with perhaps a more defined and draw able fridged spell soon afterward... great run Edit; and I can’t wait to see the supports on this .. some eye watering ones coming up.. for sure..!

Yes better ridge via the 18z as emphasised through the 1.5 window

And just a reminder this model @JMA is still used as an, overall prognosis tool by the MET- and is held in pretty high regard!@ the japenese model ??

Nowhere near classic miss- modelling as with anytime a cold spell/snap is incurring. S,all good in the hood as far as I’m concerned.. plenty of resolve yet.