tight isobar

Tonight’s ecm12z is a pretty good evolutionary- illustration, of exactly why we need a firm eye on those height placements- it’s pick- and pock at this juncture... however no rocket science needed to confirm the opportunities are vast.. and a possible correction of not very much would have the initial high pressure cell becoming an olive branch to begin ‘perhaps ‘ a linkage/tap to the by then preety deep cold air sourcing the the north east.. and indeed east... some supporting data has already begun hinting.. as we gain..@ interesting

Morning... well hardly “solid support “!. (ATM)!But certainly a lot ridding in the correct-direction for the final 3rd @ November. The notable points are the extraction of large sector vortex to the easternmost n- hemisphere, there are hints @ big hints of some v- notable cold injection into Scandinavia- and indeed likely large swathes of Eastern Europe as the month comes to conclusion. It’s eyeing the wedges of block placement formats.. as we move further towards the crossroads. A basic insight this morning... but I’m sure I’ll be back soon. As I’m certainly liking the possible routes available ...enjoy your Saturday.

getting into real synoptic conflict/confuse territory now, the La Niña consequence now filtering through the upper middle latitudes, and conflicting model signals will begin exactly what is being perceived!. The only way until late November - to gage imo will be through overall consensus , through 24 hr suites.. it’s just pick 1 and go with it.. then 24 hrs later compare. Then run through the same sequence on all other available avenues @other mods and there supporting.. mid month should open that door wide.. and the 11th is global review/- probable impact day/discussion.. for the winter ahead.. hold tight .. this could be our year..@the axe falling on the correct tree,?!??...

Earlier suite @12z showing a classic toppler as energy re-emerge in the mid Atlantic.. though.. our latest raw @18z suite has a different angle on this scenario!!. We await the full suite supports, and upcoming outs- to decipher whether it’s a classic pub run ? drive.. or it may be into something!??.

Further we’ll have a much clearer view from 11 November , when the CPC have their discussion/review on the Nina state-situ.. and possible global winter ramifications ... ciao fa now

Classic ENSO neutral state- now being modelled on the raws.@ Pacific thermocline?.. I’d say.. coupled with trade winds/upper layers sit-up=still to be deciphered!.. well for me if we don’t hit not only jackpot Synoptics.. but are bearing them on overhead /ground level.. around our geographical come late November/early December.. I think I’ll give up the ghost!.. for an early shot of notable cold.. I fail to see/ recall such a positive position to be in (forever) if you’re of cold weather persuasion.. the Atlantic will imo be all but in complete shutdown.. by mid/late November!!!... keep watching

Ok- just a quick 1.. if it’s an - opening to a mid cold November you require.. then these evolutionarys are worth watching!.. by then there is more than Ample cold for feed and tap.. and the pv is being imprisoned to Russian geographical!.. with if near the money , an obvious open gate for some eye watering waa =Blocking . Further if we indeed reach this plausible out.. the Eurasia side- including Eastern Europe.. would start the cold spilling process quite rapidly. And the Pacific side would be likely on flatline > block reinforcing... my hunch.. mid November,. And we could certainly be in a winter pocket of note:... as per we’ll watch evolutionary on this ..@starting point.

Well wait n- want has pulled me out.. @ silly season beckons .. anyway most of us I’m sure are aware, the upper layerings are in turmoil of thoughts - @ momentum’s!!.. anyway again pumping up the raws as a start point ... notables in a raw structure are .. that waving isn’t yet satisfied via points of influence, by a long way to start. The nina-mirror of- are taking de- flow off at the Pacific side this term.. and that’s a bonus point for any decision of cold injection.. for the maritime part of any mid latitudes . But agreed, the upper zonal influences are not as they were!.. but still confidently there!.. for gain ... I’ve pinned the jet streaks as a plain paper plot.. going into early November.. and imo again note that pacific pain in the rear.. is being way- layed!!.. and as a plot staring point.. as a guide the GEFS 500’s are like a KId waiting for the sweetshop to open!!!.. but with a little concern.. the keeper had passed!!.. ere we go... hedge ya bets .. but we “definitely have “ better grounds than most - points at this place ... ciao - fa-now .. yes the crank is bk

Plenty ere still -@last hurrah 26 /sunny

Yet another cracker here @uxbridge..26c gentle breeze/sunny

Trough- gate!!.. the wiggle room via all output remains immense.. it’s click into an- unsettled stagnant plot.. or deluge.. then a form of heat reload......!!!!

Tonight’s outs.. ecm moreso should brighten the mood????????.. fantastic outs and no doubt.. the 1st 30/30+ imminent!.. HP- it’s COMING HOME

Just popping in- to like this post/ assessment

Quite .. scanning through... to me it’s after the nxt 5 days on the up!..- and no surprise if we end up mid month @july with a monster HP encroachment over large swathes western/eastern Europe... there will always be an- Atlantic incursion rapid- or a little more stubborn.. but the overall outlook looks as July “perhaps being “ THE notable summer month!... we’ll crawl through the coming week.. then- its summer bk on firmly imo

You need to take the mean as the guide.. longer range.. and especially when the outliers are within its upper adjust!.. my rekonining is a stark upsurge in all members beginning to breach the mesn/ control.. quite impressively quite soon.. the temperature plots also both continue- and gain in a possible plume like spell into months end.. keep watching

Well worth a- pop in.. as we keep seeing certain output keeps hinting at upsurge interaction to building Iberian heat in around 8/ 10-days time.. once we rear out of the upcoming breakdown.. the mid- late temperature anoms highlights this well.!!. And the 500 geos updates also are leaning towards an upsurge.. one to watch for sure.. if we get the tap correct.. it’s serious scorchio time.. a bit later this month ..ciao fa- now .. currently hovering around 28c with high humidity here @uxbridge

IHowdy all. Popped in to basically highlights the much now (craved evolve).. even as a coldie I still love the sun/heat... anyway this looks like a prime set up evolving where as the high pressure takes hold.. we get a heat pump from very good sourcing- and indeed a notable settled/warm/ hot =hotter spell as we gain!!!.. why not we’ve waited long enough!!.. my hunch is thing may become inferno explosive .. as the anti ups.. and we develop the flow .. the temp plots- are beginning to note this well.. ciao enjoy ya summer

.. given current data- pneumonia /hypothermia could be the issue over covid in coming days!!!.. .. but I’ll risk it

We’re in sight of a major polar blast @nailed..minor dynamics just need reference... let’s av- a look after all 12z And matched @absolute madness

All alingned.. the arctic outbreak is on.. we just need to decipher to what degree nxt 3/4 days.. intriguing/interesting doesn’t even cut it.....

Imagine.. an- insane plot

Yep my borough @hillingdon

Just to add: with wider scale Synoptics geos/stamps/plots all very much on course for an arctic onslaught.. to what degree remains, in the closet .. for now... !!

Potent potent.. potent.. it’s an alarming lot of synoptics.. April or otherwise.. the arctic is literally spilling our way... wow the contrasting sequences other the nxt 12 days is something to behold...amazing stuff right now!!!!.. .. just dropping these in....

Jeez I find myself falling bk in here. Plots and ens that wouldn’t look at of kilter in mid January... and as noted the drop off gaining traction .. with higher sources looking evermore lonesome!! And don’t be mistaken for surface freeze even at this time... @April.. spring a rapidly descending cravement right now... let’s see where we go with this ?...