Yarmy
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Posts posted by Yarmy
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It seems the GFS 12z op run is both more and less amplified than the GFS 6z op run. Amazing scenes.
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13 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:
Whilst many on here want the low to be a bit further East (to enhance the snow risk), has anyone thought about the risk of east coast flooding that will bring?
This depression will enter the North Sea at just the correct angle for 'a North Sea surge' if it deepens rapidly enough.
Yes I do remember the 1952 event.
MIA
1953, but yes there are similarities. One of the worst natural disasters of the century, yet not all that well remembered (except for around here).
North Sea flood of 1953 - Wikipedia
EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG-
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The ECM 6z is available (in somewhat limited form) here:
weather model ecmwf model - united kingdom - surface pressure [base + 72] | weatheronline
WWW.WEATHERONLINE.CO.UKWeather for UK, Ireland and the world. Sailing, Marine Weather, Weather maps, radar, satellite, climate, historic weather data, information about meteorology...However, that run only goes out to T90 as far as I recall, so T72 is the latest data you will see there.
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Beautiful morning here, if a bit damp. Sky is that deep rich blue that you only really get in winter with the low sun.
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1 hour ago, damianslaw said:
Each to their own I guess. Polar air in winter is my preference, clear skies and sunshine. The westerly and more so south westerly just brings low cloud grey and misery - especially early winter to these parts. Vitamin D is what we need this time of year. Today marks the last of the very mild ones, polar air is sweeping in, and I'm happy!
Yeah, southwesterly murk in winter is about as welcome as a text message from Tim Paine for me, but each to their own. There’s so little light in the day that I crave clear blue skies.
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9 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:
Met Office Facebook showing temperatures dropping from 15c to 9c by Sunday. Hardly ‘cold’ as they are calling it
The real cold is still at least 7 days away on the model output. Assuming it arrives at all, of course.
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20 minutes ago, Barmada_Casten said:
Early signs of the wheels falling of this morning as predicted .... now cue the self-denial and straw clutching.
People just get fixated on individual runs, which is largely pointless after T120 (or even earlier). Following the means for the same runs day to day is more informative (imo, anyway).
Yesterday's ECM 0z T240:
...and today's ECM 0z T216:
So perhaps a slight move towards a more west-based -NAO (and conversely, a slight move away from a topple). A change to colder/cooler conditions looks likely then, and that's about the most you can say for the time being.
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Silly season has begun, it seems.
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Looks very similar to last November's update for DJF:
Que será será
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23 hours ago, Mixer 85 said:
Surprisingly, nuclear is apparently safer than renewables…..
Sort of...but that's talking about safety in the workplace, whereas Joe Public is more worried about Chernobyl 2. If a wind turbine collapses it's not going to spread radioactive material across the country.
Still, modern reactors are much safer, and so I'm pro-Nuclear, but we shouldn't put all our eggs in one basket. Wind, tidal, solar are all worth investing in. And Fusion could be viable by the end of this decade, which would be a complete game-changer.
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8 minutes ago, Raythan said:
Now that is a thread i would love to read , anyone got the model discussion bookmarked from winter 2010 by any chance ?
The Strat thread for Winter 09/10 is here, and might be of interest:
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Got down to -2C near me:
Marham (Norfolk) last 24 hours weather
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UKMarham last 24 hours weather including temperature, wind, visibility, humidity and atmospheric pressureBeautiful morning out walking the dog at 7am. Frost, low-level mist, and clear blue skies above. Who couldn't want that?
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4 minutes ago, knocker said:
Guest post: The Global Methane Pledge needs to go further to help limit warming to 1.5C
At the COP26 summit in Glasgow today, US president Joe Biden and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen officially launched the Global Methane Pledge.
Announced in September, the pledge asks countries to cut their methane emissions by 30% over 2020-30 and agree to stronger reporting standards. In his speech, Biden said “nine countries had signed on” in September, but “today, it’s over 80 and approaching 100 countries”. (US climate envoy John Kerry later clarified that “we’re up to 105”.)
As well as the US and EU nations, these include Indonesia, Canada, Brazil and the UK. In total, the number of countries signed up represents “nearly half the global methane emissions” and “70% of global GDP”, Biden noted.
According to the EU and US, delivering on the pledge “would reduce warming by at least 0.2C by 2050”. But can it deliver on this promise?
Global mitigation efforts have rightly focused on emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2). To prevent further warming, global CO2 emissions need to reach net-zero as quickly as possible. However, until net-zero CO2 is achieved we will see continued warming and increasingly devastating extreme weather.
As global warming is increasingly becoming a lived reality for the global population, attention is focusing on what the world can do to rapidly change the direction of travel and to limit global warming to as close to 1.5C as possible.
Using simple climate models known as “emulators”, we show that cutting methane can have a huge impact on limiting near-term warming, but global methane reductions of around 50% will likely be needed to realise the 0.2C saving.
Is there a list of who has signed up? I see no mention of China, India, or Russia there.
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Yes, the UK is doing OK-ish in terms of low-carbon electricity generation with wind-power dominating.
Dashboard
WWW.MYGRIDGB.CO.UKDisappointing to see a slight rise in 2021, but the 2030 target seems achievable. I suppose you can only look after your own back garden. As for everyone else...
Like others have said, I'm not sure how huge international showpiece events with useless non-binding agreements help. Good photo-ops for the politicians though.
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5 hours ago, North East Blizzard said:
Interesting forecast here, going for below average for the UK.
https://www.weer.nl/nieuws/2021/vroege-winterverwachting-koud-en-droog
"The best year of comparison for the run-up to winter is (don't be alarmed) 1962, when almost all factors that played a role in the weather were the same as they are now. The comparison year that follows is 2010."
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12 hours ago, Dancerwithwings said:
Interesting reading
Didn't old Joe Laminate Floor used to write these? He always used to go for crazy cold. Those were more entertaining. And wrong, alas.
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I'll never understand why there hasn't been an Apollo-style moonshot programme to fund and accelerate Fusion research. Despite the lack of funding, several important milestones have been passed recently, and we are getting ever closer to net energy gain. For example,
Major nuclear fusion milestone reached as ‘ignition’ triggered in a lab | Imperial News | Imperial College London
WWW.IMPERIAL.AC.UKIgnition is a key process that amplifies the energy output from nuclear fusion and could provide clean energy and answer some huge physics questions.It's a gamble, and it would be expensive, but so was Apollo, and the ROI would be enormous. I'm all for a multi-faceted approach to climate change with renewables, carbon capture etc, but it seems to me that only a truly great technological breakthrough is going to actually provide a real solution.
The US spends more annually on dog grooming than it does on Fusion research.
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18 hours ago, knocker said:
Stories of the Gulf Stream collapsing or drastically slowing dowm, thus impacting the climate of western Europe, are basically urban legend. Apart from anything else the earths spin would have to change.
Thanks for this: very interesting. I must confess I was in possession of the received wisdom that a conjectured sudden freshening of the North Atlantic from the Lake Agassiz flood was the instigator of the Younger Dryas period, but it seems that it is somewhat up for debate. The Broecker article referenced is interesting too:
http://ocp.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/gs/pubs/broecker_science.pdf
"Despite the flies in the flood ointment described above, my money remains on a flood of water stored in Lake Aggasiz.Otherwise, the confluence of dates for the cessation of the Big Stone Moraine overflow, the Moorhead low- stand, and the rise in à18O in the Gulf of Mexico would have to be attributed to coincidence. But our inability to identify the path taken by the flood is disconcerting."
A later article from the same author casts further doubt:
Anyway, don't want to derail the thread further.
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2 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:
With a slight correction north of the high pressure in the north Atlantic that could be a decent chart for December!
I don't really pay much attention to these monthly ensemble means at this range, but the problem there - as ever - is the above average pressure in Eastern Europe. How would the cold get here?
The November mean is ok though.
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Never mind MJO phases, ENSO forecasts or long range ensemble means: the Tesco delivery driver told me, apropos of nothing, that it was going to be the coldest winter in decades as he handed over my comestibles this evening.
So there’s that.
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Just catching up on the models. UKMO decent in the short term and ECM looking much better in its latter stages. Atrocious today, but some promise going forward. Looking forward to posting about weather rather than COVID.
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Had some thunder and lightning just now, to go with last night's.
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2 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:
Cheers for the link. So it seems the fossil evidence is questionable (many other interpretations for the findings that don't require life).
The interesting thing, at least according to the great filter ideas from the Fermi paradox, is if we find evidence for life on Mars it could be really bad sign for humanity. Even fossil evidence would indicate that the emergence of life is very common throughout the universe. If that's true, then given the age of the universe, we should see signs of intelligent life everywhere. Because we don't have evidence of intelligent life anywhere else, it means something is either deliberately wiping out other intelligent lifeforms, intelligent life naturally wipes itself out or the emergence of intelligence is a cosmically rare fluke and we really are alone. Two of those three possibilities would suggest that we don't have long left as a species.This is the 'Dark Forest' theory that's the basis for the Three-Body Problem trilogy of Sci-Fi novels by Cixin Liu. Essentially, it's a really, really bad idea to advertise your presence in the universe. We've been doing that inadvertently for about 100 years or so.
Anyway, it seems that simple cellular life can spring up reasonably easily, but complex life is much harder to achieve. And intelligent life capable of evolving to reason about the world around it has happened precisely once in the Earth's history, so that would seem to be extremely rare.
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11 minutes ago, Hotspur62 said:
That really is an amazing graphic if that came off.A large part of EA will have 20cms and some will have half a metre of snow!!dont think I have ever seen that before for anywhere south of the Midlands in 9 years of being on this forum.Even a cheeky red bit in Kent showing 40cms.Imagine if it comes off this place will go bananas!!
Which model and run is that? Can't read it in the image.
Autumn 2021 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Saturday’s storm looking really severe for the North. When was the last time we had gale force winds direct from a northerly?