Yarmy
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Posts posted by Yarmy
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Obviously attention is focused further out, but there still could be a few little bonus surprises at selected spots in the east on xmas morning:
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Promising output, but as seasoned members know all too well, if there’s a way for Blighty to avoid cold it’ll find it. Nonetheless, we appear to be some distance from the Glosea horror show forecasts of November.
Anyway, the split energy of the 2 depressions over the CONUS on the Tuesday 12z ECM has reappeared miraculously:
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Feels like the key to the 192-240 evolution is the clean separation of the energy over the CONUS in the 168-192 period. If the depression over the Midwest phases with the depression over Newfoundland then it would be curtains.
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36 minutes ago, Snow lover 2020 said:
The solar cycles are getting less and less.
And the temperature's going up and up.
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Still struggling to break 0C here, as have the past couple of days. Judging by the weather station reports, West Norfolk is the coldest spot in the UK outside the Scottish Highlands.
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Might squeak out an ice day. Still -2C at Marham, and no sign of the fog lifting.
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It's now been snowing here for 4 hours non-stop.
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7 minutes ago, SnowBorder said:
The last time I remember falling snow this early in the winter season was Dec 2012. The current models also have a similar look to Dec 2012.
January and March 2013 were both excellent winter months, and although I’m not expecting an exact repeat this winter, I am confident of a couple of decent cold and snowy spells. I think New Year or just after will be snowy.
Yep. Think that was also the time of 'THAT ECM'.
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After overnight rain, it is now snowing heavily here. At sea level, on the coast.
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Just to emphasise these early upstream differences, if you reside in New England and follow the GFS then Sunday morning is largely uneventful:
But, if you follow the ECM, it's time to batten down the hatches:
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10 minutes ago, Snow lover 2020 said:
No an SSW has been talked about last few days. Where have you been? Lol it develops end of December
This is what we have forecast at T330:
This is an SSW:
Besides, an SSW doesn't guarantee snow here anyway. If it did, we'd be buried every couple of years or so.
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19 minutes ago, Beanz said:
I don't think there is a connection between the MetO and BBC is there?
Not anymore (apart from weather warnings, I think?).
They put the services out to tender a year or so back, and awarded the contract to Meteogroup who promised they could give them hourly forecasts at 16 days out.
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26 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:
Easy to see where the clear skies are currently.
A chilly 4°C here but no fog yet.
-40C in Ely. Brrrrrr.
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Heavy fog here now. +2.5C.
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14 minutes ago, TSNWK said:
Warming I hope Blue? To help negate the inatiable coupling risk
Yep. Very early days though.
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3 hours ago, Paul_1978 said:
“Best power cuts”?
Quite. Best one I ever had was when the rest of the family were watching X-Factor.
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15 minutes ago, Paul said:
I suspect/hope the 12z will start on time and the 6z has been dropped. We'll find out in 10 minutes or so though.
Who remembers the Chinese model that used to roll out so slowly the actual weather arrived first? It was still wrong.
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Don't know what everyone's worried about. Looks alright to me:
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Surprised no-one has mentioned this morning's latter stage ECM which has switched to a -AO from yesterday's output:
Comparing T216 from this morning's run:
...with yesterday's 0z T240:
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3 hours ago, Nick L said:
I didn't realise the EU had actually voted to bin the clock change.
Cork won't see the sun rise in mid December until 9.40am as a result. Wow.
Get to see the New Year in twice if you live close to the border.
Assuming Boris hasn't closed it by then.
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16 hours ago, Earthshine said:
Wasn't far off last year, think it got to 18.7C in Scotland last December? Warmer than most of their summers aha.
Hurray for climate change! On the one hand there's the worldwide ecological catastrophe, but on the other we could get a very mild January.
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There was actually a brief spot that lasted a few hours on the 14th September that was counted by SIDC - but not Boulder - so breaking the streak in terms of their count. You can view it here:
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/aiahmi/
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1 hour ago, karyo said:
Yes, it is obvious from their posts that the spaceweather people are keen to see a busy sun.
Ham radio enthusiasts favour an active sun too, as it aids their hobby.
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13 minutes ago, Weather-history said:
How many have seen a green flash? I've seen a couple.
This was last evening
I haven't, but apparently it's not as rare as thought. There's a good explanation of why it happens in this book:
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Clouds-Glass-Beer-Simple-Bohren/dp/0486417387
Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Wash streamer here:
Might be marginal IMBY, but should be snow further inland.