[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

The high-res ICON-EU 15z (yes, there is such a thing) is advertising an organised band of snow to head SW from Lincs/EA through the Midlands on Sat Night/Sun Mon (this is not from the main band of frontal snow on the low).

 

So a surprise for some on Sunday morning?

 

 

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

8 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Same stuff, different day. When are people going to actually realise that the precipitation charts are hopeless!

Of course, they all are, and they won't pick up any detail of the showers coming off the North sea. But it doesn't change the fact that by pulling the low southeastwards, the models are reducing the area of the UK over which the northern flank snow extends on Sunday.

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

3 minutes ago, MKN said:

A lot will be looking for something sat night into sunday I think. After that not alot showing at this stage. 

Yes, plenty of interest there and then for the Midlands. Undoubtedly there will be showers of the North Sea too, but it's a long way from the runs of just a couple of days ago.

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

Just now, radiohead said:

On the 12Z ICON, less cold air is pushing in from the southwest about 24 hours earlier than on the 0Z run. Hoping for better from the UKMO and GFS.

It's a poor run all round, as Sunday is rapidly becoming a non-event for the vast majority of the country. 

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

2 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

ICON 12Z keeps the precipitation further south and east compared to the 06Z run:

Yes, as the low track keeps trending ever more southeastwards from run to run.

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

2 minutes ago, DAVE_ALLEN said:

Maybe its me... but that has mm, Kold.. Not cm ??

1mm precipitation = 1cm snow (approximately)

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

7 minutes ago, Nick F said:

06z EC showing a lot of snow for E Anglia and into the northern Home Counties as well as the NE by the end of the run / Monday morning

That's Ryan Maue's weather business, isn't it?  I'm not sure whether he's applying the Kuchera method to the raw ECM output, or that's what the model itself is predicting? 14.4 inches seems like...a lot.

[Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter]

11 minutes ago, YellowSnow said:

I think you’ll do much better being 65 miles inland, as anyone nearer the east coast will probably receive sleet or cold rain. 

Not with sub -10hPa temps and sub-zero dew points. Wet bulb temp, Theta-e, etc are all conducive to snow as well in coastal areas (eastern coastal areas, anyway).

 

I understand everyone's caution though. Been burned so many times, and this one is so close.

[Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter]

 Blimey, if these numbers are even close, Norfolk will come to a standstill.

So pretty much normal.

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

Wash streamer at T93 on the ICON:

 

It will change of course, but interesting to watch these features pop up.

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

15 minutes ago, Gonzolio Martinez said:

Is that 'That ECM' that people here refer to?

Yes, see:

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

Meteociel propose le modèle deterministe de ECMWF CEP

...and the model thread at the time:

 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

06z ec op against 00z ec op at T90/T96 (within the envelope or a concern ?) 

      

 

Hard to say, but looking at the ECM06z T72, it looks like the low to the East of Scotland does track SE thereafter at least. The important point is that there are big differences within 72 hours between the ECM 0z and ECM 6z, so anyone hoping for closure after the 12z runs is deluding themselves.

[Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter]

14 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I actually can't wait to see this afternoons 12z's. I hope there's a massive flip and ECM goes down the GFS route. I just want to see the reaction. Still the GFS 06z buries parts of Scotland with over a metre of snow, not a single flake down here. 

 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

Why bin the GFS for the Para when the former is verifying better in the 5-6 day range currently?

These stats jump around all the time. A week or so ago, the Para was verifying better (slightly). There's no objective reason to have any more confidence in it than the old one.

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

38 minutes ago, sundog said:

How many times in the past have we seen the gfs spot a trend run with it then ditch it and then go back to it again.  Hopefully this is one of those times .

 

 

14 minutes ago, Vadoseflame said:

Because it’s happened before.. GFS sniffs out first, ECM ukmo take a while to agree then gfs looses interest to only gain it again nearer the time

 

hopefully it’s the same situation!

 

 

 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

Just now, Captain Shortwave said:

Day 6 UKMO

similar set up towards the south east as the GFS. So probably an area of snow moving out of the continent into southern and east parts.

With a slider dessert for the southwest.

 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

A really nice ICON 12hrs run with that upstream trough disruption feeding energy into southern Europe and developing that low pressure over northern Italy .

How low pressure develops over Southern Europe is important in terms of both strengthening the flow into the UK, stopping any Med sourced air and in the case of the GFS 06 hrs run it ran too far north east  , it needs to head ene.

That allows the cold to head sw into the whole of the UK .

Such fine margins though. Southern Germany had balmy +12C 850hPa temps on the 0z. On the 12z, they get -16C. Different timeframes, but still... 

 

 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

17 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

It's about 2-3 millibars, less deep, I think we are starting to lose the plot with this micro analysis

Where are you getting the ECM 6z data from? I thought it was hidden behind paywalls.

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

9 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

What is GFS (P) verification like within 7 days?...still seems very knife edge stuff.

 

Actually improved since I last checked. But it's still a case of the ECM then everything else:

Day 6

Day 8

I'm not sure any of this really matters in the current situation though because, as you say, it's on a knife edge. Slight variations in the extent of the med ridge have big implications for the cold advection into the UK. 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

4 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Whose that? Someone who knows what they're talking about or?

 

 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

Just now, offerman said:

Okay thanks For that so why does UKMO( use a French site for their charts ) was it due to money cheaper option to go like a farm out type ? 
just to doublecheck UKMO

stands for United Kingdom Met office is that correct .

 

I thought they had their own super computers that can generate charts and everything like that I know they get good satellite images and use glosea 

so was just curious why they used to French 

. Thank you 

You've got it the wrong way round. UKMO isn't using Meteociel, Meteociel is downloading and publishing UKMO data.

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

9 minutes ago, offerman said:

Thanks loafer , 

but when I asked to get charts from the Metoffice and I asked for a link on other threads before to the Met office

The links that I was always given where to charts like these in French. 

Four example, A user just posted this as part of his post “ 

“UKMO going down the Dutch lp route after scooting the pressure system eastwards initially”  so am I correct that the UKMO means UK Met office?

if so when I’ve asked for the UKMO charts before I was always given links to French sites. 

so could you post me a link to the Met office charts please 

 

many thanks and apologies for being a bit dumb I just genuinely didn’t know

I can view GFS on this site with no problems suggest a link to the MOUK would be great thanks 

 

 

All the major weather centres (UK Met Office, ECMWF, NCEP, etc) publish their model output in a standardised format, usually either GRIB or NetCDF. Some of this data is free, some of it costs money (a *lot* of money).

Websites like Meteociel, Wetterzentrale, and Netweather download that data and then render it into charts for plebs like us to view. There are many, many other websites that do the same, but charge for it via subscriptions.

Meteociel and Wetterzentrale are popular here because they are free to use, and it's possible to compare model output from the various weather centres in a single chart format. 

 

[Model output discussion 24/01/21]

4 minutes ago, Jarrow Posh said:

And the Baltic in particular is far from Baltic!

I wouldn't advise going for a swim in it. It's only a couple of degrees above average. Any Easterly flow over that would be a snow machine for southern Scandinavia.

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

14 minutes ago, IDO said:

Although I would love to see that, the Para is not fit for consumption and I cannot see this coming on line as it would be a joke. We have been seeing those para boom charts for weeks! The latest verification:

It only beats the cfs and has some atrocious runs, a 0.1 and a 0.28. These are the sign of a failed model that needs some reprogramming. The current gfs is no world-beater but does not drop below 0.4 on any of the sampling. 

Great for morale but no one should be taking the Para seriously!

 

I've been watching the para stats for a while. These are my observations, so far:

1. It is consistently beating the old GFS up to day 6.

2. It is matching (and sometimes beating) the UKMO and GEM up to day 6.

3. It falls off a cliff after that. As you point out, it's dreadful past day 8.

4. It's still miles behind the ECM.

As can be seen, it currently second to the ECM at T144.

[Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year]

I've been looking for some public verification stats on the GFSP (the next version of the GFS set to go live in Feb 2021), but they are non-existent as far as I can tell.

Ryan Maue, however, was underwhelmed back in the summer: