Yarmy
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Posts posted by Yarmy
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11 minutes ago, jules216 said:
@sebastiaan1973 From August ENSO multimodel updates I reckon a week borderline moderate event is likely but I dont know weather QBO mess can be qualified as either westerly or easterly although higher up its looking like new westerly cycle will begin soon.Not easy to know what cards do we have coming in to cold season
How do the ENSO verification stats on those models stack up? The ECMWF doesn't appear to be interested in La Nina at all.
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Topped out at a balmy 13C today.
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50 minutes ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:
I wish climate change arrives quickly. So we get a proper summer instead of the boring cold windy wet insipid dross that plagues us each year. I do get annoyed when weather forecasters announce in June that the jet stream is usually far North. Reality is it is far far South and we are bombarded with unpleasantness.
This *is* climate change. In the past 2 years we have had extraordinary injections of heat into the UK. If you think rapid climate change will mean warm settled summers then you’re in for a shock.
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Arpege has a max of 36C in Norfolk on Wednesday which would be pushing the local record (made last year):
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40 minutes ago, General Cluster said:
An unpleasant piece of news for us over who've been hoping for a lovely refreshing NNE breeze, tomorrow... I've just watched the Met O's Saturday morning forecast -- there'll be that NE breeze alright... but with temps ranging from 32C, on the north Norfolk coast to 37C at London Heathrow!!!
Arpege and UKV have the North Norfolk coast maxing out at 20C tomorrow:
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Burning hot, but low humidity so not that uncomfortable indoors. There's a fairly stiff south-easterly breeze too. Fingers crossed for some pyrotechnics later, but I suspect I'm a little too east.
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The Arpege mentioned above has the sweet spot around about Heathrow at 4pm:
So 36C+ not out of the question somewhere according to that. Not much sign of a thundery breakdown anywhere as yet though.
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Betelgeuse – a giant with blemishes | Max-Planck-Gesellschaft
WWW.MPG.DEBetelgeuse, the bright star in the constellation of Orion, has been fascinating astronomers in the recent months because of its unusually strong decline in brightness. Scientists have been...
They think the dimming earlier this year was caused by a huge sunspot rather than dust.
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4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
CFS weekly update is out (image from Simon Lee) and shows northern blocking dominating through June. Doesn’t look great!
There were 6 consecutive months of -NAO last year from May-Oct followed by (of course, of course) 5 months of solid +NAO from Nov-Mar.
This April went negative again (May has yet to be updated).
Hmm.
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Despite the Northerly flow and below average temps advertised on the output, there still doesn't appear to be a great deal of precipitation in the outlook, especially in the East. May was the driest on record in the UK. The situation around here is getting desperate:
Drought fears grow as dry spell continues - Farmers Weekly
WWW.FWI.CO.UKGovernment representatives and farm leaders are to discuss drought measures as a lack of rain further damages harvest prospects across the country. Low-
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Can’t speak for the rest of the country, but round here it’s baked dry and the latest top dog ECM suggests little relief in the near future. If this carries on we will be in Californian mega drought territory come August.
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Well, the Moon belongs to America:
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On 24/04/2020 at 19:17, Daniel* said:
I keep seeing these kind of posts but to casual reader they’re meaningless I have no idea what they mean also can you put it as low, medium or high to make it more understandable. It really offers no insight to anyone copying what you see off website.
Solar flux is an excellent measure of solar activity:
There are 2 numbers: the observed and the adjusted.
The observed is the actual flux density hitting the Earth's atmosphere. If you are a ham radio enthusiast, then that's the number you are interested in (the higher the better).
The adjusted number accounts for the varying distance of the Earth from the Sun. If you are interested in comparing the solar activity in June with the solar activity in December, then you must use the adjusted value for it to make sense.
Anything around 70 or below indicates minimal solar activity.
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Anyway, I think sending out the cheque to everyone is actually a good idea: it's far more efficient than a tax cut. See here:
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10 minutes ago, jules216 said:
I work as main buyer of commodities from worldwide origins and also purchase many Chinese agriculture products, for example Pine Nuts or Goji Berries. We have always had terrible difficulties receiving product specifications from chinese suppliers. Goji berries have terrible pesticide problems and many European suppliers have to do additional testing. It was only matter of time that some more aggressive virus emerged from there. I would even go as far and say countries should seek some kind of reparation slash compensation from China because of this crisis.
Governments are going to have to borrow a lot of money. From memory, China owns something like 20% of all US debt? There are going to be some interesting questions asked when this all finally ends.
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7 minutes ago, matty007 said:
A walking petri dish.
It will go everywhere.I've heard a few stories about people being refused to allow to work from home, even though it's entirely practical (desk jobs with laptops, etc) and follows the government guidance. It's madness: if I were in that situation, I'd just tell them I had a cough and was self-isolating.
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Four players from the Brooklyn Nets have tested positive for COVID-19:
Kevin Durant among four Brooklyn Nets players with coronavirus - BBC Sport
WWW.BBC.CO.UKFour Brooklyn Nets players, including 2014 NBA Most Valuable Player Kevin Durant, test positive for coronavirus.The virus must be way more widespread than thought. As mentioned by others above, it renders the recorded cases figures almost meaningless until random testing in the general population is performed. You wouldn't even need to do that many to get a better idea. How can you plan for anything if you don't know what the real situation is?
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2 minutes ago, swebby said:
This on the bbc.
Iceland stores introduce elderly shopping hour
WWW.BBC.CO.UKThe move comes as supermarkets continue to limit the sales of certain products to avoid them selling out.That seems a really good idea (providing the store is cleaned etc before opening). Will reassure vulnerable groups that are anxious about mixing with people and do not have access to online shopping.
What an excellent idea. The other stores should follow suit.
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This is from a Doctor who posts on an NCFC website:
QuoteFriends on the Wrath......COVID means I may not be around for a while
I’m heading up COVID response at my Trust and as an anaesthetist things are going to get tough.
It’s fair to say my colleagues and those in ITU are more than a little scared.
Numbers of cases are increasing hugely.
We are going onto a war footing. Likely 12 hrs on 12 hrs off but working around the clock when sickness bites amongst us.
We all have the same concerns as others with families, relatives etc. I cannot see my parents for a while as are over 70 and co morbid.
I’m not at all convinced by the Boris approach and clinicians are ignoring certain advice and planning our own measures.
In terms of “we will build you ventilators” I can’t think of a single British company that makes them. Also a vent needs a trained nurse or doctor to look after the patient attached to it!
I’m not asking for applause or slaps on the back. But maybe think of me and my colleagues occasionally over next few weeks and months and send good vibes. Awful decisions will have to be made, all colleagues will get ill, some may die. None of us signed up for this really!!
On your side, most of you will get mild illness. Look after yourselves and each other, keep an eye on the elderly.
Wash hands, cough into your arm and leave me some f**king tissues and big roll!
Take care all
AndySomething to remember the next time some gobsh1te goes on about media hysteria.
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1 hour ago, John88B said:
Good news to see Trump tested negative and will be fighting fit to lead the US in their battle againt coronavirus.
Not sure whether you’re being serious or not. He first claimed it was a hoax and then claimed to have shut it down. He was shaking hands with everybody on Friday night. He’s a halfwit who says whatever comes into his head without regard to truth or even sense. Fortunately, it doesn’t really matter as he’s an irrelevance as far as this crisis goes.
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1 minute ago, ciel said:
Initially, I was broadly supportive of the government policy regarding this virus, but over the days such confidence has been undermined. For example, why is 10 Downing Street so out on a limb in their strategy (exceptional) compared with the rest of the world and their experts, who no doubt have as admirable CVs as our CMO and CSA. The simple messaging for the masses and reliance on modelling brings to mind the possibility that it is not the scientists pulling the strings.
I’m not sure it really matters as the institutions, bodies, and businesses have effectively all implemented their own lockdowns and measures anyway. It’s the same in the US.
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Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
One other ingredient to throw into the stew is the disappearance (for the time being, at least) of the infamous North Atlantic "cold blob":
The 90-day animation can be found here:
90-Day SST Anomaly Animation