Chris101

Seen a store bought version of this on a lot of U.S and Canada snow videos, so decided to make my own, think i'm being over optimistic lol

Thanks for the correction @Bricriu and @Daniel*, i always thought it had started just before. Cheers

The best resemblance i can make for the synoptics in this event is 2010, a nice SSW and the cold was seen well ahead and ran into us nice and smoothly with no watering down, since then yes we have had many awful failures, but none have had what we are seeing once again and this time its an SSW for the history books, will this lead to history making weather for us? I really don't know!!.............Gonna be fun watching though. I think sometimes 2010 made newcomers to this funny game we play, think that it was all so easy, when in reality its ruddy hard

Check it again and make sure there's not THAT one hiding in there somewhere.

I honestly don't think we have anything to worry about Bill, they will be very cautious on temps till after midweek i would say. I know people on here have been stung a few times over the last few years but at the end of the day we are just hobbyists and it really only lets us down, but when it goes pearshaped and the Bbc have told everyone they get loaded with criticism and blame, so going on the last 8 years they've probably taken enough stick to remain extremely cautious. Rest assured

I said earlier i thought the met had a cold health warning page, certainly be worth keeping an eye on over the coming weeks. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

Well the wife might be gone by the end of the week with the obsessive model watching as she likes to call it, so theres a chance you can come and see the East coast snow machine here.

I would think they'll have some kind of health warning for temps, a bit like summer heat warnings. As for red warnings, i think if things panned out as they show right now the probability would be quite high especially in streamer territory

Some generous looking waves running through Scotland at 168, were back to the whole of the UK (not that we actually left)

Northerners won't moan at the 06 Gfs, looking very nice for all so far, little wobbles as Essex Weather said at the start of the weekend, hopefully these woobles for the short term will even themselves out over the next 24-48 hours.

Was last seen checking GFS with the pope

Can't find it now but Essex Weathers post from yesterday mentioned that the Meto were seeing some wobbles from the ECM caused by a shortwave around Denmark/Norway sending the cold air more into C.Europe but stated it was still 70% to be UK bound. He also stated that Sunday was seen to be another wobble day and Mon/Tues would be starting to firm up more.

Should of been watching 2010, cold and snow went all the way from around 144/168 and then we watched it come all the way to 0z, things to me look like its just a matter of time.

Won't be long before you go to check the lampost, come back and see 5 new pages

Been in the Mod thread all day, Wow, all them toys and arguments its just so crazy in there

Lovely sunny day here, can hear the suns warmth expanding the roof tiles and gutters. Unfortunately i am stuck indoors designing a firework display for The Brits afterparty at the O2 next week, of which i could really do with a slight East/South Easterly on the day, is there any way of getting that sorted

Is that the shortwave dropping South at t81?

What run are you comparing it to? They are both the 12z

I think the CF must be pretty sure hes gonna get one up here on Ecm/Gfs, either that or he's retiring soon and doesn't give two hoots.

I'm really starting to think that a lot of us have spent a week screaming "cold delayed" "easterly pushed back" when in reality we may have missed it actually getting 24 hours closer every day. I find it quite strange over the last week that Meto have not seemingly taken a usual cards under the table approach and sat on the fence so to speak. The 19th is the date they have stuck to in their updates as has IF. Whichever models it is that have to jump ship as early as t96, i predict a SNW in the next 24 hours (Sudden Netweather Meltdown) and i have this inkling it will be in our favour.

Very happy to see such a good flip in outputs in a coldies favour, all this from as little as 24 hours of data from the actual reversal, its very possible that with another couple of days of data things could get even better timewise, i still think initialisation 18th but just maybe it might not want to hang around so long before heading to our North.

You can almost see that moment when the reversal winds smash it for six.

I still can't help looking at that GFS run and thinking that is what i'd be happy to see with an mjo hanging in 7 for a bit (mlb) and then eventually getting to 8 (hlb), i just dont yet see a record breaking ssw smashing the vortex to pieces, i would like to think that is yet to really be seen.

.......And then on to Belgium, a cracking flow that.

Another thing that puzzles me is that i was of the understanding that given timings the mjo forcing and ssw effects were not going to happen in tandem (the ssw would have to have been around a week or so earlier) so i would have expected to have seen the effects of the mjo forcing in outputs before ssw. Therefore is it at all possible given as at the same time the Ecm flipped it also killed the mjo to the circle that we are seeing the effects of another mjo fail and not the ssw. I couldn't imagine given the amazing amplitude of the mjo that even if there was no ssw it would have shown itself in outputs even if it did fail. It seems to be the consensus that what we were seeing in the outputs was the ssw. Please excuse me if i sound stupid this is my first year at trying to understand the teleconnections and mjo and add them to my model knowledgeTIA