Chris101

I have a good confident feel that come the end of February were all gonna be laughing at the chase and conversation over the next few days.

Went out for a drive to the shop and noticed that all the sugar beet fields around the village have had all their beet pulled in the last 24 hours (certainly none were done on Friday) and piled in long stretches down the sides of the fields. The farmer knows

.........and a nice warm blanket

If i remember correctly there was a lot of controversial brown envelopes being passed around that year Good to hear your doing well Tom.

Plenty of moisture out in the North Sea, lets hope the convection can really get going as it runs into our shores.

At the end of the day i think its peoples own faults for ramping themselves up, they look in the mod thread and see the buzz like last week going on, they have not a lot of idea what all the charts people are posting mean, they read only the bits that they want to see, and have no idea whatsoever about winter model chasing, i tend to call these people snow chasers. At the end of the day there is nothing wrong with snow chasers they want exactly the same outcome as the proper amateur meteorologist, they just tend to see the buzz and lead themselves up the garden path, and yes these tend to be the same people that when the models firm up on more detail come out with all the boring this is a load of rubbish posts. I don't see any of the more knowledgeable model enthusiasts coming out with the sulky let down posts, you tend to see as above they post charts and try and get this little winter chase underway.

I'll second what the guys above are saying, stay calm guys, and don't get too far ahead of realistic timeframes. We have had a clear example just this week of how models didn't want to entertain the idea of the cold this weekend, and yet here we are, i would not look much further than midweek at the moment, some very small pushes could mean a whole lot of difference.

Think your right there, streamers on a fax are marked with a dashed line if i remember correctly.

Morning all, very nippy out this way in the wind this morning, band of showers came through about an hour ago, certainly a wintry flavour in them, i would say an 80/20 rain/sleet mix. Models looking steady this morning to get the cold in, and i would say that shower potential for our corner is now just beginning to show itself better, as some pointed out it would, could be a very enjoyable week ahead for many across the UK and from an IMBY perspective i'm happy where i am.

Definitely yes, no matter what falls from the sky it is going to be bitterly cold for a good few days across the region, especially at night.

Gfs 06z still looking nice to get the cold in, my only dislike would be that the first disruption of the trough doesn't look as nice as i might have hoped, unlike last nights 18z it doesn't really drop South to bolster our low heights over Europe. Obviously this is just one run though and as far as i can see were doing just fine for now.

I've looked at charts now for a good 15 years and researched a number of good cold spells and its certainly a new one for me. Usually we may go into a cold spell with some ideas of outcomes in our minds looking at flows, depths etc, but with this one i see new territory.

Still a way to go but yourself and Tight have done very well so far on this one,nearly the biggest heist of winter so far. Top modelling

Going back to what i said earlier thats another 18z that follows previous 18's bringing in very cold uppers. What i'd love to start seeing now is some stonking Ecm runs with even better amplification than Gfs and then a meet in the middle during the next 5 days, i think if we could get that we'd be in a half decent position.

The only place i've seen any consistency in the Gfs over the last couple of days is in the 18's, the rest have been as others have said, all over the place. I know they have been very cold runs, but a usual watered down version would still bring the goods, i do like it when Gfs shows really deep uppers early on, it gives a bit of play. Anyway, i shall have a keen eye on tonights 18z and hope they have some resemblence to the last couple.

Ooh could you imagine the meltdown if we didn't get a UKMO output for a week or so.

Well a few hours of snow turned it all white for a bit, rain set in now, on to the next.

First signs of a few tiny flakes appearing now, Temp 0c Dp 0c.

Wifes bus has got her to work (Uk Power), seems she has got a busy day ahead of her locating pole numbers for engineers to go and hunt down.

Wife just left for work, shes seen a greenhouse laying in the path, got on the bus and didnt make it out the village and the bus is blocked by a large tree.

Starting to quieten down now, still some big gusts, but the worst is over.

Flashes have been going a good couple of hours here now, for miles all around, some pretty big ones that stay lit for a couple of seconds.

Can now hear strange whining sounds in the distance and the biggest gusts yet.

Constant roar in the house now, lots of bangs and crashes outside, the horizon across the fields to my NW keeps getting lit up with power flashes.

My biggest worry over the last few days has not been the modelling of the SW as this was always to far ahead to put much into. I've been consistently watching the Scandi/russian heights to our N and E. In the middle of the week these heights were playing a big part at blocking the PV from moving to much to our East and its strength was forcing things in a much better SE direction to give us much lower heights over Europe. Run by run up to now the blocks hold on the PV has become weaker and we see it heading in the wrong direction.