Chris101

Cheers for that chart, an enjoyable read. One things for sure, the myth of the winters of 80's and 90's doesn't seem to show itself. It would be a guarantee that if NW, models and good internet were around the same people would still be running round shouting "Wheres my snow","Another failed Easterly", "The winters of the 60's and 70's were so much better" etc.

That 20 page an hour discussion is on its way no doubt Still wonder if the next 96-120 may have some never saw that coming moments

Mmmm even more interest. Still seeing lots of weaker heights all around to our North, also models seem to have cut off heights from the pole getting into Greenland and yet to an extent they are still there, past experience keeps screaming at me that with such a nice looking Scandi still a maybe, the signals to me are good that this is where heights may head.

Surely the retrogression of the high NW over the days ahead has to be watched though, i'm in no way saying it will be enough but it'll be a good watch.

What gets my interest is the constant modeling of lots of areas of weak heights all around our North and Northeast, some don't even seem to be able to pinpoint where these heights are even coming from. With our now rather hated Scandi still on the board i still have high hopes for a big surprise. Ecm and Gem very early on had a fleeting glimpse of heights in a large area across our N/NE in the shape of a tantalising high and Easterly which was soon to disappear. That whole area is going to be fun to watch between now and the weekend.

Very true NS, as long as its up there all we can do is sit and watch how it behaves, however long that may be.

I don't see much mixing in of warmer air either, which the last slidergate had and still performed quite well.

Lol i new someone would see that. I think its a -12 over a -16

What i find really interesting is the extremely remote possibility looking at some recent 850 charts being put up of two cold airmasses from different directions (NW+ENE) colliding over the UK. Has this ever happened before? I only ever remember milder sliders that wrap a bit of cold round as they slide but also mix their milder air in from the southern flank

I said a couple of nights ago, as long as you have heights to the NE for such a lengthy timeframe models will be in turmoil trying to pin its movement down (unlike that more predictable thing to the SW) things can change very quickly from past experience. I also find it absolutely brilliant that we now have 2 camps building, getting colder conditions from different synoptics, Now c'mon..........We don't see that too often!! The next week or so could be some of the best model watching ever!!

I think the trouble with the TV is that they put it in rather sensational simplistic terms to catch the ear of Mr Simple eating his toast and heading out to the office. If KG were to come here to give us the detail of her comments she would say that right now there is a large (in her words) bomb cyclone affecting the Eastern U.S states, that huge low pressure is then in the models set to leave the Eastern seaboard and head towards the tip of Greenland. She would then go on to tell you that some models have been showing a Scandi block pushing cold air into the uk and those that have shown a good Scandi block have also shown the U.S trough running into the block and parts of it then sliding across the U.K Unfortunately Mr Simple would have no clue in hell what Kate was on about and her explanation that makes him raise an eyebrow towards the TV is absolutely hideous to us more knowledgable.

Haha like i say you might have to watch this move and tilt for a week or so, if it can get cut off at any point even better. Stay strong and stock up on coffee

Hey guys, i don't profess to being anywhere near as knowledgeable as many on here but i have twenty years behind me and always happy to learn more. I might add that i have probably learnt more from the many names on here from cold spells that haven't happened than the ones that have, so although i love a good snowfall i'm always just fine if it doesn't. Ok enough of that, i'm at a point now where i'm confident of a scandi high, i also know that scandi highs are beasts if they can get themselves together and until that high builds and the models start getting good data on it i'll stay of the firm belief that no model can tell us how big and what she will do. If as tonights GFS seems to think we can get the heights to stay there like a rock for a good lengthy timeframe, and thats a strong possibility, then i know it will be very hard for some of you but i'm more than happy to watch it for a week or more because i do know the longer it stays there it can move anywhere with 24 hours notice, and if by 192 it is still there it wont be exactly where the 18z says. We watch and we wait.

Is there some secret group where only the favoured members have the actual charts for next Wednesday, if so how do i get in?

Dare i say that Icelandic sw from 48-96 going over the top is a big spanner on the GFS, ECM makes hardly anything of it in that whole 48 hours.

Thought my local station at Wattisham had broken, no way 30 mph was waking me up, its now updated gusting 60mph, now that'll wake me up.

Portland 84mph St Catherines 70mph

GFS scandi is all over the place, its like a jelly on a plate, i swear it just never learns the strengths of a good block till last minute.

A great analysis there Catacol, good read for those learning. Unfortunately 2 posts later contradicts everything you wrote (to be ignored peeps) As it stands i see a confidence in a 4/5 day cold spell with fairly good potential for extensions.

The lake effect coming out of the Netherlands would be cracking with them 850's on the coast.

Nice post Surrey, would of taken me about 6 hours, i've used a pc for years but never get any quicker.

In the early hours 4-6am

Had we been on a N/NE then i would have probably said yes to a split, it is hard popping out for 20 mins and seeing 3 pages on my return (still fun reading though), but on this occasion i really feel the info from my S/SW will be needed tonight and the early hours

I think so to, a lot of moisture appearing in the train further North aswell, as the temps drop maybe?.

For the love of god,Please................NO more Southerly movements.