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Chris101

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Everything posted by Chris101

  1. Chris101
    That looks better position wise than i thought it would, i might not have to drive so far if that comes off.
  2. Chris101
    Definitely an MCS now, though that looks to miss the UK.
  3. Chris101
    I still like it, its great hearing a crack on the radio and then a few seconds later seeing it appear on there, you can even work out after a bit which cracks on the radio are coming from what storm by how loud they are.
  4. Chris101
    Agreed, tested it over the weekend with an AM radio and it doesn't show up anywhere near all the strikes.
  5. Chris101
    Yep still no worries here, we may just have to wait a little bit longer, Saturday into Sunday i would say, but that just gives me a little more time to get inland for Friday night into Saturday early hours, whatever happens i'll see something somewhere.
  6. Chris101
    I expect theres a lot of people on here with the anxiety, butterflies in the stomach, unfortunately not for the same reason as you guys, i can't understand why you both choose to come on a weather forum (i'm not telling you to leave us though) and building the anxiety up over a number of days rather than just have it come without knowing about it and getting through the few hours when its here, though i can see the idea of the more you know about whats coming may make things slightly easier to take. Its a tough choice i suppose, i just don't know if i could take 4/5 days of working myself up with worry especially if in the end it comes to nothing. Anyway best of luck over the next few days, and remember theres probably more chance of a bus load of fit ladies driving through your front wall than than being affected directly by a thunderstorm.
  7. Chris101
    Heathrow 24C @0850z Though i notice at 0920z it dropped back to 22c
  8. Chris101
    Thats probably because the plume is set to destabilise over the UK, it will more than likely start in France, but spread Northwards with more and more sferics breaking out along the line of the unstable plume, so theoretically the storms will be breaking out over the UK. (Hope that makes some sense)
  9. Chris101
    Thats what the latest ECM is saying, so i don't think hes being precise, he's saying it how the models are seeing it and GFS has swung towards the ECM now aswell, which is no surprise to me, it was pushing things through way too fast. IMO PJB is one of the best convective forecasters on any of the forums (not saying that NW doesn't have a few very good ones too) but i certainly wouldn't ever ignore his thoughts, with just over 24 hours till the first shortwave makes its move i would certainly be expecting things to be firming up now with regards to where and when.
  10. Chris101
    You don't want to be oversleeping, go to bed at 12.01 Sunday
  11. Chris101
    Thoughts of PJB on UKww, GFS has moved towards the ECM today, first trough Thursday night see's storms firing from Lyme bay Westwards. NOTE- Storms will NOT be routed aloft but will initialize from destabilisation of the 850 level. Friday night, strong destabilisation occurs and a greater than 50% chance of an MCS forming over N France and the Channel moving into CS England and parts of the SE, UKMO is slightly further East with this. Storms will initially be routed aloft but will merge with surface based convection on Saturday with further heavy thunderstorms breaking out. http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/104182-spanish-plume-for-18th19th/page__pid__906717__st__40#entry906717
  12. Chris101
    My partner works for UK power which covers East of a line from roughly Bognor to The Wash, they have just been given a warning of Heavy Thunderstorms with frequent lightning from 00.01 Saturday to 12.00 Sunday, preparations for staff coverage are well underway.
  13. Chris101
    ECM really limiting Thursday nights activity to the SW England and SW Wales and then a large destabilisation of the plume Friday night into Saturday for SE CS and Central England. Haha same here, but i could never say no to more.
  14. Chris101
    GFS looks way to fast at moving things through to be honest, thats not to say its wrong though ECM much slower and UKMO somewhere in between,i'd probably go for the somewhere in between.
  15. Chris101
    Totally agree, models and forecasts can give you some idea of where troughs will interact with the plume nearer the time and what sort of shape they will take, but any thunderstorm event is always going to be nowcasting to see whether a cell is going to hit your location, you could be right in the middle of a line of storms that moves across the country and still see nothing more than a 10 minute spell of heavy rain, and that will always be the case.
  16. Chris101
    Happy just to see another plume set up in the models, it means i get another week of good model watching to see how it all pans out. Fortunately i'm not one of the many that thinks because they see and hear that thunderstorms are forecast across the UK that its nailed on that they will get one, then start throwing their toys when they get nothing and others are getting hammered just 50 miles from them. One thing i can guarantee is that if there is a plume breakdown at the end of the week, not everyone in France will see a storm, not everyone in Benelux will see a storm, Holland or Germany either, and if it does evolve that the breakdown does come right across the UK then i'm afraid to say that even if it comes right across your region theres still a good chance you'll see nothing because thats the way storm cells work, they have large gaps between them. So before some of you start getting all over excited and telling all your friends the storms are coming, take a reality check, watch the models and listen to the knowledgeable thoughts of people on here and learn how these situations work. So heres to a great week of upcoming model watching and best of luck to you all
  17. Chris101
    Just sat in the garden and watched a cell build right over us, cloud moving in all directions as it grew, then the heavy convective rain started falling and 3 flashes of lightning and long rumbling thunder. Then another cell builds to my N/NW and another couple of rumbles come from that one.
  18. Chris101
    My profile pic is from my hotel in Santa Ponsa, Majorca, early September 2012 and all the locals were saying today is the day the heatwave since May will come to an end, Safe to say i had no interest in sitting by the pool that day, radar was on in the room and a top floor room gave me a great view when the beast came over the hills CGs coming down all around and hail the size of 50p pieces, best storm i've ever seen and we've booked the first 2 weeks of September this year.
  19. Chris101
    My favorite has to be, just one word. Netweather
  20. Chris101
    Heres one for discussion. How did this net get up there? Near Godalming Surrey
  21. Chris101
    A short video, of a lowering (possible wall cloud) of the storm that crossed Stowmarket at 1700, rotation was clearly seen which makes me sure this was a supercell.
  22. Chris101
    Decided rather late to intercept what i'm sure was a supercell that crossed the A14 at Stowmarket, i wanted to stay on the edge of it but after getting on a nice high spot it veered right and put me right in the core, lots of CG's and loud gunshot thunder, 5mm hail and torrential rain saw the car in 6 inches of water within 5 minutes.
  23. Chris101
    Post frontal troughing underway around here now, potential is there for something big in the next couple of hours.
  24. Chris101
    Still a chance of something post front if the right ingredients come together around here CA, keep them eyes out the window.
  25. Chris101
    I stopped watching tv forecasts years ago, they are rubbish, they use data that was given to them hours before, and in storm set ups that is just no good, they also cater for joe public and not enthusiasts and chasers. My advice would be to find yourself some good convective forecasters on the forums, and learn which ones to trust, they will probably teach you quite a bit aswell, so over the years you may even get to the stage where you can have a go yourself, myself, i'm not quite there yet but getting better.
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