[Model banter and emotions]

So in summary transient snow Birmingham northward….all rain or sleet south of that and no extensive northern blocking and finally ukmo model is now cannon fodder

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Ali1977 are we ignoring the ukmo and icon output then ? Not being funny just interested to know why gfs is trusted so much at 7 days. ….also feels like the snow line needs to be in northern Spain for it to verify at t0 for the south of the uk  !! 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, North Easterly Breeze said:

75 miles further north and I’m building the biggest snowman Essex has ever seen , all is not lost yet

Think this is it … if this misses recent history says that COULD be that for this winter for majority in terms of significant snow …been 2 or 3 really cold weeks over last few years and yielded zero snow in this neck of the woods ….. good luck and congrats to those who get it … Im not bitter honestly

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Extremely confusing on here at the moment …. Talk of a breakdown 7/8 days away is nuts the cold not even got here yet

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, steveinsussex said:

Its so surprising that the Met office were so adamant that this would effect us

I don’t think there were adamant …. I believe they were just warning us that if it did it would cause big disruption which i think is prudent…. The models were showing at the time … but hey Ho it’s the weather rather deflating it’s gone south but it is what it is …. We keep on the lookout for the next feature ….LP / Thames streamer … Pembroke dangler where ever you are really 

[Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

4 hours ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Major dumping of snow next week you watch, that low will sit and pivot over us!

Hope your right jay ….. the trend hasn’t been our friend today with it tracking further south than modelled yesterday we need to start to see that move back north a bit of the comming runs ….. think brum north can now be ruled out for this LP ….but SW still has a chance of course looks as though secondary Low may give us what we want just less perhaps ….. keep watching

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

I must have model paranoia…as on the cusp of a uk cold spell the trend for 5-7 day period seems to be for gfs to Come on board with it  and then ecm back away then ecm to back it then gfs to back away then gfs to cone back on Board ….it’s like an episode of the chuckle brothers ….. I fully expect a full guns blazing narnia pub run tonight !!! 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The only saving grace, is that this run is completely at odds with the teleconnections and professional forecasts.

Its in the bin for me.

Exactly it’s going to be massive outlier  

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

57 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

OMG this is getting very exciting .

What a lovely upgrade on the ECM 06 hrs run .

We see that nuisance high lobe over France suppressed and the shortwave looks like it will clear before the Atlantic low gets too close .

 

Please tell me you’re not on Cyprus Nick ! Right I am due to Book Tenerife today /tomorrow to go Saturday but don’t want to miss the snow I have a terrible dilemma only a coldy would understand …was hoping this was going to water down as usual but it’s ramping up ……help where I am it could still just be cold rain with snow m4 north….

[Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion]

4 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

Hammering down in Cwmbran ….how long is this going to last for??

All day

[Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion]

Crap loads inbound

 

 

[Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion]

comming down now just sticking to roads just her garden looks more impressive at this stage but says heavy snow all day until 6 or 7pm on met app so should have a good few cms by then ! Need it to cover now though whilst it at its coldest ….

[Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion]

 

make of that what you will …..I’d say it’s well wrong but there it is all the same as not the only hres model showing it

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

10 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

If this happens it’s a shutdown day for schools etc Thursday in many areas 

Nope, snow and grupal - see under date and time stamp. You can select all precip if you like 

So that says 40cm for my location cannot be correct there would Amber warning out by now surely ……odd

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

15 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Oosh 

 

17 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Oosh 

Including rain yeah Tim ?!

[Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion]

8 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Not sure the forecasts are up to date, you should do well in your location.

Yeah same forecast wales news gave at 1 pm out of date latest ecm big upgrade …expect forecasts from 10 pm to use that !

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

13 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

They would be still using out or date data no?

yes from this mornings ecm run ......10c and showing snow is plain nuts!

[Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion]

i have no clue what to expect tonight/tomorrow ...think rain thursday night/Friday defo on the menu then perhaps more snow saturday ....crazy situation all in all tbf

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

23 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Arpege has it snowing all day Thursday quite far south now all very exciting !!

30cm for my local nonsense surely ....as I think mentioned before this is total snow fall not settling? so prob get 5cm of wet slush nice to look at all the same

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Very early stages, but yes precipitation is further north tomorrow haha

00z attached to compare

intensity also seems to be increasing !

[Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks]

2 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Looking forward to the upgrade, expected in June 2023. 

Just hope it doesn't do a GFS and make it worse!

nope!

think you missed my point but thanks for drawing my attention to the met office update

[Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks]

28 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

MetO have just issue a weather warning for Midlands and E/A - Interesting!

no the warning is just for wales 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Just now, seabreeze86 said:

Going to be an absolute nightmare this week for the met office on where and when to put out the warnings.

They sure they got a lot more data at hand to make the call…tough one tho and time is ticking

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Snow depth next sat lunchtime (bucket load of salt )

I fancy you would need more than a bucket load to melt that lot 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

1 minute ago, mountsbaysnow said:

Just out of curiosity, wouldn't a more southerly track be more beneficial for West Cornwall? 

 

No these systems are going into France complete miss !

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I mean the next system looks like hammering somewhere - north England upwards at least 

Need that to hit the buffers …..snow to rain mush fest that