[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Mmm, not ideal and the next low looks like it’s bowl in with mild air!! Going south would normally be good, but I think it would just be a damp squib on this run!!

Next

Going to move north and south at this range …..however don’t want other subsequent models and runs keeping with a southern track trend that for sure

 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

Hopefully an outlier and will change next run. Front dissipates and it’s cold and dry for many by midweek 

uk snow shield on full power here

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

10 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

It's far too early to be able to answer that question. Snow typically is only forecastable 12-48hrs before it arrives, sometimes even within 12hrs can be tricky, let alone 5 days+.

However is certainly not a resounding 'NO' like a lot of the time

[Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion]

3 hours ago, andymusic said:

GFS 6z more of the same - cold winds from the east start everything off next weekend - then around 2nd March 2023 the snow starts coming - then an ARTIC blast like December 2010 - 100 YEAR EVENT - not likely - every 13 years now lol

Thanks for the updates Andy ......shame its all a bit out in FI..... especially ref snow detail ........ Encouraging non the less let see what occurs! also ref dec 2010 the fact this will be late winter/early spring suggests it wont be as potent for most....

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

5 minutes ago, snowray said:

Dear me, what a pile of tosh!

 

The walls are closing in on winter at a rate of knots ! 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

GEM is looking alright at 240!ahhh this is getting tiring now haha

240! 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

Just now, NewEra21 said:

If the other models begin to take steps towards the GFS, you just know the GFS will lose all interest in any cold spell now 

that would be somewhat logical giving the vast differences in the modelling we are currently seeing ..........but they must all look V similar a T72 SURELY ! another thing on my mind this GFS upgrade must be good at modelling at least some scenarios other models struggle with maybe this it that scenario! just rubbish at 80% of others  

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

22 minutes ago, Gowon said:

GEM is probably halfway solution

But if its moved to a half way solution at day 7 surely there is enough runs/time for to full on gfs solution ....of course the same can be true if we said it can still be a full on YUKMO solution i.e 0z

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

3 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:

 

How’s it straw clutching? This is the model discussion isn’t it? It was the GFS that picked up last Julys heatwave. And yes it’s been updated since but again what evidence do you have it’s 100% wrong?

I would say all the other models not supporting it and the fact its performed like this recently on its own  i.e mid dec 2022.......its not 100% evidence its wrong this time of course but its enough for me to be more than sceptical of its recent output! .....i would love for it to be correct but recent history for type of cold here not in its favour either

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

about as close as it gets on the EC op tonight ….feels like it’s putting us out of our misery early doors …not ready to call it another GFS horror show until we see a few more runs …..

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

It’s like a black hole. You can’t help being sucked in. Should know better but……..

Well we had extreme heat last summer perhaps extreme cold is on the cards this winter ….GFS is certainly providing some entertainment if nothing else …..

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Extraordinary from the GFS tonight, T186:

Just that nagging doubt there over the early differences with UKMO, but hey!

This will be the third time GFS has led us down the garden path this will be the biggest one of the Lot

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

33 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Very funny ! You should all be happy as since I got back from Cyprus it’s hardly rained in the UK ! 

I’m here to suffer with my fellow coldies ! 

I did sense a more interested input just recently ...makes sense now

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM 06 hrs control run highlights why you don’t want a solution that tries to combine the Euros and the GFS.

You either want the low southern Greenland to become quickly absorbed as it heads ne and ejecting shortwave energy cleanly se or you want that low to run east se and a decent gap to the upstream troughing .

wheres your money Nick ?

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

Better looking cold plunge on the ecm 0z v 12z and the coldest air further west at a slightly earlier time frame …..interesting times ahead one feels …..so nearly

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

Looking by the latest out output looks like any cold snowy weather will only possible post mid Feb …. But let’s not write off winter just yet many forces at play with each other and none of us truely understand…..

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

57 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Brown 

Ian Brown ….. Now, that's a name I've not heard in a long time…… A long time.

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

Is the main hunt officially on ….more runs needed…..

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

Any bets for a Greenland high on the GFS 18z ?

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

47 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS op sadly only  has the support of its imaginary friend this evening!

So zip support for that op from the other models .

Its performance is nothing short of comical …..why are we still taking about it ? Belongs with the navgem in the trash ….which is Shame

 

old habits die hard

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

16 minutes ago, Gowon said:

The ECM's finally coming out

Can’t see it being worth the wait given this afternoon other 12zs ….

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

This winter so far gets the thumbs up from me ….had at least 10 harsh frosts which is very favourable to recent years and seen falling snow ….yes no major snow event ….yet but if we do in last 4 or 5 weeks of winter I think 2023 will go down as a fairly memorable one personally ….charts still showing northern cold punches so there is hope down the road …all about perspective when you live in the uk in 21st century not Scandinavia…..

 

 

disclaimer : my perspective won’t stop me hunting for a 3 week deep freeze and multiple blizzard spell on the models …….

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

Yes its GFS at 220 but something to watch and hope for upgrades in the reliable ...looks short lived but if timed well could have a decent snow event.