goosey007
-
Posts
486 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by goosey007
-
-
subtle improvements on the ecm up to 168…..
-
1
-
-
6 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:
Feb 2009 was the UK's first major snowfall event since Feb 1991 so 18 years gap shows how hard it is to get snow in this country.
No way western uk had 30- 40cm in feb 1996 even here where I am near Newport more or less sea level had 20cm …..but yeah understand your point overall…
-
1
-
-
5 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:
We’ll be losing it
BFTP
Getting meaningful mid to longterm cold into the uk feels like the unsolvable Rubics cube at times …..but remember there’s no such thing …the hunt goes on
-
6
-
-
10 minutes ago, Relativistic said:
Not true, I remember that period very fondly.
CET values:
2012-01-29 1.3
2012-01-30 1.3
2012-01-31 -0.1
2012-02-01 0.6
2012-02-02 -1.2
2012-02-03 -2.2
2012-02-04 -2.8
2012-02-05 -0.2
2012-02-06 2.3
2012-02-07 1.0
2012-02-08 -2.3
2012-02-09 -1.1
2012-02-10 -0.6
2012-02-11 -2.7
2012-02-12 -0.2I understand the sentiments when we say the uk just missed out in 2012 as i can remember we were in with a chance of a blizzard of historic proportions but ended up just on the wrong side of marginal with very cold wind and rain in 2 degrees was the order of the day
-
2
-
-
Just now, mushymanrob said:
That point about the MJO was raised previously, i dont have historic MJO records to hand.
......... 1962/3, 1981/2 . There was a SSW in early December 81, at the same time the freeze started.
Its surprising how many cold spells were lacking a SSW (as the probable cause)rather encouraging I would say !
-
4
-
-
5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:
Interested to see how far the ECM is away from this evolution tonight
-
2
-
-
Just now, andymusic said:
Cold weather to continue - Met Office
? is this long term you mean
-
1 hour ago, nick sussex said:
The trop effect from a SSW does vary according to the base state of the AO at the onset .
In a nutshell the research suggested that the trop effects are enhanced if the AO is positive and the effect weakens as you move towards an already negative AO.
It does make sense if you think about it .
sorry Nick if I missed it but what is the projected state of play ref the AO at onset of SSW (if it occurs end of Jan) ?
assume positive reading matt H post......
cheers
-
1
-
-
Radar has it predicted to go south ........but seems to be travelling south east?
Spoiler
-
snowing lightly now in risca....
-
3
-
-
-
3 minutes ago, WelshSnow said:
I think South West wales will do alright but anywhere East of Swansea you can forget any accumulating snow.
You can already see them fizzling out over the beacons on the radar
I believe that was forecasted to occur until midnight …they will only make the south in the early hours …i guess we will only know for sure come 7am …..
-
4
-
-
2 minutes ago, WelshSnow said:
Going to be a lot of disappointment in here tomorrow for anyone living south of Merthyr, 99% of those showers will fizzle out over the mountains and Brecon beacons. There certainly won't be much snow for south wales sadly.
Not sure I agree 100% as ukv etc take into account local topography….where I do agree is that the heaviest showers will be in higher regions a few will get further south …..
-
2
-
-
15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
Exeter waffling about unsettled weather persisting,only drier weather in the SE..
I don't get it ,
None of the 00z runs showed this ???
they have too much conflicting information and mostly just go for the form horse in my opinion
-
4
-
1
-
-
here is the latest Harmonie snap shotted at 9am and 12am ......it a bit hit and miss but it looks accurate as far accumulations are concerned everything that falls with stick with the cold now entrenched so if you are lucky enough to catch a shower then a few cms are definitely possible .......especially up the valleys very much a now cast situation
-
indeed the beast is knocking at the door ahead of already colder air over the UK ....but at 10 days out needs to be taken with a pinch of salt at this stage ....although signals for a scandi high have been showing for a number of days now.....
-
2
-
2
-
-
-
28 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
A system tracking south on Wed might be the next chance for more widespread snow - not a lot though
Northern Spain doing well
-
6
-
-
13 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
A few ENS bring it more north, however I think it’s a sinking ship for anyone away from far SE
The way this system is moving about run to run I’d say if you draw a line from Swansea through Birmingham to east anglia all areas south of this still in with a chance …..I thought that before I saw the GEFS mean….
-
5
-
1
-
-
1 hour ago, keithlucky said:
Some back edge snow as LP moves south east across the UK,as colder air moves south Sunday night.
Snow risk charts are just a guide but does show favoured locations .Radar watching from Sunday night onwards.
Is this the latest ECM run Kieth ? Id bank that a few cms and everything white works for me ….but your right this is very much a radar watch from Sunday night to Wednesday some areas could do very well in wales
ps don’t post that chart in the mod thread there would be riots from the SE crew
-
3
-
-
fairly snowy run for gfs 12z so far especially for wales and the midlands
-
4
-
-
14 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
Ill take that to the bank !!.....ill ask for a receipt though
-
5
-
-
evening all ECM below and GFS mean still has snow potential for next week …. So no reason to be too disappointed we are not seeing the snow depths forecasted yesterday on the op runs up to this afternoons 12zs …..just got to hope something lands favourable for wales ….. happy if south east England misses out
-
5
-
1
-
-
7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
EC Mean for Tue morning - cold with snow event still in with a shout down south - hoping for a correction north with the precip over night!!
As a snow event hunter like yourself Ali really appreciating your updates keep the positivity going
-
3
-
1
-
Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Don’t mean to temper the mood but how often does a feb 2018 scenario occur these days 1 in 20 year ? Yes get lots of easterlies but not many huge low pressures march straight into it ! Perhaps it’s a new trend of course I’ll be happy
20cm here at 60 asl