goosey007
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Posts posted by goosey007
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8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
UKV fir next Tue doesn’t show and incoming snow event - hoping fir a change on its next run.
Bone dry
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4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
Certainly is mate - and in the semi reliable all these good runs - if not reliable. Let’s see what the professionals say today !! Things are getting exciting
From a selfish point of view hoping for slight corrections northwards for some the heaviest precipitation....however the opposite seems to be happening and its trending south on every model run as we get closer! anybody have any thoughts on where this could end up ? and is the GFS at all reliable at 4 days out lol
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Latest Ecm doesn't show day after tomorrow type snow depths and probably a more realistic outcome ...still showing a nice amount in southern england this could easily move north or south by 100miles quite easily ......stay tuned to the forecast!
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UKMET
amplification
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1 hour ago, andymusic said:
Went to London today, so been out of touch most of the day regards models, just caught up tonight, things looking very good for next week. Was driving back this afternoon along the M4 and met the front running west to east, some of you said you had thunder out of, well it hammered it down, very dangerous driving conditions for a while there, and also the temp dropped 5 degrees from 10 to 5 centigrade, nightmare conditions. Up in London at the excel exhibition centre to see the Jurassic World dinosaur animatronics, it was brilliant, with the finale of course being the T Rex attacking the tourists lol, something to see. Looks like the snow and cold is coming to Wales folks next week, 20 - 30cms could be some snowstorm.
My sister went up to that and said it was really good ….anyway storm due Monday night Tuesday morning looking at the latest ecm think there will be plenty of twists and turns to come but most models have it comming in Monday or Tuesday its marginal though expect likes of Newport Cardiff Swansea to struggle a bit on the coast but inland altitude i.e Cwmbran upwards and Caerphilly upwards should do well I.e 15 to 25 cm widely ….if it lands as modelled don’t take this as gospel at 5 days out though ….and pray for upgrades in uppers and Dew points !
south wales in the sweet spot as it stands …
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9 minutes ago, on the coast said:
ECM looking toasty later on. Quick thaw on the way for any laying snow.
Wow you managed to land all the snow and melt it all I nearly one sentence ….who needs the models
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8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
I like the sound of this cleaner !! There is a snow event on the ICON but it quickly flattens!! Hopefully some upgrades on the rest of the 12z’s, I don’t mind it going pear shaped later next week if we get a big snow event
Agreed all i look for these days is a big snow event .....long lasting deep cold and your just bound to be disappointed
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Latest Gem has my backing ….on a serious note plenty of twists and turns to come as always with uk snow and cold ……things are certainly more interesting the even 4 5 days ago! Have a good day all
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20 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
There are 30 ENS members, if the snow row says 17 then 17/30 are showing snow over whatever location is selected
So in Birmingham fir instance, 18/30 are showing snow early next week - which is a pretty good signal at this stage
Thanks Ali was hoping it was as simple as that !
so can I say the double digit snow rows showing for 3 consecutive days is an even greater signal ?!
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2 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:
Double digit snow row for the 1st time since December now showing on the 12z run!
Maybe some cause for optimism for this month.
Hi all great buzz in here tonight must be something brewing
….ps can anybody give me a brief overview of what a snow row is I get the higher the number the greater the chance but how does it correlate to the ensembles graph ? First year I think I have seen snow row mentioned unless I have been living in a cave
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56 minutes ago, johncam said:
The high last year was too far south for us and didn't get a frost out of it , was a dreadful period mild and cloudy would prefer current output as at least a chance of a PM shot
as always depends where you are in the uk i guess ...cold and sunny will take any day of the week over this wet damp dross
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1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:
Heights are building into North America at day 9, can these start heading towards Greenland giving us a more Northerly feed as the PV gets shunted to the Siberian side of the pole - or is the PV not in the mood to give ground
Fair play I admire your positive approach to looking for uk cold ......i guess it this way or despair! Just read an article on how warm and wet it is right across Europe particularly in the ski resorts ! 20c in Switzerland in JAN not good ! So it appears we are very much not alone this year....
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Well a very poor period of model watching it has to be said for cold lovers …just more January rain and mush ….last year in January high pressure cold dry and sunny was most welcome compared to this ……going by statistics jan has been poor for cold and snow in the uk over the last 30 years with the exception being 2013 so pinning my hopes on Feb !
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- Popular Post
7 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:Your posts seem to be very insightful and you are clearly very knowledgable however I think your posts would make more impact if they were a little clearer. K.
I enjoy reading your posts the way they are @tight isobar
brings untold character to the forum …..horses for courses and all that !
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10 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:
But it won't. ...
yes it will
we are due ! happy new year all health and happiness …keep the excellent forum going some excellent posters !!
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wow USA Canada insane weather ….lived in welland Ontario about 20 mins from buffalo until I was 8 I don’t think I’d need the urge to look for snow if I still lived there ….relatives that still live there said this year has been one of the worst they can remember for snow ! Any way this chart from gfs made me smile …..m4 cold/snow shield in full operation over uk …..merry Xmas eve all enjoy your day what ever you are doing ….
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Arrrragh!!!! Right feels like now is no better time for a model break …look at all this rain
..anyway we do have Xmas to look forward too let’s hope for a decent cold shot end of jan early February think thats the best we can hope for now …..but I guess we can never know ! Merry Christmas all have a good one and try not to worry too much about the weather !
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2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
Very funny !
The cold can stay away from here . Cold set ups in the UK often deliver lovely warm weather down here so that way UK coldies win and I win down here .
As you know I’m an ardent coldie when in the UK but here in Cyprus warm, sunny and dry is my hope.
Yes it’s commendable you are watching developments so closely for uk cold when your not in the country ! I cursed my luck when to Florida on 06th feb 2009 ! I was pig sick
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35 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
Think Cyprus may have a better chance ….tongue and cheek of course. I am still hoping for an Xmas period miracle
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5 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:
Any chance Scandinavia high anytime soon met office not backing away from cold yet.
It’s the uks safest route to cold and snow a la feb 96 all this Greenland stuff just too risky
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GFS still showing boxing day snow for south wales .......its been on and off all week I guess we will know if its possible thursday eve/Friday am models run all depends on that colder air getting south sooner!
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Just now, MJB said:
The term Zonal and in fact cold zonality has been used on more than one occasion on the beeb forecasts
Tells you everything you need to know
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8 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:
Haha it's awesome at 156
More twists and turns to come
Compelling viewing ….just don’t know what the models are going to throw up in the morning think this is craziest period of model viewing I’ve whitnessed maybe due to the fact that Xmas is is the mix ….also that 1927 temp comparison is nuts !
ps 20feet of snow in places in 1927 I’d take 5% of that !!!
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Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
GFS again continues with the trend of moving the heaviest precipitation south west with only the far far south west getting anything these 6 hour intervals are somewhat deceiving though especially at this range ..so all not lost for more widespread snow chances.....im sure if it was rain it be a direct hit however ! lol