Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

goosey007

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    486

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by goosey007

    Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by goosey007

    7 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

    This evenings runs are it really for the big day as we nudge towards the 7 day reliable mark. Can Santa save Christmas lol

    Agreed 7 days out I’ll go with what ever the 12zs say then close the book on Xmas …..then come back in few days and look for something inbetween Xmas and new year if there is anything to cling on to …..I have model fatigue official ! When the mrs  keeps asking what I’m staring at and doing on my phone all the time ….the Xmas shopping line is wearing thin 😂🙈

    • Like 6

    Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

    There’s too much of an ask now for tweaks here and there.

    Depends what are expectations are …. I would be happy with a decent snow event that stuck around for a few days …..I think that’s a realistic expectation looking at past winter of the past 30 years ….deep cold and multiple snow events that last two to three weeks is not so ….I am sure it will happen again one year but I’m refused to get stressed out looking for that ! The latest charts are telling me there’s a chance from 25/26th onwards ..all be it slim in my location …Scotland Ireland it’s all on …..

    Could contain: Plot, Chart, Nature, Outdoors, Sea, Water, Map, Atlas, Rainforest, Vegetation

    Could contain: Plot, Nature, Outdoors, Sea, Water, Map, Land, Atlas, Vegetation, Face

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by goosey007

    13 minutes ago, carinthian said:

    Yes, I tend to agree still all to play for...Now is the period the models will start to correction mode regarding the handling of next weeks potential of returning cold. Maybe latest ECM is first to show this process this morning. Next 48 hours is sure to be fun .

    C

    If by fun you mean extreme frustration …..ecstatic posts, toys from the pram and comments about 1962/3 re arriving ….and also not to forget the one liners writing everything off till next year …..I think your right C😂 

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by goosey007

    Probably what we should all have  expected giving the fact there is so much scatter from T120 …..a mild solution from its operational run from models run 4 times a day was always going to output at some point….yes we like some consistency and two gfs runs yesterday spoilt us …..however ECM now onto colder weather ….still all to play for ! 
     

    ps not sure any amount playing by us will influence the outcome as it will do what it wants but we can pray 🙏🏼 ❄️ 

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Clusters suggest this ruddy Euro High is going to happen now.

    Could have done without this really but I suppose we have to accept it isn't going to be cold every single day of December...

    Some kind of brief North westerly looks likely Mon and Tues but my money is on an unsettled phase with my eye on the period between Xmas and NY...

     

    Looks like the euro high has landed and knockout blow …. And NWS has thrown the Xmas towel in 

    Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by goosey007

    13 minutes ago, IDO said:

    Even at D4 there are BIG differences in the models. As per the 18z, the GFS merges the trough to our NE with the low, whilst the ECM builds a ridge between them and ejects a wedge subsequently:

    ECMCould contain: Plot, Chart, Nature, Outdoors GFSCould contain: Plot, Chart, Nature, Outdoors, Map, Person, Face, Head

    This means that the GFS shows:

    animxxl5.gif

    ...that low giving several days of snow. Whilst more settled on the ECM. Obviously we would like to see ECM move towards that, and to start with the GFS 06z showing similar.

    Was about to screen shot several images of this but you saved me with the animation thanks! so is this very unlikely  then giving no support from ecm etc ?  and the different result could not be more pronounced.....the gfs has been consistent with it as we have moved into the reliable time frame which is confusing would have expected it to back away by now!

    • Like 1

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    in Wales / Cymru weather discussion

    Posted

    20 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

    Ideally want those showers to arrive early hours to have any chance of snow.

    That's for the 20th mate it's the 10th today lol. I guess so, just always a let down with these charts.

    That’s the totals after the storm has passed through …..it’s starts on Sunday 18th according to lastest ecm …..be gone next run so like you say nothing to stress about at this stage …..

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    This is as close as the low / precip gets to the south ….

    Could contain: Plot, Chart, Vegetation, Plant, Map, Outdoors, Nature, Atlas, Rainforest, Tree

    So what we thinking then guys ….this low only going to go lower into France or any chance of corrections north …I’m up for high risk reward….a long shot now so it seems. Hard to get too excited with this cold spell without any snow chance presenting themselves on the charts/models ….it’s like going to the beach and there’s no sand …….that’s what we are al chasing right to buried in snow ❄️? Or do we just want extended cold ice days ? Been a little confused reading this thread recently …if we are no careful this cold spell can come a go with no significant snow hence a period to forget ……hope not !!!!

    • Like 2
×
×
  • Create New...