goosey007
-
Posts
486 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by goosey007
-
-
9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
Yup , don't bother looking at icon it's bad
ICON is bad though .....so I see it as a positive as its never correct flipping a flopping outrageously
-
1
-
-
- Popular Post
28 minutes ago, Cambrian said:Before the 12z’s begin a-rolling in, the 0z ECM ensemble mean actually pulls the whole of the UK and Ireland under a northwesterly, fashioned locally from a northerly flow all the way straight down from the Arctic, by midday on Christmas Day, which is looking like the transition day to the polar air mass, with some very decent uppers flooding south. A great trend.
These are loops from the beginning of Christmas Eve to the end of Boxing Day. Clearly plenty of moisture and precipitation about too, indeed the precipitation mean even appears to pick up on the Boxing Day slider. Even with all the marginality, somebody here, wishing for snow, is very likely to get lucky.
Between the lines, the models evidently know full well the importance of the time of year to so many of us and have spent a lot of time and effort in preparing a big surprise for us this year, so let’s be very grateful.
The setup is just so much more promising than it usually is heading into Christmas, some very cold air never more than an Arctic sneeze away. So no more putting these models down, they are trying their level best to be very kind to as many of us as they possibly can be.
Joking aside, the pattern, and its timing, is clearly providing an enormous challenge to the modelling systems, but all the same, it’s truly fascinating watching this kind of knife-edge setup develop and unfold, aided by such great technology, and with the expertise and camaraderie found here. Heck, all we had when we were kids (not that long ago) was the BBC, so three cheers for the combined marvels of the World Wide Web and the Numerical Weather Prediction models - Hip, hip….
No way I was blessed with ceefax .....i remember watching it in Feb 06th 1996 saying persistent snow ....that was it lol
sorry Mods!
obvs dont have the feb 1996 screen shot ....rain spreading from the west sounds familiar lol
-
12
-
6 minutes ago, E17boy said:
All looks good if we are in dreamland. But in all honesty in reality I don’t think this is how it will look and that’s being really honest to stop any heartache after.
Sad to say ....but is very true the fact its less than 7 days away would normally give you some hope but the way the models are performing it will likely be gone in the next run .....
-
2
-
-
Christmas weekend looks set for mostly mild going by this final run of the day …..but 27th onwards still on !!! if not for the euro heights it was all on !
-
1 minute ago, goosey007 said:
come on keep it comming !
In reverse
-
come on keep it comming !
-
11 minutes ago, snowbob said:
I hope your right mate
always loved gfs
praying the 18z is consistent with todays runs.
do you have a link
Put on the met/bbc forum for you
-
2
-
-
-
52 minutes ago, snowbob said:
That’s a brave call with the way the models are behaving
could go anyway at the minute
not a done deal yet
No take a peak at Alex Deakins met forcast fir. Xmas week today give a good concise overview of the forces at hand over North America makes me think the GFS may have this nailed down ….we will surely see ….
-
3
-
1
-
-
5 minutes ago, snowbob said:
If I remember correctly.
and I’m sure someone will correct me if I’m wrong,
wasn’t this the other way round last year
ecm was modelled to give us some cold for after Xmas and gfs was having none of it.
I seem to remember as I had my mum last year for Xmas and was worried about getting her to my sisters on 27th
maybe I’ve jumbled a year or two
But I’m sure this was the case
if I am corect ecm failed big time
just saying could be failing now to
Defo pointing that way around 7 to 10 days before Xmas last year …..but can’t remember who was first to sniff out the eventual outcome …..
-
1
-
-
2 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:
Just looked this up - wow, that is a brutal angle of attack.
Delivered big snow in south wales and many other areas that’s why i know that particular month year ….
-
3
-
-
Just now, CreweCold said:
It's a possibility for sure and not something I'd turn my nose up at. However if we're to get that we cannot afford such interference from European heights...they will need to be supressed.
Jan 1984?
-
-
6 minutes ago, ITSY said:
Yes if GFS pulls this off i think we will have a new King anoited in this Forum at least ! But if it comes up short not sure many will forgive it and be banised to the cannon fodder models land a la navgem......the stakes are high!!!
-
2
-
-
jff but m4 snow shield in full effect
Shields Down !!!! ....24/36 snow event ...if only
-
5
-
-
-
1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:
If it’s shown on a run / ensemble then it’s possible …perhaps one day… unlikely but possible.
Yes that’s probably the better question i.e likelihood of it happening ….tough to put a number or phrase for it at any given time = 5%?
-
17 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:
If you have 30 runs in a suite and half or 3 quarters go milder or colder how could you say they would be a waste of time? You need ensemble agreement to make a more solid and accurate forecast.
Can you imagine how many times a forecast would be changed daily if we only had the det run to use?
The bigger picture is complex and for me that's why we are seeing so many alternating runs.
We always need ensemble agreement when making a more rounded forecast,especially beyond that critical 7 day period.
Put it this way if all the det runs were going cold now,but the ens were not backing them up....I can guarantee you many on here would be saying...im not having it until there's ensemble support! But it appears some seem more convinced when it's a milder outlook they're showing.
Yes not saying they are a waste of time and understand the forecast logic …. Just confused why so many consecutive runs where the op is the outlier and your last few sentences add to my confusion as you say people seem to be taking the op as gospel …….
-
18 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:
It's Sunday and I'm a tad confused...some of the posts claiming its poor moving forward,while others claim its looking better!
Ecm ens look better than this time yesterday with a fair chunk of colder runs.
And while some on here are saying things could go down the pan into January....we have the met talking of greater chance of cold spells!
Welcome to the British weather where man or beast do not seem to have a scooby in what direction we are actually heading.
Go and get the decorations up and ease some stress
Any ideas why the op has been an outlier to varying degrees over the past few days ….surely if it’s correct and that much more accurate it’s ensembles are a waste of time
-
4
-
-
The tide is turning in our favour …. Come on ecm get in the festive spirit !!!
-
1
-
-
3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:
The short ones @london WOW
wasn’t expecting that... we have belly flopping again here !!!! 
What’s the Op up to though !!!!!
-
3
-
-
-
Just now, January Snowstorm said:
Yes being a real Xmas grinch ! Can’t even humour us slightly ….I am praying for a scandi high to suddenly pop up on the models ….
and the slug to do one I don’t want much for crimbo
-
2
-
-
4 minutes ago, KTtom said:
Blimey when your luck is out..Atlantic profile like this and we end up with a southerly
Makes no Sense to me
-
1
-
.png.9c17cae911a2b19ce3576f7f98105f8f.png)
Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Never a dull moment same every year ….you will never stop the out pouring of emotion in this thread ….high stakes and general frustration most of the time …..but you have the right attitude what will be will be….the latest runs have given me hope Boxing Day and slightly beyond may deliver a snow event although not expecting it.