goosey007

Most of the accumulations are minimal bar Thursday.....metcheck graphics can be a bit misleading ....

Yes it is check this out ...hope the trend westward continues closer to the event

The Low that keeps on giving ...just hanging around four hours!!!!

Snow looks a shade further west on 12z Gfs covering larger part of the country....!!

Definitely was but it was timed perfectly though and low travelling south east bumped into the cold air moving west.........no such luck this time initially. Next week though longer cold spell this one with more bites of the cherry

yes different models are hinting at different things over the weekend .....tonight ecm should give us better clue....

thats the only thing Jay .... high risk high reward ..but could easily go pete tong and snow to rain event..think we all want to see snow thats sticks around for a few days .....off the roads of course

they will come tomorrow if anything ....its less likely yo effect wales as yet ...be yellow at best. ....but real chance of orange and maybe even red towards middle to end of next if some of ecm projections come off

well if you cant ramp now you never will .....probably a number of years before we see the likes of this again ....IF is happens of course!

GFS only came fully on board 24 hrs ago or so...think its still playing a bit of catch up. Not really performed that well for this upcoming cold spell all things considered .....to see it 10 days out then to drop it at day 6 when the others come of board is not really acceptable to have any great confidence in it currently. Much rather what the ECM did and pick it up at day 6 and stick with it. Overall ECM has proven again to be king model in my mind. UKMO deserves a mention as well very good performance in this particular scenario.

Agree Tim at T48/36 found it to be fairly accurate it said 7cm for me on 22nd Jan on 24th I had exactly that .not always that accurate but I can only say as I found it last time out. Obvs the amounts we are seeing now for a weeks time is based soley on that outcome happening it will change 10/15 times before then...so really JFF and an idea of what coudl happen.

Yeah sorry KK breakdown was wrong word .....I should have said or meant to say attempted breakdown ......stalling front basically. Ecm shows this at perhaps a worst case scenario and it is an outlier in terms of snow amounts but just goes to show what is on teh table for next week. Exciting times for a cold weather nerd like me lol

Ill see your 32 and raise you to 46 ! These are JFF at this range of course ......but i do think a snowy breakdown will very much be on the cards with 10-15cm widely at some point from Wednesday onwards........although never certain. a few organised bands of snow can pop up from saturday night just about anywhere that may give a few cms .....but dry and very cold is the theme for us to kick things off......enjoy whats coming all.

WHAT only a foot of snow for me in south east wales......love it when so many of us are in the game. Everybody is so positive ....i do spare a thought for those in the far south west.

Yes our only chance is to get the cold well established and then Atlantic tries but fails and stalls over the west......first few days likely to be just dry and really cold in the west looking at it.

looks like a pretty dry start for wales into next next week despite the frigid temperatures ..no snow ....have to see what develops as we move though week....please correct me if i am wrong someone!

Jff Kentspur .....seen so many this winter......i will say it's the closest yet at day 7

Icon good for me ...imby

Feels like this could easily be 7 to 10 day very cold/to cold spell...with all seeing snow at some point.....even if not initially.

half way house suits wales .......im not selfish though happy for the gfs to show a full blown easterly ....

sounds like David against Goliath ...we know how that turned out

members were moaning about the ECM as it wasnt on board with cold ......hence the disappointment but generally not saying its a useless model ....most agree ECM is the king model for this neck of the woods. I concede there always one or two who fit into the category you suggest...such is life

just the 0z and 12z this model .....6am & 6pm

sounds about right this place will go into full blown meltdown

couldn't agree more......big 12z one feels ....Ill say if UKMO and ecm remain unchanged then we have our easterly what ever the poxy GFS is showing on the 12z runs