goosey007

SIMPLE MODELS UNDERESTIMATING THE FORCE OF THE BLOCK !! COME ON UKMO I JUST KNEW YOU HAD IT IN YOU! well it isnt simple its exhausting run to run!....broken the golden rule....ive told my family we are on for a white exmas need this to land!!!! will take boxing day however!

snow bomb dropping 1/2 an inch every hour............epic failure at hyperbole!

Just occurred to me that large areas of Germany are in line for a white xmas

I think nobody including me is taking into account the M4 snow shield ........this above everything else worries me! ........GFS 06Z had it nailed!

WTF keep edging south baby ! new trend I hope!!!!! this has to be up there with the one of maddest chases for cold ever !!

WOW this is shocking performance from this model at a time we need it to show it credentials ! how anybody can champion this model in this type scenario that much more over the rest should reflect.......no better than the rest from what I can interpret......having said that I will say I am most disappointed in the UKMO output over night ....that now has me siding on the side of mild for at least Birmingham south over xmas, which would be a massive disappointment giving the prospects friday & Saturdays output gave. hey ho the reality is I have not had a white xmas period for 32 years (excluding some lying snow in 2010) so one more wont hurt! on to the 12zs last chance saloon i feel ....surely cross model agreement will arrive at some point today? good luck to anybody north of brum your still most definitely in the game! cheers

Evening all .... just dont think the models got the full view of this yet ....UKMO and JMA and mogreps in the cold corner v rest in the mild corner .......call me crazy call me insane but not having this is over with these synoptics ....if it was any other models than the jma and ukmo (both island countries models) I might not be typing this.....obviously the rot has to stop in the next 24hours and more favorable outlook by tomorrow 12zs .....Happy Xmas week all !

Agreed UKMO has been more consistent where as the gfs is all over the shop from run to run....UKMO has got this...sticking my neck on the block

Yes understand what your saying not saying that's all I ever read....just when it's so busy on here with so many different emotions /experiences /models showing lots of different potential outcomes a summary is good to sort the wheat from the chaff so to speak.....Great posting from the usual crowd ....

Agree totally Mr Malarky can you summarise every morning at 9 for next few days please would save me an hour of pain trying to work it all out by the posts ....had it all this morning GEM narnia to posts about Xmas cold cancelled forever .....however reading between the lines snow is comming come on !!!!!

Great update/overview.......

Drama continues non the wiser after this latest gfs run .....(for xmas period) time for a break!!!

gfs going bowling with uncle buck!

yes circa 100 miles!

thats surface temps also.....all way into FI....not concerned

yes poor run overall for the xmas period ..chance of some leading edge snow up north ....but heavy rain for the majority ! ECM over to you ! please be good!

Hi all..... been an interesting few days model watching that's for sure cant ever the stakes being higher with xmas freeze on the cards ......no doubt the emotional torment alot seem to going through run to run is exhausting to read but understandable to a degree as I get the same feeling of inevitability when a cobra run turns into a tiny british grass snake next time round! .....But choose not to post it as undertand its very confusing to new posters etc..........NWS and a few other more grounded posters sum it up well .......the building blocks for cold are there for uk lets hope we can enjoy the evolution over the next few days that's get some snow in for all over the holiday period...nothing more magical than that especially those with children ......but as always the weather will do what it wants! latest GFS a near miss for snow to approach form the south west but again 7/8 days out so loooooads of time yet ...i have a feeling we are for some fun we are due one that all I know !! cold streaming south though!

Although met says heavy snow from 2pm ? nothing before

Awesome for them ! Lightly snowing in near risca

looks as though a dusting may be only thing achievable tomorrow ......i have had it with the forecasts now just going to look out the window tomorrow

well forecast for my location on no snow could be correct as theres a ring of no snow on the graphic lol

5cm an hour more or less over us in this chart jay lol...cant see that being correct lol ps if there is any substance to it met office warnings should tell at 11am today!

hopefully we continue to see upgrades through the next 12/24 hours ....:-) been up and down this one! looks like 2-4 cm across majority of wales at the moment

Ecm was spot on the 24th so who knows ?

they dont use the ecm like the bbc .......not sure what they use tbh. Watch the bbc weather after 10 tonight or tomorrow morning they will show it !