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Everything posted by goosey007
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Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
goosey007 replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Never a dull moment same every year ….you will never stop the out pouring of emotion in this thread ….high stakes and general frustration most of the time …..but you have the right attitude what will be will be….the latest runs have given me hope Boxing Day and slightly beyond may deliver a snow event although not expecting it. -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
goosey007 replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ICON is bad though .....so I see it as a positive as its never correct flipping a flopping outrageously -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
goosey007 replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
No way I was blessed with ceefax .....i remember watching it in Feb 06th 1996 saying persistent snow ....that was it lol sorry Mods! obvs dont have the feb 1996 screen shot ....rain spreading from the west sounds familiar lol -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
goosey007 replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Sad to say ....but is very true the fact its less than 7 days away would normally give you some hope but the way the models are performing it will likely be gone in the next run ..... -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
goosey007 replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Christmas weekend looks set for mostly mild going by this final run of the day …..but 27th onwards still on !!! if not for the euro heights it was all on ! -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
goosey007 replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
goosey007 replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
goosey007 replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Put on the met/bbc forum for you -
Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks
goosey007 replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
goosey007 replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
No take a peak at Alex Deakins met forcast fir. Xmas week today give a good concise overview of the forces at hand over North America makes me think the GFS may have this nailed down ….we will surely see …. -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
goosey007 replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Defo pointing that way around 7 to 10 days before Xmas last year …..but can’t remember who was first to sniff out the eventual outcome ….. -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
goosey007 replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Delivered big snow in south wales and many other areas that’s why i know that particular month year …. -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
goosey007 replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Jan 1984? -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
goosey007 replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yeah the trend dosent appear to be our friend now gfs basically on its own ….be a miracle if it’s right now ….certainly for Xmas period ….but 27th onwards still to play for IMO…..wait matts mogreps post adds to the uncertainty can’t take much more of this -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
goosey007 replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes if GFS pulls this off i think we will have a new King anoited in this Forum at least ! But if it comes up short not sure many will forgive it and be banised to the cannon fodder models land a la navgem......the stakes are high!!! -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
goosey007 replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
goosey007 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Steady as she goes on gfs 18z something seriously wrong somewhere ….. ecm op massive outlier still on its op gfs op has its ensembles in tow …..what do you forecast ? -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
goosey007 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes that’s probably the better question i.e likelihood of it happening ….tough to put a number or phrase for it at any given time = 5%? -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
goosey007 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes not saying they are a waste of time and understand the forecast logic …. Just confused why so many consecutive runs where the op is the outlier and your last few sentences add to my confusion as you say people seem to be taking the op as gospel ……. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
goosey007 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Any ideas why the op has been an outlier to varying degrees over the past few days ….surely if it’s correct and that much more accurate it’s ensembles are a waste of time -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
goosey007 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The tide is turning in our favour …. Come on ecm get in the festive spirit !!! -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
goosey007 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
What’s the Op up to though !!!!! -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
goosey007 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM op was outlier ! Keep the faith TSNWK -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
goosey007 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes being a real Xmas grinch ! Can’t even humour us slightly ….I am praying for a scandi high to suddenly pop up on the models …. and the slug to do one I don’t want much for crimbo -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
goosey007 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Makes no Sense to me