goosey007

Agreed 7 days out I’ll go with what ever the 12zs say then close the book on Xmas …..then come back in few days and look for something inbetween Xmas and new year if there is anything to cling on to …..I have model fatigue official ! When the mrs keeps asking what I’m staring at and doing on my phone all the time ….the Xmas shopping line is wearing thin

Depends what are expectations are …. I would be happy with a decent snow event that stuck around for a few days …..I think that’s a realistic expectation looking at past winter of the past 30 years ….deep cold and multiple snow events that last two to three weeks is not so ….I am sure it will happen again one year but I’m refused to get stressed out looking for that ! The latest charts are telling me there’s a chance from 25/26th onwards ..all be it slim in my location …Scotland Ireland it’s all on …..

This week was always looking more likely to be mild up to Friday ….Christmas and beyond still not dead in the water as yet but chances are it will be soon ..but I am still hoping for a Xmas miracle

Christmas day ice bowl anyone......BANK

Chalk a cheese 0z and 6z

Knife edge stuff with the phasing.........but back to were were with GFS

If by fun you mean extreme frustration …..ecstatic posts, toys from the pram and comments about 1962/3 re arriving ….and also not to forget the one liners writing everything off till next year …..I think your right C

Probably what we should all have expected giving the fact there is so much scatter from T120 …..a mild solution from its operational run from models run 4 times a day was always going to output at some point….yes we like some consistency and two gfs runs yesterday spoilt us …..however ECM now onto colder weather ….still all to play for ! ps not sure any amount playing by us will influence the outcome as it will do what it wants but we can pray

Looks good so far snow on the charts always works for me

Snow showers packed up moving across UK great to see ....but the GFS is flopping around like a fish out of water cant be trusted! Need ECM to show us something on the same lines......

Looks like the euro high has landed and knockout blow …. And NWS has thrown the Xmas towel in

Was about to screen shot several images of this but you saved me with the animation thanks! so is this very unlikely then giving no support from ecm etc ? and the different result could not be more pronounced.....the gfs has been consistent with it as we have moved into the reliable time frame which is confusing would have expected it to back away by now!

That’s the totals after the storm has passed through …..it’s starts on Sunday 18th according to lastest ecm …..be gone next run so like you say nothing to stress about at this stage …..

8 days and is Caerphilly not north of the M4 jay ?

January 1984 style for south wales if this came off ….. of course JFF corrections of 100s miles likely at this range…..but it’s in line with the mets update …..something to keep an eye on on but if I’m honest with myself it will probably be gone on the next run ….

A 100 mile correction eitherway i guess is more than feasible at this range for sure

Afternoon all another winter arrives …..had Hard frosts last few mornings here in Rodgerstone/Risca area like most …..frustrating cold spell at the moment without any snow or anything substantial in the forecast….things can appear last minute I know so keeping fingers crossed something materialises during the next week …….

So what we thinking then guys ….this low only going to go lower into France or any chance of corrections north …I’m up for high risk reward….a long shot now so it seems. Hard to get too excited with this cold spell without any snow chance presenting themselves on the charts/models ….it’s like going to the beach and there’s no sand …….that’s what we are al chasing right to buried in snow ? Or do we just want extended cold ice days ? Been a little confused reading this thread recently …if we are no careful this cold spell can come a go with no significant snow hence a period to forget ……hope not !!!!

See it fairly regular CC although I must admit its usually cold to mild

I love cold and snow but Iiving in south wales I am loving this dry cold calm weather ! beats rains and storms by a million miles second best option for me. lets see what Feb brings !

I have to agree GFS been as worst as its ever been for consistency this winter.......its well behind the euros as it stands !!

isnt this pub run though ..................GFS will be back to raging northerly

Seen so many of these type charts so far this winter .......maybe one day one will come off law of averages and all that ! maybe 10% chance and that's being generous but I have no actual clue what % chance it is maybe less than 1% ....but non the less the sight of charts like this never ever fail to excite me ! fool that I am lol

so predictable ...poor performance of late. feels like ECM is the only model we need to be paying attention to.