goosey007

GFS again continues with the trend of moving the heaviest precipitation south west with only the far far south west getting anything these 6 hour intervals are somewhat deceiving though especially at this range ..so all not lost for more widespread snow chances.....im sure if it was rain it be a direct hit however ! lol

Bone dry

From a selfish point of view hoping for slight corrections northwards for some the heaviest precipitation....however the opposite seems to be happening and its trending south on every model run as we get closer! anybody have any thoughts on where this could end up ? and is the GFS at all reliable at 4 days out lol

Latest Ecm doesn't show day after tomorrow type snow depths and probably a more realistic outcome ...still showing a nice amount in southern england this could easily move north or south by 100miles quite easily ......stay tuned to the forecast!

UKMET amplification

My sister went up to that and said it was really good ….anyway storm due Monday night Tuesday morning looking at the latest ecm think there will be plenty of twists and turns to come but most models have it comming in Monday or Tuesday its marginal though expect likes of Newport Cardiff Swansea to struggle a bit on the coast but inland altitude i.e Cwmbran upwards and Caerphilly upwards should do well I.e 15 to 25 cm widely ….if it lands as modelled don’t take this as gospel at 5 days out though ….and pray for upgrades in uppers and Dew points ! south wales in the sweet spot as it stands …

Wow you managed to land all the snow and melt it all I nearly one sentence ….who needs the models

Agreed all i look for these days is a big snow event .....long lasting deep cold and your just bound to be disappointed

its pleasing to the see off the GFS giving its recent performance....

Latest Gem has my backing ….on a serious note plenty of twists and turns to come as always with uk snow and cold ……things are certainly more interesting the even 4 5 days ago! Have a good day all

Thanks Ali was hoping it was as simple as that ! so can I say the double digit snow rows showing for 3 consecutive days is an even greater signal ?!

Hi all great buzz in here tonight must be something brewing ….ps can anybody give me a brief overview of what a snow row is I get the higher the number the greater the chance but how does it correlate to the ensembles graph ? First year I think I have seen snow row mentioned unless I have been living in a cave

as always depends where you are in the uk i guess ...cold and sunny will take any day of the week over this wet damp dross

Fair play I admire your positive approach to looking for uk cold ......i guess it this way or despair! Just read an article on how warm and wet it is right across Europe particularly in the ski resorts ! 20c in Switzerland in JAN not good ! So it appears we are very much not alone this year....

Well a very poor period of model watching it has to be said for cold lovers …just more January rain and mush ….last year in January high pressure cold dry and sunny was most welcome compared to this ……going by statistics jan has been poor for cold and snow in the uk over the last 30 years with the exception being 2013 so pinning my hopes on Feb !

I enjoy reading your posts the way they are @tight isobar brings untold character to the forum …..horses for courses and all that !

yes it will we are due ! happy new year all health and happiness …keep the excellent forum going some excellent posters !!

wow USA Canada insane weather ….lived in welland Ontario about 20 mins from buffalo until I was 8 I don’t think I’d need the urge to look for snow if I still lived there ….relatives that still live there said this year has been one of the worst they can remember for snow ! Any way this chart from gfs made me smile …..m4 cold/snow shield in full operation over uk …..merry Xmas eve all enjoy your day what ever you are doing ….

Arrrragh!!!! Right feels like now is no better time for a model break …look at all this rain ..anyway we do have Xmas to look forward too let’s hope for a decent cold shot end of jan early February think thats the best we can hope for now …..but I guess we can never know ! Merry Christmas all have a good one and try not to worry too much about the weather !

Yes it’s commendable you are watching developments so closely for uk cold when your not in the country ! I cursed my luck when to Florida on 06th feb 2009 ! I was pig sick

Think Cyprus may have a better chance ….tongue and cheek of course. I am still hoping for an Xmas period miracle

It’s the uks safest route to cold and snow a la feb 96 all this Greenland stuff just too risky

GFS still showing boxing day snow for south wales .......its been on and off all week I guess we will know if its possible thursday eve/Friday am models run all depends on that colder air getting south sooner!

Tells you everything you need to know

Compelling viewing ….just don’t know what the models are going to throw up in the morning think this is craziest period of model viewing I’ve whitnessed maybe due to the fact that Xmas is is the mix ….also that 1927 temp comparison is nuts ! ps 20feet of snow in places in 1927 I’d take 5% of that !!!