goosey007

Double Dutch

not certain enough to issue any warnings for south east wales on saturday majority of coastal regions actually ....hopefully they will upgrade closer to the event as they become more certain...overall a positive step seeing as saturday 3/4 days away...so room to move either way....thursday/friday less so. .....but the warning for sunday 31st came out last minute so you never know.

yes looks surreal against the backdrop of sun shining

Unfortunately no consistency from the models from last night...and certainly no upgrade as we draw closer. Its a case of the models are flipping and flopping as cold air is really dense and hard to shift and professional i.e the met are not willing to put there head on the chopping block as yet. I would say nothing will firm up until thursday afternoon ......so until then its just a wait and see ...Saturday look most promising as we stand.

Feb 96 replayed almost...hold that block must ! ....important not to get to far ahead of ourselves though as it chops and changes run to run ....consistency we need now.

Yep saturday look okay too on gfs front not moving very far ...positive steps tonight ....could see some upgrades on the forecast if the trend continues.....all to play for

Hopefully a new trend

Gfs follows icon to a degree

All this talk of breakdowns and stalling fronts got me thinking of Feb 1996 ....14 I was at the time and I dont remember it being particularly cold beforehand. But I went to indoor football training and it started to rain in the afternoon of Monday 06th and just thought nothing of it we had nothing like these forums to keep on top of things then lol not sure at 14 I was that clued up anyway. Well It started to sleet around 7pm then someone shouted its snowing to which my mate said aww I hope is snows a foot deep so I can have a week off school!! I laughed having not witnessed any snow in years...thinking no chance. I got home at 8ish and It was still not really settling then but from 9pm it started by 10pm total coverage and it kept mounting up I couldnt believe it I could not sleep i was checking the tele text and it just said further heavy snow lol....I got up to 20cm in newport wow best ever snow event in wales I have had. And a week off school just perfect no wonder I love snow so much lol

well according to metcheck ive got 10cm by sunday evening ...boom boom baby...shame it will change by the morning

well if depends what they mean exaclty if they mean more likely to see snow from the fronts than rain then I guess you could say cold wins...but if they are referring to longer term then the 2zs should be more interesting. They cant be taking the recent raw output all that seriously... just watched it .....hard to say what she means no detail lol

May do jay you can see how it intensified near porthcawl...bristol channel may be our friend here

they still cannot decide ...so if uncertainty is what you are saying i would agree

Think thursdays settling snow is crucial to saturdays as if we see 2 to 4 cm widely thursday night friday morning this could bring 2m temperatures down a degree or two to land Saturday on the right side of marginal for many areas. Seen this on the 24th jan ..3 to 4 degrees was forecast as the high that day ..but once the snow was on the ground max temperature went to 1 degree at the last minute.......its not the be all and end all but in very marginal set ups can swing the balance

well ill stick my neck out and say we will definitely see falling snow before monday 15th is out .....it just going to be a case how it interacts with the block once its over the the UK as to whether it is falling but not settling or settles then quickly melts or settles and sticks around a day or so a la 24th Jan this year .....the latter is obviously the best case scenario.

I agree with this sentiment .......they are looking the day after tomorrow type scenario with 48 72 hour blizzard..with the odd wind up merchant is often carnage in there. Oh and often is poor due to there location ..usually the south east!!!!

Best thing I've read all week ....good update Keith....hope your spot on

A good read thanks ....8 degrees for Monday on bbc dampens my enthusiasm into next week ...

yes interested to see the ECM tonight ....

12z gfs alot better for end of the week ..showing 12 hours of snow at various different rates

agree Thursday day looks dry and cold........

Then again sunday ..... little more uncertain at 6/7 days away ...but are definitely in the fireing line look at the potential 12 noon ....then 6pm moved about 75 miles tops! just sat over us!

72 hours away roughly BOOM BABY BOOM has the chance of just sitting on top of us and dumping its load!

the chart above I assume you are referring to is for Friday morning.......todays snow showers definitely from the east

like the Gettysburg charge......be a close call if the beasterly just blows it away!