goosey007

Going to move north and south at this range …..however don’t want other subsequent models and runs keeping with a southern track trend that for sure

uk snow shield on full power here

However is certainly not a resounding 'NO' like a lot of the time

Thanks for the updates Andy ......shame its all a bit out in FI..... especially ref snow detail ........ Encouraging non the less let see what occurs! also ref dec 2010 the fact this will be late winter/early spring suggests it wont be as potent for most....

The walls are closing in on winter at a rate of knots !

240!

that would be somewhat logical giving the vast differences in the modelling we are currently seeing ..........but they must all look V similar a T72 SURELY ! another thing on my mind this GFS upgrade must be good at modelling at least some scenarios other models struggle with maybe this it that scenario! just rubbish at 80% of others

But if its moved to a half way solution at day 7 surely there is enough runs/time for to full on gfs solution ....of course the same can be true if we said it can still be a full on YUKMO solution i.e 0z

I would say all the other models not supporting it and the fact its performed like this recently on its own i.e mid dec 2022.......its not 100% evidence its wrong this time of course but its enough for me to be more than sceptical of its recent output! .....i would love for it to be correct but recent history for type of cold here not in its favour either

about as close as it gets on the EC op tonight ….feels like it’s putting us out of our misery early doors …not ready to call it another GFS horror show until we see a few more runs …..

Well we had extreme heat last summer perhaps extreme cold is on the cards this winter ….GFS is certainly providing some entertainment if nothing else …..

This will be the third time GFS has led us down the garden path this will be the biggest one of the Lot

I did sense a more interested input just recently ...makes sense now

wheres your money Nick ?

Better looking cold plunge on the ecm 0z v 12z and the coldest air further west at a slightly earlier time frame …..interesting times ahead one feels …..so nearly

Looking by the latest out output looks like any cold snowy weather will only possible post mid Feb …. But let’s not write off winter just yet many forces at play with each other and none of us truely understand…..

Ian Brown ….. Now, that's a name I've not heard in a long time…… A long time.

Is the main hunt officially on ….more runs needed…..

Any bets for a Greenland high on the GFS 18z ?

Its performance is nothing short of comical …..why are we still taking about it ? Belongs with the navgem in the trash ….which is Shame old habits die hard

Can’t see it being worth the wait given this afternoon other 12zs ….

This winter so far gets the thumbs up from me ….had at least 10 harsh frosts which is very favourable to recent years and seen falling snow ….yes no major snow event ….yet but if we do in last 4 or 5 weeks of winter I think 2023 will go down as a fairly memorable one personally ….charts still showing northern cold punches so there is hope down the road …all about perspective when you live in the uk in 21st century not Scandinavia….. disclaimer : my perspective won’t stop me hunting for a 3 week deep freeze and multiple blizzard spell on the models …….

Yes its GFS at 220 but something to watch and hope for upgrades in the reliable ...looks short lived but if timed well could have a decent snow event.