Mark wheeler

I don't think anyone was taking last nights charts on the Ecm as gospel , however there is a trend going that way and the signs and Possibility** is still there . There was plenty of eps this morning still showing this kind of scenario such as the control run .

Brilliant post Well I hope we will beat that, and yeah thats being greedy

Seems the Ecm was not without support in its own ensembles. lets hope we can pull this off.

ECM is looking lovely too . Not too late for a bit of last warmth but the hunt for cold personally starts soon. But one last hurrah of warmth will be welcome here . last charts have a direct southerly , fantastic!!!! Can we have the reverse around the 25th of December please .

Ukmo gets warm in the south briefly. Gem also warm too and later on for quite a sustained period .

That's hilarious

Gfs still has the low causing issues in Ireland and areas through wales and then further north and Scotland . However even GFS is showing a scenario of settled weather now thereafter .It is ironic how most models took a settled outlook only to opt for a unsettled one , now we are back to the original scenario, I think ( and I stand corrected if not ) Tamara suggesting this was the path forward.

Thanks for this very informative post. @claret047 I think this answers your question.

Mogreps heading upwards , although there is a small cluster that goes the other way.

Ecm out to 144 . Looks good for a settling pattern , the low loses oomph too. edit - oh yeah

Firstly , I wish Your wife well and I hope all goes well tomorrow, sorry to hear you are both going through it and hope things improve soon. Regarding the threat of Mist , fog and low cloud I am going to be completely honest and say I am not sure but think it may well be a threat with an ever weakening sun, hopefully we can pick up a modest breeze to stop it forming but will leave that to the more knowledgeable to chip in . I will add this is not a done deal and the outlook remains uncertain at this juncture but fingers crossed we can get one last settled spell. All the best wishes Mark

UKMO 156 to 168hrs looking plumey too . Lovely Jubbly JMA also building in high pressure, the low pressure dominated charts are fading this evening, Gfs is on its own so far this evening.

Holy Moly that will get the heat haters thread going in October

Liking the UKMO this evening, the low fades away too looking forward to seeing the 168 chart.

The low pressure? UKMO had two on the 00z run this morning.

Yayyyy

Not today thank you .

Tonight favourite for me is the jma . not straw clutching at all , I knew yesterday evening as soon as I saw Navgem showing high pressure that the game was over .

18z vs 12z just for fun

Heard a few rumbles in the distance in the last 10mins . Looks like just missing here and travelling to the north east of me .

All the 12z runs at 168 hours . Ukmo and the Gem look to build high pressure but the others do not to varying degrees. I would be surprised if the Gem is right however it is not completely without support. Lets see what the ECM ens say. Interesting to see what happens whatever the outcome. I have also seen that Nigel is holding together better than expected and will stay a hurricane for a little longer than expected. Edit , oh how can I forget , I forgot to add the mighty Navgem that also has high pressure taking control which probably puts an end to that idea

A much improved UKMO run this afternoon to this morning which had low pressure steaming through. Meanwhile the Gem is also improved on its morning run . The low does arrive and gives Ireland and Scotland some stormy weather while further south and east holding on to warmer and more settled conditions.

Icon , further south and east holding onto more warmer and settled conditions. The low later on doesn't make much progress east on this particular run.

Looks like the far south east may get something soon as the squall seems to be re organising. Probably the wrong terminology, sorry .

Yeah it certainly has . Very heavy rain . Was expecting more windy conditions but not to be. Monty our normally outdoor cat is not amused and wants to go out . He won't of course as the door is open . Highly amusing when the dog came in going crazy. IMG_7254.MOV