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wiltshire weather
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Posts posted by wiltshire weather
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32 minutes ago, sukayuonsensnow said:
Met Office seem to have changed my weather forecast to show light snow for much of tonight here in NE Hampshire. Some parts south of me even getting heavy snow.
Wondering if they are catching onto the Thames streamer as winds go more E.
Still think radar watching is the best form of forecast in this case.
This was mentioned on the BBC local forecast just now, looks like they are seeing a Thames streamer setting up this evening across similar areas as last night as the wind switches back to a more NE direction.
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If only one of the shower trains like one from the Wash this morning would set up from the Thames we would be in business
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Great to see snow in some of the most snow starved areas overnight!
Wasn't expecting anything here and that's what we got!
As AWD posted the models have universally trended away from keeping the cold spell going after the weekend, although the Meto further update doesn't reflect this it has to be said......yet!
Snow chances today?
Looks like some southern coastal areas might be the best placed although with the wind more E/ENE today I'm hoping some showers might make it east up here. There seems some light stuff inching along the M4 corridor towards us at the moment.
I still think some areas of our region might see something on Thursday as that little feature moves south to north, most likely a Devon/Cornwall affair it looks like.
After that, not much on offer this morning with not even a decent possible snowy breakdown to post about but hopefully that will flip back again in the 12z runs.
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3 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:
It barely touches Dorset coast I’m confused?
Yes, on that model it only just about gets to the far east of Dorset, but I only posted it as an example..........
May not even get that far of course but the BBC graphic had it getting a bit further over and the forecaster mentioned it getting as far as Dorset so just flagging it up
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The streamer I mentioned a couple of posts back is already forming by the look of it. I guess as it's coming from the Thames Estuary this would be classed as a Thames Streamer?
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There's a band of showers looking like it may get down as far as the Dorset coast overnight and this was mentioned on the BBC local weather just now as possibly producing a couple of centimetres.
Here's the 18z Arpege which shows it very well:
Could be a snowy surprise for some in the morning!
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15 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:
I'll probably give it until Wednesday evening before writing off the Thurs / Fri snow potential. We're still within that timeframe where it can easily flip back again. This MetO vid was only posted a few hours ago and it's clear there's still lots of uncertainty:
Thanks for posting that.
Obviously the positioning of showers should not be taken literally but I did see he showed a batch making their way across to us during the day tomorrow. Also the feature on Thursday was there as well although I didn't see the channel streamer on there for later tomorrow.
Definitely worth keeping an eye on the radar
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A little bit of a disappointing day today after some avid radar watching
Still a few potential opportunities over the next few days across our region to at least see some snow falling on the Arpege 12z:
A few streamers reaching the east of our region during the day tomorrow.
A coastal streamer setting up along the south coast tomorrow afternoon/evening.
A feature moving north from the south coast on Thursday.
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Out for a very chilly walk with the dog and hoping this will make it a snowy one too
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6 minutes ago, Calneee said:
Taken this from @danm in the SE thread. Is it anything for us to get hopeful about?
Doesn't seem to be as it doesn't look as though it's going to move in our direction....
Edit... see Mapantz posts earlier for an explanation why
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I think the Lambourne Downs to the North East of me are blocking the heavier stuff getting through. Doesn't seem to get any further than Oxford except for a finger of heavier stuff making it to Swindon down the A420!
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I think there is a definitely possibilty of some more organised snow Tuesday into Weds in the east of our region looking at the FAX charts:
The one for Tuesday shows a convergence line through the Wash which moves south into Weds:
Here's where it ends up on Weds:
One to keep an eye on.
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Looks like that developing area of heavier snow is going to miss me but a line from Oxford to Swindon and then further SW from there looks possible to get a few cm if it reaches you:
It does seem to be expanding though currently so hopefully I will just catch the southern edge of it. Still snowing lightly here as I type.
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The 'streamer' has now reached me and it's now snowing the heaviest it's been all day, but still very light in nature!
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6 minutes ago, The Moving Planet said:
Actually just seen where the BBC are getting it from. They expecting a stremer to make it all the way down into Dorset tomorrow morning.
I'm guessing this one shown on the Arpege 6z:
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14 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:
Does anyone know why nominally the same NE airflow causes the shower pattern to appear so different over East Anglia and the South-East (larger smudges of light/medium-intensity precipitation) whereas The Wash northwards it is a more typical shower pattern with many small blobs of medium/high-intensity?
A complete guess but I would imagine as pressure is lower the further south you go, there is more cloud and light snow amongst the heavier shower type activity, whereas north of the Wash it's higher pressure and so just showers with blue sky in between?
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Latest GFS is showing something interesting moving north for some snow starved areas of our region Thursday morning (and has been showing something like this a few times on recent runs):
Very much subject to change of course but it does look to me though that in general, the models are now trending away from keeping the real cold going much longer after the weekend, so am hoping this week delivers at least something for all!
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1 minute ago, That ECM said:
I don't why they show it like that as it suggests heavy snow but if you look at the 'Chance of Precipitation' row there's actually a very low chance of it happening!
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9 minutes ago, AWD said:
Latest UKV extended for Thursday night into Friday still shows the front making it over many parts of the West Country;
Worth noting a couple of things;
- this is a higher res model, used frequently by the Meto etc, so whilst far from infallible still, would hopefully have a better handle at the situation than some low Res global modelling.
- it shows quite a prolonged fall of snow over inland parts of Devon, circa 12 hours or so.
- for balance, it does show a return to less cold conditions after the front has passed through, for most of the region (ie next weekend onwards). However, this is still a fair way off yet, as we have seen the "breakdown" go from Thursday to Friday and now to the weekend.
Thanks @AWD. Really wish I'd taken up the winter sale offer for NW Xtra now! What is the the UKV showing for today/tmrw?
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The snow line has made it across the A34 and we have some very light snow now fingers crossed it's makes it further over to the West
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Only got time to flick through the models this morning but looks like there are still some snow chances over the next few days, probably more likely tomorrow as the wind swings round to a more E/ENE direction:
GFS 00z for tomorrow lunchtime:
Arpege 00z for the next 48 hrs:
The snow at the moment to my east seems to only be making it as far as the A34 from Oxford to Southampton but hopefully something will make it further later!
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Morning everyone. We had a good dusting from the snow that reached us last night
so very happy to have that.
Currently -3.1c and a few snow flakes blowing in the wind.
Looking at the radar for last night, looks as though a few to the west and sw of me will have had a dusting as well, but it fizzled out before it got to Bristol.
Haven't gone through the models yet but the radar is showing lots of light snow steadily advancing SW so fingers crossed it makes it to our region intact:
Lots of radar watching today I think!
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Just checking the FAX charts and notice the latest one for Weds has a convergence line cutting into the south east of our area. Could be some decent snow from that if it happens..
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Strangely though Arpege is not showing any of the snow currently on the radar over the NE:
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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 08 Feb 2021 Onward
in Regional
Posted · Edited by wiltshire weather
It's actually started snowing quite heavily here in the last few minutes, so there is hope for you guys to the West of me