[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

HIRLAM keeps some snow going through tomorrow as well for a lot of the region:

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

Just now, jethro said:

How accurate are those usually? That's quite an increase in predicted snowfall for here.

It performed pretty well last year during The Beast as I recall.

Will be interesting to see if it does well for this event as it keeps the snow going in my location for most of the day tomorrow as well!

Interestingly it matches the forecast on my Meto weather app almost exactly!!

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

Looking at the latest HIRLAM run, it seems to have it about right for the current time:

Assuming it continues to be about right, this is what should be on the ground tomorrow morning:

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

Doesn't look like it's pivoting yet to me if you run the radar sequence. Just heading steadily in a NE direction.

I guess you should be able to see when it starts pivoting as the precipitation in the Irish Sea will start travelling south-westwards/south which it isn't doing yet.

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

Just checking the Arpege which looked great earlier.... ....has shunted everything north, not what we want to see!

Seems to be a trend this evening in the models (moving things north) but hopefully will trend back south in the morning!!

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

NetWx not interested in Thursday

Definitely not a done deal yet by the look of it as to where will see snow and where will not!

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

The latest Arpege run for Thursday is amazing if it comes off!

Heavy snow from late afternoon all the way through to Friday morning for quite a bit of our region:

Accumulated snow from now until 0700 Friday:

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

According to the Hirlam model run at 6am, there should be quite a lot of snow falling from the showers later on over the West Country. 

Accumulated snow totals at 1300 tomorrow:

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards]

A soggy good morning all. Hopefully this rain will clear up somewhen today. No sleet/snow here, looks from the radar that's mostly over Wales and North of Oxford.  Maybe some over the Moors.

Just had a quick flick through the models and there is still no agreement on the track of low pressure over the weekend and as a consequence, what temperatures/weather type we will get. Maybe the 12z runs will finally agree but for now I'll stick with the analysis i did yesterday I think!

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards]

6 minutes ago, Nights King said:

I thought hirlam was all for it yesterdays runs? 

See what happens on the 12z 

Certainly was, but dropped it on the 0z run, whos to say it wont bring it back again !

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards]

So the chopping and changing of the models continues today with varying solutions over the next few days.

Still, a likelihood of some wintriness tomorrow, probably sleet and wet snow for many as shown on the NW short range model:

I note though that our favourite short ranger of late, the HIRLAM doesn't show any snow at all for our region.

 

As for the Easter weekend, with low pressure either over the SW or nearby, Friday/Saturday is likely to be wet, breezy and pretty miserable. I wouldn't be surprised to see some wintriness as temps are going to be below average.

Sunday looks like we might be in between two LP systems so maybe the dryer day, Monday sees another LP moving in with more wet weather, could be some more wintriness as temperatures have dropped away Sunday night.

As for the following week, seems as though the models are sniffing out a colder pattern again with a northerly setting up for a few days. The GFS 6z has flipped to this from a milder solution and the overnight ECM hinted at this I think. Cold enough for some more widespread snow it seems as well:

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards]

So, even now there's still uncertainty regarding this week (from Weds onwards).

With the way it's trending, I'm still not going to put my hat, scarf and gloves away just yet!

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards]

I think I'll still keep my hat, scarf and gloves handy.

There is still a lot of uncertainty about how the weather is going to pan out even as soon as Weds/Thurs next week in my view.

You've only got to look at the latest ICON run to see that:

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards]

36 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

Downgrade alert! I would like a cold and snowy Easter but hopes are now low. My cut off point for wanting cold weather is now 15th April. My cold weather excitement will be back on November 15th. Very low chance, but this might come back at T120, like the 2nd Beast from the East last weekend trip. 

Yep, looks like for us down south, the likelihood of an Easter cold, snowy spell has all but disappeared on the main models this evening.

Still time for it to change of course but that's how it looks right now.

I wouldn't have minded if it was exchanged for some lovely springlike and sunny weather but that looks in short supply unfortunately 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards]

16 minutes ago, wiltshire weather said:

As the beginning of Easter comes into range of the UKMO, looks to me that the recurring theme (at the moment anyway!) is very much how I posted yesterday:

UKMO, GFS and ICON for Thursday 29th have that LP anchored to the West/South West of us feeding up increasingly milder air. Unfortunately, I would imagine this means mild, damp and drab weather for us over Easter. Yuk!

      

The ECM may still keep its colder evolution later but if it does, it's looking increasingly isolated!

EDIT: I missed out the GEM which although looking very similar on the 29th actually moves the low SE allowing cold and snow to spread in on Easter Sunday

EDIT no 2. - looks like the GFS also takes the LP SE eventually and brings in cold and snow for Easter Monday, although its fairly short lived.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards]

As the beginning of Easter comes into range of the UKMO, looks to me that the recurring theme (at the moment anyway!) is very much how I posted yesterday:

UKMO, GFS and ICON for Thursday 29th have that LP anchored to the West/South West of us feeding up increasingly milder air. Unfortunately, I would imagine this means mild, damp and drab weather for us over Easter. Yuk!

      

The ECM may still keep its colder evolution later but if it does, it's looking increasingly isolated!

EDIT: I missed out the GEM which although looking very similar on the 29th actually moves the low SE allowing cold and snow to spread in on Easter Sunday

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards]

I am not sure where this is going right now. The latest snow depth chart from the ECM for Good Friday suggests some fairly significant snowfall, in the North of our region and over high ground further south.

Still a long way to go before the run-up to Easter and Easter itself is pinned down.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards]

Where there does seem to some agreement currently is that come Good Friday, we could well be under the influence of a low-pressure system out to the west or south west of us, with a resulting breeze coming roughly from a southerly direction:

  

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards]

Just to illustrate the big differences currently in the models, 144hr charts from UKMO, GFS, ICON and GEM 12z runs:

   

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards]

1 minute ago, Leon1 said:

why cant we just see some model agreement for once! i suspect it won't really come into place of what easter will be like until sometime late this weekend or early next week.

I think you may be right !

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There are so many options on the table for Easter at the moment I'm just going to refrain from posting any more snapshots of model runs until some agreement is reached!

At least I'll try to stop myself anyway... 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards]

Well the pub run has excelled itself again:

Rain to snow on Thurs 29th:

Snow to rain on Sat 31st:

Turning back to snow on Sunday 1st 

And then snow somewhere in our region pretty much every day through to Friday 6th including a nationwide snow event on Tues 3rd (which carries on into Weds 4th):

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards]

22 minutes ago, wiltshire weather said:

Looks quite shortlived on this run with the cold being shunted away again the next day and milder weather moving in from the west.

Edit: Although the cold then gets pulled back across again a few days later!

Lots of different evolutions now for Easter (in fact as Karlos1983 mentions differences even before then), so I would say a cold, snowy spell is still very much a possibility but not so much as it was looking like this morning!

Will be interesting to see what the ECM does later.

This is obviously going to chop and change a lot over the coming days.

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards]

15 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Why wait until actual Easter ?GFS says let’s kick things off a week Tomorrow 

not that I’m looking or am remotely interested yet 

Looks quite shortlived on this run with the cold being shunted away again the next day and milder weather moving in from the west.

Edit: Although the cold then gets pulled back across again a few days later!

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

My bet now is that the models will drop the idea or depth of cold, before running with it again a couple of days later... 

I think so too, but whatever your preference for the type of weather, it certainly makes it interesting watching how it unfolds, just like the last two.