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wiltshire weather
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Posts posted by wiltshire weather
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That streamer all the way from Cambridge is nearly over me now...
Should continue moving west I think.
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1 hour ago, Isleofwightsnowgal74 said:
Do you think this will reach the Isle of Wight at all? If so when? Ta
It's possible of course and John Hammond mentions a channel streamer which could deliver. Looking at the models I think Tuesday might be the day to watch for that so keep your eye on the radar!
Edit: Keep an eye on the radar tonight as well as the band of light snow to the east of you is inching ever so slowly west....
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Interesting animation from the 12z Arpege that demonstrates how it thinks the shower distribution will pan out over the next 24 hours.
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7 minutes ago, Leon1 said:
Have some snow symbols appearing on Met Office forecast now, possibly picking up on the potential showers and streamers into tomorrow?
So there are! Some appeared for the early hours here and for most of tomorrow morning
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As per @AWD excellent posts, the latest 6z GFS is beginning to pick up some of these streamers such as this overnight/tomorrow morning:
Encouraging signs....
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2 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:
Where on earth are all the showers? What is the point in getting colder uppers if that is all they achieve?
I'm assuming that the long range global models are not going to show shower activity very well at that timescale.
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Current temp 1.4c and we have some light flurries of snow blowing in the wind although nothing on the radar ...
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Sadly nothing here either overnight. Very windy and cold but still just above freezing atm.
Flicking through the models this morning there seems little on offer for our region until Friday although I'm still expecting some sort of shower activity to make it over from the east at some point.
The Tues/Weds snow looks currently off the cards apart from maybe the far west but that could change again of course.
Friday looks the best chance for anything substantial and on current output it looks as though most of our region has a good chance apart from those of us in the east as it doesn't get this far according to some models!
Thereafter it's looking still cold but pretty dry for a while which is something I guess....
Fingers crossed for some upgrades to our snow chances for the coming week in the model output through today
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3 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:
Gem stalls the low over the uk?
The low pressure system gets held out to the west and the associated precipitation gets as far as the chart I posted before fizzling out.
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Just to throw this in to show the possibilities, on the GEM 12Z the front on Friday barely makes it to my house before stalling!
And so far the models are all showing some sort of a return to even colder weather the following week via a huge Scandi high.
Lots to be resolved and things to fall into place but certainly a fascinating period of weather watching atm.
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12 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:
Aspege and icon 12z take it into the channel again every 6 hours it changes. The icon had it up to Bristol S.Wales earlier
Icon still has it making it up most of the West Country though at least but it will change again I'm sure!
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Yes, def looks like the chances for tonight/tomorrow are diminishing as we speak, but you never know! I'll still be watching it on the NW radar to see how it unfolds.
Met office long range updates have changed again (for the good):
Thursday 11 Feb - Saturday 20 Feb
A cold start to the period with strong easterly winds. Heavy and frequent snow showers are likely across northern and eastern areas, especially over northeastern England and eastern Scotland. Nevertheless, plenty of bright sunny weather is likely further south, although there is a small threat of persistent snow and rain across parts of southwest England on Thursday. As the period progresses, it will be remaining cold or very cold with brisk winds but potentially turning milder over southwestern then western areas for a time. Outbreaks of rain and showers are likely across western and northern areas, whilst mostly dry and bright in the east and southeast. Further snow and attendant wintry hazards continuing to affect northern areas but possibly becoming increasingly settled by the end of the period.
Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Sat 6 Feb 2021
Saturday 20 Feb - Saturday 6 Mar
After a potential spell of milder and wetter conditions for most likely western parts, probably a return to colder and drier conditions overall. Whilst overall conditions are likely to remain cold, there is a continued chance for unsettled, milder interludes arriving from the west or southwest. These may produce a risk of disruptive snowfall during transition periods. Increased confidence at the end of February and the start of March for cold and mostly dry conditions. However, there remains a greater than normal threat of disruptive winter hazards for all areas through this period, with snowfall possible for all areas, but most likely in the east.
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And just to show an example of how the cold may not really let go at all this is as far as the mild air gets at the end of the week (according to 6z GFS). This is Saturday evening:
before the cold starts pushing back (Sunday evening shown):
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3 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:
Gfs has it just scraping the coast why do they keep flipping it’s too much
It's certainly knife edge stuff isn't it! It's one of those occasions when just 50 miles north or south makes such a difference!
And as @Cleeve Hill just posted, a new weather warning has just popped up for some of our area. Expect more over the coming days I think!
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18 minutes ago, festivalking said:
Snow risk increased with 6z icon run. Further north too. Dare I say purbeck might get some too?
Yes the Icon 6z goes on to actually push this system across our whole region:
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Looking through all the overnight runs all to play for this coming week with snow chances aplenty I think!
Tonight/tomorrow looks as though at least the eastern parts of our region may get a covering.
Monday onwards those showers could penetrate well over to our side of the world and if they band together or a disturbance forms (highly likely imho) then who knows what will come our way!
Then Tuesday night into Weds there is potential for snow in the south and west, possibly even reaching up here.
And then we start looking at the end of the week where the breakdown snow may well not get very far across the country before being pushed back.
And to cap it all it's beginning to look like the cold air is going to fight back (or never really go away!) even down here and potentially could turn even colder going into the following week.
Phew!
I'll be glued to my radar from tonight onwards for much of the week I think
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4 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:
Aspege giving us a chance of snow from the channel low Tuesday. 2-5cm looks possible if comes off! Looks to me it’s moved north. Is Apege a good model? icon says no and gfs just scrapes the coast.
Interesting! The Arpege is a good short range model but hasn't done very well with getting snow distribution bang on so far this winter I believe. Nevertheless, good to see.....
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4 minutes ago, Singularity said:
I must say, that Met Office update seems overly confident in a milder interlude given how many 00z EPS members stayed cold in the south through the weekend having disrupted that big trough sufficiently.
No denying it's a bit of a large deep feature in the current modelling consensus though - adjustments to something weaker and less organised will be needed. We've seen that a lot in recent weeks, mind!
Yes, that struck me as quite a change in their wording. Will be interesting to see what the 12z models show but for me, I'll think it will change again as we go into next week....
Just now, Rapodo said:They seem confident for a return to cold too. Be interesting how it all pans out. Although they say milder they actually cover themselves by not saying how mild. Is it an extra 2oC or 10? It's quite an open book really.
They're very good at covering all the bases for sure !
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I see the Meto have updated their forecast for later next week and are now going for some sort of a change next weekend by the look of it :
Wednesday 10 Feb - Friday 19 Feb
A cold start to the period with strong eastern winds. Heavy and frequent snow showers are likely across northern and eastern areas, especially over north eastern England and eastern Scotland. Nevertheless, plenty of bright sunny weather is likely further south. There is a small threat of persistent snow and rain across parts of southwest England, most likely on Wednesday. As the period progresses, remaining cold or very cold with brisk winds, but turning milder over southern and southwestern areas. Outbreaks of rain and showers are likely across western areas, whilst mostly dry and bright in the north and the east. Further snow and attendant wintry hazards continuing to affect northern areas but becoming increasingly confined over higher ground during the weekend.
Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Fri 5 Feb 2021
However, the extended forecast is very interesting
Friday 19 Feb - Friday 5 Mar
After a milder and wetter interlude, probably a return to colder and drier conditions overall. Whilst overall conditions are likely to remain cold, there is a continued chance for unsettled, milder interludes arriving from the west or southwest. These may produce a risk of disruptive snowfall during transition periods. Increased confidence at the end of February and the start of March for cold and mostly dry conditions. However, there remains a greater than normal threat of disruptive winter hazards for all areas most of February, with snowfall possible for all areas, but most likely in the east.
Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Fri 5 Feb 2021
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Living up in the far north east of the region, I'm still hoping to see something out of this cold spell other than freezing my wotsits off when walking the dog!
Been around long enough to have seen many similar events to that which we're expecting end of next week and can remember several where the forecast was for the front to pass through and turn to rain whereas in reality they often didn't even reach us! Of course the opposite is also true but until the cold is well and truly in, I think the models may well struggle to get a handle on what's likely to happen, so will not be taking much notice of them until Mon/Tues for the likely solution. As others have posted, even if it does break down next weekend, it looks very much as though the cold will be back again not too long after.
As for the next few days, I'm not sure this weekend has been resolved yet with several short range models showing a period of snow at least as far west as Bristol if not further overnight into Sunday. This is no dry easterly setting up either, especially down here, so I would expect to see surprise features and disturbances pop up at short notice, any of which could easily make it over to the West Country in the strong flow.
So, plenty to keep the interest going and hopefully that front pushing up from the south Mon/Tues will make it far enough north to give all of you over in the far south and west a good dumping of snow
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34 minutes ago, Singularity said:
I'm afraid I must red flag this; it's not entirely accurate analysis.
The contour lines show the flow at 500 mb, which dictates the movement of surface weather systems, not the mean direction of surface flow.
The upper ridge to the west supports surface ridges with northerly or north-easterly flow on their eastern flank. The trough to the east of that supports areas of low pressure over mainland Europe, much as we've seen in a good few model runs so far today, which also support spells of northerly to north-easterly flow in the vicinity of the UK.
Now, it's true that the ridge-trough setup is not pronounced enough to lend confidence to a sustained N to NE flow across the UK, but there's a reasonable chance that it occurs for long enough to move some notably cold air in our direction. How far it makes it, is anyone's guess.
I am only just trying to work out how these anomaly charts work after getting some pointers from @John Holmes, so just to illustrate the example to aid in my understanding to see if I'm grasping it correctly, here is the GFS 500MB Wind Chart for the 21st Jan which roughly matches the solid green lines on the NOAA chart (edit: I know the anomaly charts are showing the mean flow over a number of days but it seems to correlate quite well with this chart from the middle of the period!)
And now the GFS 500hPa Geopot. Height Chart for the same date/time which gives an idea of how the pressure patterns at the surface might look:
As far as I know I think the dotted lines show the pressure anomalies rather than the actual surface pressures.
Hopefully I'm interpreting that correctly!
WW
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13 minutes ago, CharmlessMan said:
Still snowing nicely here south of Marlborough but looks like it will fizzle out soon. Definitely at the higher end of my expectations! Work is closed too so all good
I wouldn't be surprised to see all that snow to the NW of us gradually pull down to the S/SE so may not be quite over just yet!
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Dont really understand the Meto amber warning currently. Heaviest snow risk seems to be to the west between Newbury and Bristol.
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Still bone dry up here in the far NE of our region, unfortunately.
Looks to be headed our way still but sure is slow going!
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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward
in Regional
Posted · Edited by wiltshire weather
Snow streamers aplenty showing up on the 18z Arpege over the next 48hrs or so: