birdman
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Posts posted by birdman
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40 minutes ago, Snowman. said:
Usually it just ends up with one thread completely dead and the other extremely active. It has been semi-tried with one thready being model discussion and another being a cold chase.
Who would dictate where FI starts? Too many logistics to work out, FI is still model discussion and the regionals are for weather closer to the current day. Current thread is fine you dont have to read every post you can just skip them.
Fair points. Just seems to me they're as useful as a chocolate fireguard but as you say, they're valid charts nonetheless
I suppose at the moment FI starts in 5 days time!
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58 minutes ago, Wivenswold said:Could we pin this to the top of every page on the MOD thread and leave it there forever? It's so much easier to refer those hyperventilating over permutation 34 at day 9 to this invaluable advice rather than explain how it all works.....again.
There should be a seperate thread for the FI timeframe nonsense! Would massively improve the quality of this one.
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Not t sure why the Met Office didn't put out flood warnings for today instead of snow as we've had alot of rain overnight topping up already high river levels.
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Been snowing for last 30 mins here in West Oxon. Looks like we're right on the back edge and the band is moving north - or at least contracting north - so looks like won't see much more out of this!
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1 hour ago, Leon1 said:
@MidnightSnow Well the MAD thread is in full meltdown tonight!
It's like a bunch of drug addicts looking for the next hit followed by the inevitable crushing low of cold turkey. They literally repeat that day after day, a truly unique bunch very entertaining though and of course informative too
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Looks like there is alot of rain before it transitions to snow. Certainly that's the forecast for West Oxon at the moment. Anyone think it will be cold enough to actually settle? I'm not so sure?
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19 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:
Different posters like to discuss different things. For example some post the clusters, some the ensembles and some like to post 384hr FI charts. Personally I prefer to discuss snow fall and it’s location when it’s within a few days. There is an ignore function which can use to tailor your experience on here, so if you don’t want to see posts about snow fall and charts discussing it then please hit ignore on me
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Back on topic and here is the 18z Harmonie model, probably best of the bunch this evening for widespread snow. Arpege has plenty of precip but is mainly rain or sleet ...
Don't worry, I like the short term models too. Better than that jab in the arm buzz/cold turkey FI stuff lol
Saturday doesnt look particulary snowy to me could be more of a messy transitional affair?
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Hope that lump makes it down to West Oxon! Nice to get a bit of a top up!
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About 6cm here in West Oxon. Just a few flakes falling now as the band clears East. Temp is -1
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Quite tropical this morning in West Oxon at 9c although temp is starting to dip now. Just look at these the temp differences between here and the midlands! Dont suppose there will any snowflakes for us today lol
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It was much colder than forecast here in West Oxon last night at -4 !
It's currently 2 and very very grey. Was hoping for a sunny New year's day walk oh well! Have a good one whatever you're doing
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21 minutes ago, radiohead said:
ECM at 240 hours, 10 days ago:
ECM from this morning, 0 hours:
Cheers. Looks pretty damn close to my somewhat untrained eye!
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3 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:
Snow events are not something that can be forecast at such a range. They were trending for cold though, so we're certainly in the right ball park.
Thanks, yes I understand snow is difficult to forecast and its more about looking for the correct combination of parameters that are conducive for snow. I guess I was wondering how accurate the outputs are at that range but Its probably not a question of accuracy... more about the pattern or trend.
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7 to 10 days ago how did the models handle this current cold/snowy spell? (albeit minor snow event) Or isn't that something this particular thread dwells on?
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Starting to get a nice dusting here in West Oxon. Right under the pivot so might get another hour or two out of it!
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Still snowing near OXFORD Airport although looking at radar it might clear to the south west soon. Oxfordshire done well out of this!
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6 hours ago, andy_leics22 said:
How have you done in Witney?
Reminds me of that episode of 'Friends'... PIVOT.... PIVOT!!
About 6cm this morning so a decent covering and still snowing a bit!
I see it didn't get much further north in the end so better luck next time
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About 6cm West Oxon and snowing again...lots of schools shut!
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Yep it's still creeping north towards Coventry and starting to pivout westwards!
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Really coming down well here. Picking up too! Must be 2cm so far and radar looks like its going to deliver at least a couple of hours more.
Pivoting around Bath?
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4 minutes ago, Nick F said:
Our cat is chasing snow flakes in the back garden right now, bless him, under the light I put on to watch the snow come down. Only me and him up now to see if anything worthy comes.
Same
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4 minutes ago, Vmistry said:
Even Oxford looks like it is getting in on the act . A couple of hours ago it was struggling to get there
I'm in West Oxon and it's snowing quite nicely. Small dry flakes but doing the job! I always thought we were quite well placed for this although it looked touch and go earlier. ARPEGE and HIRLAM appear to have modelled this quite accurately
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Snowing nicely here in West Oxon! Very dry, grainy flakes!
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Everyone should know by now, from years and years of model/radar watching that snow is notoriously difficult to pin down and while there can be disappointment there are often unexpected surprises too. The forecasts and or models haven't promised anything and to be fair have actually looked reasonably accurate so far despite the slight north/south alterations.
Grab a beer, chill and see what unfolds
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Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
108 hrs is a very very long time the way the charts have been of late!